Re: College Football 2010: Dude, Where's my Conference?
Uh, no. Wrong on all counts.
We'll jump only if the situation for either access to a championship or access for our non-football sports becomes untenable. Neither is true in the generic scenario you have posited.
As long as we have access to a championship, I'm fairly confident that the money will be fine. The Integer gets a similar payout to what we're getting right now, and they're going to need the TV network to be wildly successful to change that (particularly if they expand to 16 teams, because only ND and Texas have any prospect of paying for themselves).
That's why I said that you shouldn't sub ND for Rutgers. Rutgers and only Rutgers leaving the Big East is no threat to ND.
That second scenario is based on the assumption that the PAC-10 gets a second autobid if they go to 16 (which I don't think they will, so I guess this my discussion of it is pretty worthless; I'm sort of mixing two scenarios together big ten expansion and the pac-10 getting a second autobid). I think that would cause the Big Ten and SEC to both expand to 16 to get equal access. I think the big east would suffer in this extremely unlikely scenario, enough that notre dame would have to jump ship. Maybe not.
That being said, when it comes to Notre Dame, access to a championship is one thing, taking advantage of that access is another. With Notre Dame fading as a national powerhouse it once was, that money remains what it is, a pipe dream. So I don't see how mere access to a championship provides cash flow. Joining a conference with a TV network would not only make up for that lost cashflow, it would exceed it.
The other nightmare scenario for Notre Dame is if NBC doesn't renew. I have no idea which way NBC is leaning. So I'll leave that alone and hope someone with a better grasp on that comment. But if they don't renew, that's another chunk of cash no longer coming in.
Rutgers was originally announced as a team getting an invite, so I put this together back then. Obviously that didn't pan out and rumors of talks between Notre Dame and the Big Ten are starting to surface (but they are just that at this point, rumors). I'm not saying Rutgers leaving would cause Notre Dame to leave. I'm saying that it's possible for that 14-team scenario to work IF Notre Dame did leave.
Regarding your point about only Texas and Notre Dame paying for themselves, I disagree. A buddy of mine pointed out that Kansas would more than pay for itself as well. In fact, Kansas brought in $3 million more than Notre Dame in 2009.
So to sum it up, I guess I agree with you in that as long as cash flow doesn't become a problem, Notre Dame will probably remain where it is. However, if the landscape changes drastically, that's different.