Campaign 2016 - Snow White and the 7 dwarfs.

[busterman62]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Snow White and the 7 dwarfs.

In the minds of most on both sides of the aisle, it is better to go with the Devil Lite than the Devil.

I think it was Kepler who linked an article that really hit home on how I think partisans view this concept. To paraphrase (since I'm too lazy to look for the link) it was: "Yea, our guys aren't perfect and they make mistakes simply because they're human. Those other guys do it because they're evil incarnate."

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Snow White and the 7 dwarfs.

Is it purely coincidence that the date you cite (1994) is close to when the world wide web began to gain purchase?

I was dating the rise of the Proudly Dumb Right to the Class of '94. That was about the time the right began to reflexively boo anybody with any brains, even in their own party. It was when Newt Gingrich, "a dumb person's idea of a smart person," was at his cynical zenith.

It is possible that the web taught the booboisie that there were more of them than there are college graduates. 1994 coincided with when talk radio and righty politicians started to tell people they could vote on facts and if less than 50% of people liked evolution then, by definition, it wasn't true.

I think on the right the web is a trailing indicator, given the demographics, but it is fascinating that Eternal September began in 1993.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Snow White and the 7 dwarfs.

I think there are a LOT of GOP one-issue voters who will put up with a lot of doubt on the downside if the PAC marketing has successfully sold them on the idea that guns, or babies, or terrorists, or Mexicans, etc. is The One Thing that really matters for America. This was driven home to me the other day in a conversation with a fervent NRA donor. It's a million small frightened constituencies.

Well said, and this is part of Trump's appeal. Rural voters in West Virginia probably don't share Paul Ryan's lust for Ayn Rand. However, if Republicans promise to "protect our gunzzzz" whatever that means they're on board. Trump is hitting all the right positions (guns, anti-vaccinations, kick all immigrants out legal or illegal, ban Muslims, etc) but he's ALSO calling out hedge fund managers who pay no taxes, free trade agreements, grifter GOP consultants, sucking up to the Koch bros, etc etc. That helps set him apart from the other dozen midgets running for the nomination. Normally a nominee like this couldn't survive because their donations would dry up, and they wouldn't be able to advertise when they got pounded by their rivals. Trump needs no donations and he's universally known and gets free press. I've never seen anything like him and the situation the GOP is in dealing with him before.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Snow White and the 7 dwarfs.

I think there are a LOT of GOP one-issue voters who will put up with a lot of doubt on the downside if the PAC marketing has successfully sold them on the idea that guns, or babies, or terrorists, or Mexicans, etc. is The One Thing that really matters for America. This was driven home to me the other day in a conversation with a fervent NRA donor. It's a million small frightened constituencies.

Which is ironic, because that's exactly how the old Democratic coalition worked from FDR through LBJ. The bad (well, good) news is, when it broke, it didn't break in one or two places, it shattered.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Snow White and the 7 dwarfs.

Is it purely coincidence that the date you cite (1994) is close to when the world wide web began to gain purchase? I know the web has the potential to open up dialogue to include individuals and organizations with limited power and that it can or should serve as a leveler in that respect, but it also serves as an echo chamber, allowing people to limit their information input to sources they already agree with. Nothing new in that, but it has become magnified. Every time we open up a homepage we are fed articles (and advertisements) designed to cater to our opinions and preferences. This is a perfect environment for people already disposed to take a simplistic view of things to completely avoid the cognitive dissonance that comes with hearing objective truths that don't fit your world view. Mix in the emotions of fear and hate and you have in impenetrable wall. The roof can collapse and people will not see it.

I think its tied to political media addiction moving into mainstream.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Snow White and the 7 dwarfs.

Normally a nominee like this couldn't survive because their donations would dry up, and they wouldn't be able to advertise when they got pounded by their rivals. Trump needs no donations and he's universally known and gets free press. I've never seen anything like him and the situation the GOP is in dealing with him before.

Just so.

