Re: College Football 19-20: Where We Kinda Want Clemson As Champion.
So heading into the conference championship weekend, it would appear that this is where the playoff landscape sits:
Locks: Ohio State and LSU. From everything I've read, OSU and LSU are likely in regardless of whether they win next weekend. The Buckeyes obviously shredded the Badgers earlier, and a loss this next weekend would likely be offset by the previous victory. LSU played a pretty strong schedule and even with a loss to Georgia, the Tigers are likely in. Obviously, if there were a few key injuries and a blowout loss by either of these two teams, they may get bumped out, but for now, they are essentially locks to make the playoffs.
Win and you're in: Clemson and Georgia. While an argument could be made that Clemson should be in the same boat as the Buckeyes and LSU (i.e. even with a loss, they are "unequivocally" better than the other conference champions), given their relatively weak schedule, the Tigers need to beat Virginia to make the Playoff. If the Bulldogs knock off LSU, they will certainly be in. If either of these squads loses, they will be going to a New Years Six Bowl instead of the Playoff.
Win and need some help: Utah, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Wisconsin. I'll start with the obvious: the only way any of these teams have a shot to make the Playoff are if they win, and Georgia and/or Clemson lose. Wisconsin probably needs to beat Ohio State, and win big. No 2-loss team has ever made the Playoff. However, if the Badgers blow out the Buckeyes, they will at least be in the mix, as they would have beat four top-20 teams (Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, and Ohio State), and three of them (Michigan, Minnesota, and OSU) in convincing fashion. The Oklahoma-Baylor winner will also be in the conversation. The Big 12's best shot to get a team in is if Oklahoma wins, as the Sooners would have two top-15 wins (both against Baylor, once on the road, once at a neutral site), while Baylor's would only have one (against Oklahoma). Indeed, I think if Oklahoma wins (and either Georgia and/or Clemson lose), they will be the fourth team in, regardless of what happens with Utah. Speaking of the Utes, if they beat Oregon, that will likely be their only top-20 win. As a result, Utah may need to throttle the Ducks (and may need some help) to get in the Playoff. In sum, for this group (presuming again a Georgia and/or Clemson loss), it probably shakes out as follows: Oklahoma - Win and you're in; Utah - Win big coupled with Baylor win, and they are in; Baylor - Win coupled with a Utah with a narrow victory or a loss, and an Ohio State victory or a narrow Wisconsin victory, and the Bears get in; Wisconsin - Crush the Buckeyes, Oregon win, and Baylor win.
I think LSU has been the best team in the country all season, so I think they beat Georgia. Ohio State should knock off Wisconsin, and I believe that Clemson will get by Virginia. Oklahoma should also take down Baylor, so I believe the Playoff will be: LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, and Oklahoma. Clemson will be the #3 and Oklahoma will be the #4. The fight for #1 will be fierce. LSU would have beaten Texas (on the road), Florida (a Top 10 team), Auburn (a Top 12 team), Alabama (a Top 10 team on the road), and Georgia (a Top 10 team at a neutral venue). That's four top-12 teams, and a big name non-conference win. Ohio State would have beaten Wisconsin twice (a Top 15 team), Penn State (a Top 12 team), and Michigan (a Top 15 team, on the road). That's four wins over teams in the Top 15. Ohio State hasn't played a close game all season (only one game decided by less than three scores (Penn State, victory by 11)), while LSU has escaped with three wins by seven points or less. In other words, LSU probably has the better strength of schedule in the eyes of the committee, but Ohio State has been more dominant in its victories. It will likely come down to how these squads look next weekend. Personally, I think LSU is the better team, but I believe OSU will likely have the more impressive performance next weekend. Therefore, my Playoff prediction would be:
#1 Ohio State v. #4 Oklahoma (Peach Bowl, Atlanta, GA)
#2 LSU v. #3 Clemson (Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, AZ)
