The only hope, Obi Wan, is for a deadlocked convention and a compromise, centrist candidate is put forward.
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Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
- Thread starter joecct
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The only hope, Obi Wan, is for a deadlocked convention and a compromise, centrist candidate is put forward.
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
My daffy prediction is this. Trump and Cruz are fighting it out towards the convention with several big ego Establishment governors hanging on in the hopes that the last man standing gets the nod in a possible brokered convention, because what better way to have a claim than to still be in the race? Unfortunately as 2 of Christie/Kasich/Jebbers!/Rubio continue to stick around, they both fail to consolidate support as The Alternative. At this point you have to decide between Trump and Cruz. A total loose cannon vs a jerk but one who sticks close to right wing dogma. Cruz isn't going to raise taxes on hedge fund managers or rip up trade pacts. So, if a Corporate Oligarchy really does reign supreme, there's only once choice. Only one candidate didn't make the trip to the Koch brothers suck up fest, and that was Trump. Cruz went over on bended knee like the rest of them to pay homage. No it won't be pretty but I think eventually enough Goopers come around and put Cruz over the top.
My daffy prediction is this. Trump and Cruz are fighting it out towards the convention with several big ego Establishment governors hanging on in the hopes that the last man standing gets the nod in a possible brokered convention, because what better way to have a claim than to still be in the race? Unfortunately as 2 of Christie/Kasich/Jebbers!/Rubio continue to stick around, they both fail to consolidate support as The Alternative. At this point you have to decide between Trump and Cruz. A total loose cannon vs a jerk but one who sticks close to right wing dogma. Cruz isn't going to raise taxes on hedge fund managers or rip up trade pacts. So, if a Corporate Oligarchy really does reign supreme, there's only once choice. Only one candidate didn't make the trip to the Koch brothers suck up fest, and that was Trump. Cruz went over on bended knee like the rest of them to pay homage. No it won't be pretty but I think eventually enough Goopers come around and put Cruz over the top.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
I can't believe I've never heard either of those. They're perfect.
I can't believe I've never heard either of those. They're perfect.
dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
So I ran down the list of states, their primary rules, delegate count, and latest polling data from 2016. I left states with older data off. Right now, when it's all said and done, I don't see how they don't have a brokered convention. Neither candidate is close to the minimum required. Unless Cruz doesn't win California. Then it's trump.
Even with candidates dropping out, it really doesn't matter much. Most of the other candidates aren't polling high enough to even get a single delegate due to minimum percentage required. The winner take all states get interesting and are the only things that matter anymore.
So I ran down the list of states, their primary rules, delegate count, and latest polling data from 2016. I left states with older data off. Right now, when it's all said and done, I don't see how they don't have a brokered convention. Neither candidate is close to the minimum required. Unless Cruz doesn't win California. Then it's trump.
Even with candidates dropping out, it really doesn't matter much. Most of the other candidates aren't polling high enough to even get a single delegate due to minimum percentage required. The winner take all states get interesting and are the only things that matter anymore.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
Though if what I've read about RNC rules is true, choices at the convention are limited to candidates who ran in and got at least one delegate from the primaries and caucuses. So a parachutist is out. Given that restriction, I know why Kasich is sticking around.
Though if what I've read about RNC rules is true, choices at the convention are limited to candidates who ran in and got at least one delegate from the primaries and caucuses. So a parachutist is out. Given that restriction, I know why Kasich is sticking around.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
I see the logic, but I am simply too old and tired to wrap my mind around a Trump or a Cruz winning a major party nomination. If it's Cruz his own Veep may wind up voting against him -- can you imagine having to be close to that guy day after day?
I see the logic, but I am simply too old and tired to wrap my mind around a Trump or a Cruz winning a major party nomination. If it's Cruz his own Veep may wind up voting against him -- can you imagine having to be close to that guy day after day?
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
I'm surprised to hear this because my impression was after the SEC primary the GOP's primaries are all winner take all. Get a little bit of momentum coming out of the SEC and you can build an overwhelming delegate lead in a hurray.
Also bear in mind there are uncommitted super-delegates who are party officials and office holders. Those are the guys the RNC can button hole at the retreat the weekend before the convention and explain, patiently and quietly, exactly how they are going to vote to avoid a brokered convention.
Though I understand they are less of a percentage of the total delegates than the Dems' have. The Dem superdelegate count (3500) is crazypants. They must hand them out to everybody above the office of dog catcher.
I'm surprised to hear this because my impression was after the SEC primary the GOP's primaries are all winner take all. Get a little bit of momentum coming out of the SEC and you can build an overwhelming delegate lead in a hurray.
Also bear in mind there are uncommitted super-delegates who are party officials and office holders. Those are the guys the RNC can button hole at the retreat the weekend before the convention and explain, patiently and quietly, exactly how they are going to vote to avoid a brokered convention.