I think we have seen this many times before -- in governorships. There have been charismatic, wealthy men who were basically "installed" in the governorship based on their name and their personal assets. It's certainly happened in the Senate, too -- in the 19th century the joke was that was the SOP to become Senator.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Snow White and the 7 dwarfs.

"An orgy of recriminations..."

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Snow White and the 7 dwarfs.

If you feel the need to punish yourself become an Islanders fan. I'm not going to watch President Cruz get 3 SCOTUS nominations because you wanted to prove a point. On that I am 100% with Rover.

You think you can hold them off? LOL. No way. Time to rip the band-aid off so everyone can see.

 

[joecct]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Snow White and the 7 dwarfs.

Look how recent GOP SCOTUS nominations have turned out. You'll be fine. I will continue to pray for Justice Scalia's good health.

 

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Snow White and the 7 dwarfs.

You think you can hold them off? LOL. No way. Time to rip the band-aid off so everyone can see.

Why all the grim and perverse caviling? Dog get lost? Hemorrhoids? Minnesota citizenship?

 

[unofan]

Look how recent GOP SCOTUS nominations have turned out. You'll be fine. I will continue to pray for Justice Scalia's good health.

Alito is farther right than Scalia, and much, much farther right than O'Connor whom he replaced. Kennedy only became the swing vote when O'Connor retired.

Roberts is more moderate than Alito, but he's still farther right than Rehnquist ever was.

Sotomeyer is farther left than Souter was, but that's partially offset by Kagan being more moderate than Stevens.

The truth is there hasn't been a wild card since Souter. And the court today is farther right than it has been since before the Warren Court. So I really don't get your biatching.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Snow White and the 7 dwarfs.

Why all the grim and perverse caviling? Dog get lost? Hemorrhoids? Minnesota citizenship?

No, he's just Scooby. Dour is his play. My bet is that he must be Irish.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Snow White and the 7 dwarfs.

I have a bit of a different take. In my order of preferences, I'd like to hold:

1) The White House
2) The Senate
3 The Courts
4) The House
5) The States

So...looking at 2016, whoever wins the WH takes the Senate with them, which in turn controls the courts. Right now after holding the Presidency for what will be 16 out of 24 years, including 8 years of WH + Senate, the federal courts are controlled by the Dems with the notable exception of the SCOTUS where all cases hinge on how much sleep Anthony Kennedy got the night before a big decision gets handed down. Win the Presidency and there's a decent chance of replacing him or Scalia with a lib. Lose and its Ginsburg and Breyer who get replaced by a con. IIRC Scalia has been on the court the longest, and justices usually don't go much past 30 years. He's at 30 years now and is 80 years old. I can see him hanging on past the next election if a Dem wins. I can't see him staying on past that. That makes the election and re-election of the next Prez crucial.

Beyond that states go back and forth which pundidiots and nervous nellies never realize. Two terms of an idiot governor gives the opposition party a golden opportunity no matter what the state (MA, LA, etc). LePage, Christie, Scott, Snyder, Walker and Brownback are either disasters or mired in scandal. You can add Martinez to that too.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Snow White and the 7 dwarfs.

The truth is there hasn't been a wild card since Souter. And the court today is farther right than it has been since before the Warren Court. So I really don't get your biatching.

I think the perception on the right is that the Court is "liberal" because of social decisions, when that's just the Court reflecting the "leftward" (really just more tolerant) trend of American society over the last hundred years. If you are butt hurt over the erosion of the hierarchies you grew up with (male > female, white > black, straight > gay, Christian > non-Christian), and the Court not only doesn't reverse this but accedes to it with judicial language of "equal protection," you think the Court is liberal.

What the Court really is, most of the time, is a trailing indicator of widespread democratic values. Most of American society has decided discriminatory practices conflict with the American project of "all men are created equal." The Court is just catching up. But American society doesn't evolve as a monolith, and to plenty of people it's news you can no longer publicly mistreat women, blacks, gays and atheists as "haw haw, just good, clean fun."

