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College Footbal 2009: Anybody want to be in the Top 5?

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Re: College Footbal 2009: Anybody want to be in the Top 5?

Terrierbyassociation said:
The funny thing is we added all these computers and usually the polls do just about as good a job.
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Well, the pollsters have access to the computer ratings, so it's not like they are independent measures. I think the computational modeling keeps the pollsters honest. No problem with including MOV as long as it tops out or is a log function, to curb the Bob Stoopes Effect.
 
Re: College Footbal 2009: Anybody want to be in the Top 5?

Alton said:
They do a better job of rating teams than the ratings that are part of the BCS, because they don't throw away data.
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The flip side, of course, being that they don't filter out noise, either. Sometimes MOV is meaningful, and sometimes there are funny bounces...
 
Re: College Footbal 2009: Anybody want to be in the Top 5?

LynahFan said:
The flip side, of course, being that they don't filter out noise, either. Sometimes MOV is meaningful, and sometimes there are funny bounces...
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Just looking at wins and losses also doesn't filter out "noise." Sometimes the result of a game is meaningful, and sometimes there are funny bounces...

The more data used, the better, as long as it is used intelligently. The best systems that use margin of victory as a factor will do a better job of predicting future games than the best systems that do not use margin of victory.

A page with 114 different ranking systems; pick your favorite:
http://www.mratings.com/cf/compare.htm
 
Re: College Footbal 2009: Anybody want to be in the Top 5?

Terrierbyassociation said:
The funny thing is we added all these computers and usually the polls do just about as good a job.
Click to expand...

Craig P. said:
The point of the objective rankings is to deal with the unusual cases.
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Kepler said:
Well, the pollsters have access to the computer ratings, so it's not like they are independent measures. I think the computational modeling keeps the pollsters honest. No problem with including MOV as long as it tops out or is a log function, to curb the Bob Stoopes Effect.
Click to expand...

There are two major things computer rankings do... they are able to measure of the weight and strength of everybody in the system. Traditional voters usually won't distinguish much between #50 and #100. They also attempt to weight using an explicitly stated heuristic... whatever it decides it does so impartially.

That's not saying it can't be wrong. The simplest "system" could be "point spread" or "winning percentage".

The major thing I think we've seen recently is some norming of the polls to the computers. Specifically I think we see it in the case of the MWC/WAC type teams. The genuine problem of any ranking scheme is the lack of games. So, any measure is the best you can do out of a bad lot.

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I'm getting to the point where I'll try to produce "my" rankings... out of some statistical methods but will never be able to be provided as a BCS ranking (Monte Carlo being what it is). I learned something recently (mathematically, statistically) that I wish I had known earlier so it should be interesting to see what I can produce.
 
Re: College Footbal 2009: Anybody want to be in the Top 5?

I think it says more about how awful Texas really is than about how good OK really is.
 
Re: College Footbal 2009: Anybody want to be in the Top 5?

Terrierbyassociation said:
I think it says more about how awful Texas really is than about how good OK really is.
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I'm speaking to the pollsters reasoning. I thought the best unit on the field in that game was OU's defense. Both offenses were pretty bad. After this weekend I can see Texas possibly losing @Oklahoma St. or @Texas A&M, but in all likelihood I think they're in the BCS title game against the winner of 'Bama/Florida.
 
Re: College Footbal 2009: Anybody want to be in the Top 5?

MinnesotaNorthStar said:
Only losing by 3 to Texas, and doing it without Bradford is probably how...
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Its more the fact they have three losses. I know they're all close but at some point you've got to get the job done. Add this to the fact they're wins came against cupcakes, and Oklahoma has no business in this poll.
 
Re: College Footbal 2009: Anybody want to be in the Top 5?

MinnesotaNorthStar said:
I'm speaking to the pollsters reasoning. I thought the best unit on the field in that game was OU's defense. Both offenses were pretty bad. After this weekend I can see Texas possibly losing @Oklahoma St. or @Texas A&M, but in all likelihood I think they're in the BCS title game against the winner of 'Bama/Florida.
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Well I agree Texas would be the likely opponent there would be no valid reason to place them in that game over a hypothetically undefeated Cinci or Iowa team.
 
Re: College Footbal 2009: Anybody want to be in the Top 5?

Alabama is incredible.

Julio Jones is the best WR in all of football.
 