Though I understand they are less of a percentage of the total delegates than the Dems' have. The Dem superdelegate count (3500) is crazypants. They must hand them out to everybody above the office of dog catcher.
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Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
Think about a brokered convention though. If Trump and Cruz each control 1/3rd of the delegates, why not just make a deal with each other? They both have no morals and are closest to each other ideologically and as "outsiders". Fact is a combo of their delegates most likely is enough to put one or the other over the top. I don't see Trump playing nice with Rubio, Christie or hilariously Jebbers! freakin Bush.
Not sure about him and Kasich. Likewise, nobody can stand Cruz.
A brokered convention IMHO still has one of those two guys as the nominee because they control the most delegates. Could we be seeing a Trump-Cruz ticket?!? God help us all!
Think about a brokered convention though. If Trump and Cruz each control 1/3rd of the delegates, why not just make a deal with each other? They both have no morals and are closest to each other ideologically and as "outsiders". Fact is a combo of their delegates most likely is enough to put one or the other over the top. I don't see Trump playing nice with Rubio, Christie or hilariously Jebbers! freakin Bush.
Not sure about him and Kasich. Likewise, nobody can stand Cruz. A brokered convention IMHO still has one of those two guys as the nominee because they control the most delegates. Could we be seeing a Trump-Cruz ticket?!? God help us all!
Think about a brokered convention though. If Trump and Cruz each control 1/3rd of the delegates, why not just make a deal with each other? They both have no morals and are closest to each other ideologically and as "outsiders". Fact is a combo of their delegates most likely is enough to put one or the other over the top. I don't see Trump playing nice with Rubio, Christie or hilariously Jebbers! freakin Bush.
A brokered convention IMHO still has one of those two guys as the nominee because they control the most delegates. Could we be seeing a Trump-Cruz ticket?!? God help us all!
Because if that happens I can see every TV show trotting out "The Imperial March" every time those two are together.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
It does sound implausible but hey, who thought we'd be where we are now? I find the notion that if Trump and Cruz are battling it out for the nomination, a White Knight is going to emerge and be given the nomination at the convention. Not if Trump and Cruz combined have over 50% of the delegates. There's no need for those guys to make a deal with anybody except each other.
It does sound implausible but hey, who thought we'd be where we are now? I find the notion that if Trump and Cruz are battling it out for the nomination, a White Knight is going to emerge and be given the nomination at the convention. Not if Trump and Cruz combined have over 50% of the delegates. There's no need for those guys to make a deal with anybody except each other.
FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
Trump and Cruz on the same ticket won't happen. Little Donnie won't settle for being anyone's running mate, and after playing the Cruz birther card, there's no way he could suddenly justify tabbing Cruz as his VP without it looking very awkward to a majority of voters.
Trump and Cruz on the same ticket won't happen. Little Donnie won't settle for being anyone's running mate, and after playing the Cruz birther card, there's no way he could suddenly justify tabbing Cruz as his VP without it looking very awkward to a majority of voters.
walrus
Wind up workin' in a gas station
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
Isn't Kerry known as Lurch?
Isn't Kerry known as Lurch?
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
Delegates are only bound on the first ballot. Neither Trump nor Cruz has power within the party. So they will probably not be able to dependably hand off their delegates, who after the first ballot will immediately start cutting their own deals (likely at the state slate level, but perhaps even literally individually depending on how organized T & C were with their state organizations).
It could really be a free for all.
Delegates are only bound on the first ballot. Neither Trump nor Cruz has power within the party. So they will probably not be able to dependably hand off their delegates, who after the first ballot will immediately start cutting their own deals (likely at the state slate level, but perhaps even literally individually depending on how organized T & C were with their state organizations).
It could really be a free for all.
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Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
More so for Trump than Cruz. Cruz' people are most likely true believers especially given the states that he's going to amass his delegates in. Trump is more of a wild card.
More so for Trump than Cruz. Cruz' people are most likely true believers especially given the states that he's going to amass his delegates in. Trump is more of a wild card.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
Agreed. God only knows where Trump is getting his slates from. Maybe they're his employees (in which case, yeah, I guess they'll stay loyal then).
Cruz gives me the sense that he's likely to attract scads of Cruz-like youngins with equally punchable faces. The kind of jackwagons who join the Objectivist Club and run the school's conservative newspaper in between Wall Street internships and frat date rapes.
Agreed. God only knows where Trump is getting his slates from. Maybe they're his employees (in which case, yeah, I guess they'll stay loyal then).
Cruz gives me the sense that he's likely to attract scads of Cruz-like youngins with equally punchable faces. The kind of jackwagons who join the Objectivist Club and run the school's conservative newspaper in between Wall Street internships and frat date rapes.
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