Nothing says a society has to continue to get better. We may have some fundy wave that pushes America back to the good old days of homophobia and sexism. Heck, I hear slavery's making a comeback in the Middle East. So... don't be disheartened, social cons. A gal can dream.

(And meanwhile you've got a Court that's ripping the economic protections of the 20th century to shreds, so be happy about that.)

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Snow White and the 7 dwarfs.

I don't see Roberts as to the right of Rehnquist. I think he's less of a social conservative and more of a corporate conservative, but really I don't think Rehnquist was any less of a corporate stooge. Put it this way, I don't see Rehnquist upholding the ACA twice.

This court IMHO has been more liberal than expected. Yes the Citizens United decision was horrific, and I wish somebody would challenge it again to see if Kennedy wants a do over. But on other issues (ACA, Gay Marriage, Redistricting, Fair Housing) they'd tended to come down center-left. That's a lot more than I would have expected so I can see Joe's frustration from his perspective. Souter I agree is probably the last justice who completely screwed the people who appointed him. I don't think you'd be able to fly under the radar in your decisions again leading up to the nomination.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Snow White and the 7 dwarfs.

I have a bit of a different take. In my order of preferences, I'd like to hold:

1) The White House
2) The Senate
3 The Courts
4) The House
5) The States

So...looking at 2016, whoever wins the WH takes the Senate with them, which in turn controls the courts. Right now after holding the Presidency for what will be 16 out of 24 years, including 8 years of WH + Senate, the federal courts are controlled by the Dems with the notable exception of the SCOTUS where all cases hinge on how much sleep Anthony Kennedy got the night before a big decision gets handed down. Win the Presidency and there's a decent chance of replacing him or Scalia with a lib. Lose and its Ginsburg and Breyer who get replaced by a con. IIRC Scalia has been on the court the longest, and justices usually don't go much past 30 years. He's at 30 years now and is 80 years old. I can see him hanging on past the next election if a Dem wins. I can't see him staying on past that. That makes the election and re-election of the next Prez crucial.

Beyond that states go back and forth which pundidiots and nervous nellies never realize. Two terms of an idiot governor gives the opposition party a golden opportunity no matter what the state (MA, LA, etc). LePage, Christie, Scott, Snyder, Walker and Brownback are either disasters or mired in scandal. You can add Martinez to that too.

1. The Courts
2. The White House
3. The Senate
4. The House
5. The States

Until Donald Trump increases the number of justices to 49 and nominates his entire board of directors plus Ivanka as "super-duper chief justice," the Court has the greatest ability to stop bad things from happening.

The White House is next, since a terrible president is so crippling to the country (c.f., C+ Augustus).

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Snow White and the 7 dwarfs.

I chose WH over courts because the courts don't set the budget nor conduct foreign policy.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Snow White and the 7 dwarfs.

I chose WH over courts because the courts don't set the budget nor conduct foreign policy.

Fair enough, but I still want last licks.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Snow White and the 7 dwarfs.

No, he's just Scooby. Dour is his play. My bet is that he must be Irish.

No, I live in a country that needs to learn. There are millions of people chomping at the bit to vote for Trump. Those people may actually understand Sarah Palin when she speaks. Those are the people that need to learn. Or it's just never going to get any better around here.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Snow White and the 7 dwarfs.

No, I live in a country that needs to learn. There are millions of people chomping at the bit to vote for Trump. Those people may actually understand Sarah Palin when she speaks. Those are the people that need to learn. Or it's just never going to get any better around here.

A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it. The large majority of people who vote, for either side, vote for the wrong reasons, and no amount of empirical evidence is going to change that -- the next time they'll still vote for the person who is "strong," or "decisive," or who believes in the same invisible man in the sky as they do, and that will never, ever change.

So the most you can do is fight like hell for the better policies and hope your hood ornament is more superficially likable than the other guy's hood ornament, so the boobs will ooo and ahhh the right way this time.

It's still better than any other method yet devised.