Re: College Footbal 2009: Anybody want to be in the Top 5?

BoomGoestheDynamite said:
Well I agree Texas would be the likely opponent there would be no valid reason to place them in that game over a hypothetically undefeated Cinci or Iowa team.
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Texas is the likely opponent because they're likely to remain undefeated.

Iowa is already #3 in the computer rankings. A hypothetically undefeated Iowa is a team that hypothetically went to Columbus and handled OSU. That would give them a great opportunity to leapfrog Texas. Hypothetically.
 
Re: College Footbal 2009: Anybody want to be in the Top 5?

amherstblackbear said:
Texas is the likely opponent because they're likely to remain undefeated.

Iowa is already #3 in the computer rankings. A hypothetically undefeated Iowa is a team that hypothetically went to Columbus and handled OSU. That would give them a great opportunity to leapfrog Texas. Hypothetically.
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...and Iowa is a team that needed a fluky play to sneak past Northern Iowa...but it was a "w" so it still counts
 
Re: College Footbal 2009: Anybody want to be in the Top 5?

BoomGoestheDynamite said:
Its more the fact they have three losses. I know they're all close but at some point you've got to get the job done. Add this to the fact they're wins came against cupcakes, and Oklahoma has no business in this poll.
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I'm not saying they should be...just that the voters aren't going to drop someone from #20 to out of the polls because of a 3 point loss to the #3 team in the country...especially when their Heisman Trophy winning QB gets injured during the 2nd drive of the game.
 
Re: College Footbal 2009: Anybody want to be in the Top 5?

bigblue_dl said:
...and Iowa is a team that needed a fluky play to sneak past Northern Iowa...but it was a "w" so it still counts
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But Northern Iowa is a good D1-AA program in a good D1-AA league, with kids that for the most part probably grew up with hopes of playing for Iowa. Those kids were jacked up for that game, their Superbowl and their chance to show those coaches that they should have been offered a scholorship by the Hawkeyes. Iowa's kids saw that game as a cupcake game, and just barely got out of that trap game there by the skin of their teeth. They did get the Win, and thats all that matters. Its not like they were pushed to the end by a team like Delaware State.
 
Re: College Footbal 2009: Anybody want to be in the Top 5?

MinnesotaNorthStar said:
I'm not saying they should be...just that the voters aren't going to drop someone from #20 to out of the polls because of a 3 point loss to the #3 team in the country...especially when their Heisman Trophy winning QB gets injured during the 2nd drive of the game.
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I know your playing devils advocate, but something tells me if that #20 team was called Illinois, Oregon State, or North Carolina, they would have been promptly booted in the same situation.
 
Re: College Footbal 2009: Anybody want to be in the Top 5?

bigmrg74 said:
But Northern Iowa is a good D1-AA program in a good D1-AA league, with kids that for the most part probably grew up with hopes of playing for Iowa. Those kids were jacked up for that game, their Superbowl and their chance to show those coaches that they should have been offered a scholorship by the Hawkeyes. Iowa's kids saw that game as a cupcake game, and just barely got out of that trap game there by the skin of their teeth. They did get the Win, and thats all that matters. Its not like they were pushed to the end by a team like Delaware State.
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A team that is in the running for the BCS championship shouldn't have trouble playing any D1-AA no matter where they're from. But like you said, they won, and that is what matters, now they might have a chance to win it all, if everything plays out right.
 
Re: College Footbal 2009: Anybody want to be in the Top 5?

bigblue_dl said:
A team that is in the running for the BCS championship shouldn't have trouble playing any D1-AA no matter where they're from. But like you said, they won, and that is what matters, now they might have a chance to win it all, if everything plays out right.
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True, but just like losing, its not that important to the pollsters as long as you do it early in the season. ;)
 
Re: College Footbal 2009: Anybody want to be in the Top 5?

Guys- you are all missing the big news. We're #39/40!!! Wo, hooooo!!!

Go Vandals!

Making that match up against Bozo State a real headliner in a few weeks. :)

I can't belive they are actually getting votes! It's been 15 years since I think any voter considered them a top 25.

(again, while 5-1 looks good, the end of the game against Hawaii I saw... well, at least they are lower than 30. I really want them to do well, but I can't say that I'm all that impressed with the WAC- so for Bozo State and all)
 
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