Re: Completely Unwoven: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 4.0
I think the basic human condition would make this a monumental failure. I disagree with some of the critics that it would "tank [a] country's economy." It just wouldn't. The lower and middle classes spend almost everything they earn. This would allow them to do two things: 1. Maybe save a little each month for retirement. 2. Allow them to live a slightly improved life.
I do agree with the criticisms that it would hinder the need for people to have a job. You should have to do something productive for the country to earn something. I'd be much, much more in favor of a WPA or TVA sort of program rather than a complete giveaway of money.
ETA: Besides, how would you even be able to test its effects? You would need an entire country to convert to this for at least two generations for it to be meaningful (in my opinion).
It seemed to me that the article primarily had two main points:
-- that we re-structure our existing social safety net away from
all specific programs and essentially turn them into what is called in the jargon a "block grant." No more SNAP / Section 8 / CHIPs / unemployment insurance / (perhaps even Medicaid?) and take all that money and "give" it to people directly so that they could then allocate it to spend however they saw fit.
(it seems to me that the left would never go for it since they don't trust people to be competent enough to make their own decisions, which is why we have all these separate programs to begin with; the right would like it because it would reduce government administrative costs tremendously).
-- that we remove the high marginal cost of moving off of a social safety net regime into a self-supporting regime. Everyone gets a basic income, and you can then supplement that however you want with incremental additional economic activity.
-- while not clearly stated in the article, I inferred that people with "high enough" incomes would basically just use whatever they received as their basic income to pay income taxes on their higher earned incomes. No doubt if it ever were implemented, you could just request a direct offset to begin with.
When I read that article, I liked the concept quite a bit. It addresses several structural problems all at the same time, and has enough in it to make both the left and the right grudgingly acknowledge the benefits (although both would do it in a backhanded, "yes, but..." manner).
An unintended consequence likely would be an even larger "off the books" economy than we already have. Another consequence would be a huge (one hopes temporary) spike in unemployment, as tens of thousands of government employees would no longer have special targeted programs to administer. in the long run, this consequence would have a hugely salutary effect, but the transition might be uncomfortable.
Depending on the details of how it is structured, and the level of the basic income, I could see how it would be an all-around winner, since it could both reduce taxes and also give people more value (the savings on administrative personnel costs would finance these improvements).
I'd like to see Medicaid replaced with vouchers for private insurance without any of the PPACA restrictions. The government never faces a financial incentive to innovate since they have no effective way to measure competence in administration. See: ongoing news stories about fraudulent billing.