Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an election

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an elect

I'd put today's 5mn odds of a final presidency of:

Clinton 2:1
Biden 3:1 (because he might not run)
Bush 3:1 (because he might not get nominated)
Trump 5:1 (because of minorities and women)
Sanders/Carson 10:1
Any other candidate 20:1 or greater (largely unelectable with any of the above involved - except Trump)

If Biden runs, he jumps to better than 2:1 and Clinton drops to 4:1.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an elect

I'd put today's 5mn odds of a final presidency of:

Clinton 2:1
Biden 3:1 (because he might not run)
Bush 3:1 (because he might not get nominated)
Trump 5:1 (because of minorities and women)
Sanders/Carson 10:1
Any other candidate 20:1 or greater (largely unelectable with any of the above involved - except Trump)

If Biden runs, he jumps to better than 2:1 and Clinton drops to 4:1.

A reasonable analysis except for Bush. He's being way overrated by people, especially Beltway pundits. The problem is there's 4 other people in the race just like him (Walker, Rubio, Kasich, Christie) without any of the baggage of his last name.

I like Biden a lot and wish the dude got a fairer shake out of the lamestream media. Problem for him and Sanders is that they'd be like 73 or 74 by election day IIRC, by far the oldest Presidents ever elected. The track record for people that age running (Dole, McCain) or even winning (Reagan's re-election) isn't good. As we now know Reagan went senile in office during that second term. While Hillary, Jebbers and Trump aren't spring chickens, I don't believe they're older than Reagan when he won the first time. I'm not entirely convinced the voters will elect someone past the 70 year old mark again.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an elect

By whom? Any Democratic nominee is going to face the Echo Chamber's 24/7 pounding assault as a communist / Muslim-loving / Christian-hating / "dangerous" / anti-American / elitist / naive / "troubling" / intellectual / Black Militant / tyrannical traitor. That's what they're paid to do.

The great irony of the boy who cried wolf GOP is that because they squeal all those things regardless of the nominee we can actually run anybody we want. The wahmbulance will wail its siren anyway.

By independents and the Right. I know in your infinite wisdom the middle doesnt exist but if you think the undecideds are going to flock to a candidate that only got the position because the entire party turned on the Cyborg then you need to get out of your Ivory Tower and actually pay attention to what is going on. The reason these compromise candidates arent running now (in opposition to a faltering Hillary) is because they dont want to. Their heart isnt in it and everyone knows it. Even Uncle Joe wont make a decision because to run is just insane now. You think some lesser candidate is going to destroy their future chances by going for it now? These people arent idiots like Scott Walker or Paul Ryan, they know they have one shot and arent going to turn on The Machine to try for it.

Who exactly do you think the Superdelegates are going to backdoor in Elizabeth Warren? There is no Great White Hope. You are already sold your soul to Hillary dont hope that the elitists are going to help you not have to deal with the fallout of her getting the nomination.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an elect

A reasonable analysis except for Bush. He's being way overrated by people, especially Beltway pundits. The problem is there's 4 other people in the race just like him (Walker, Rubio, Kasich, Christie) without any of the baggage of his last name.

I like Biden a lot and wish the dude got a fairer shake out of the lamestream media. Problem for him and Sanders is that they'd be like 73 or 74 by election day IIRC, by far the oldest Presidents ever elected. The track record for people that age running (Dole, McCain) or even winning (Reagan's re-election) isn't good. As we now know Reagan went senile in office during that second term. While Hillary, Jebbers and Trump aren't spring chickens, I don't believe they're older than Reagan when he won the first time. I'm not entirely convinced the voters will elect someone past the 70 year old mark again.

Reagan, by far the oldest (unless you go back to the middle of the 19th century), was 69 years and 349 days old on inauguration day. Clinton would be 69 years and 86 days old.

Trump is even older. He would be 70 years and 220 days old on inauguration day. Jeb would be just 22 days shy of 64.

Edit:

No question the electorate has favored considerably younger candidates over the years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States_by_age

Probably the single greatest obstacle facing the nursing home crew the Democrats are putting forth this year.

 

[MaizeRage]

Re: Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an elect

As we now know Reagan went senile in office during that second term. While Hillary, Jebbers and Trump aren't spring chickens, I don't believe they're older than Reagan when he won the first time. I'm not entirely convinced the voters will elect someone past the 70 year old mark again.

That's a huge advantage for Trump, seeing as he's already embraced senility.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an elect

You think some lesser candidate is going to destroy their future chances by going for it now?

I think there are reasonable candidates who didn't enter earlier because they assumed Hillary had it locked up and who have to go now or never (Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, Elizabeth Warren, Tom Udall).

Let's say the announced field stays as it is and Hillary continues to fade until her favorables are a net -30, but it is such a long and drawn out process that she still has the plurality of delegates at the convention. The Clintons might still be able via carrots and sticks to coerce a first ballot nomination, but if not then what do the Democrats do? O'Malley will have proven to be a zero via his campaign. That leaves the Democrats the choice of a guaranteed loser in Hillary, or Bernie, or a white knight. In that scenario, all my money's on the latter (though obviously I would personally back Bernie).

Also remember that turning on Hillary and the Clintonistas is not turning on the party. The Clinton Machine did not do a good job of helping other Democrats when Bill was in office, and the Clintonistas are legendarily arrogant around Washington even by this town's extraordinary standards. The sitting administration was a direct challenge and rebuke to the Clintons and all those people still want jobs. And the liberal wing of the party loathes Hillary as a centrist on economics and a hawk on foreign policy. The Clintons have been out of power for 16 years and all their best strategists, whips, and bag men are either retired or ancient. The bigger in-party risk might actually become staying with her if her numbers keep dropping.

 

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an elect

I think there are reasonable candidates who didn't enter earlier because they assumed Hillary(/Jeb) had it locked up and who have to go now or never

Mitt Romney?
Although, after I recently read Under the Banner of Heaven it totally freaked me out about Mormons. The modern ones in the book storyline are FLDS (Warren Jeffs et al) but the history of the whole religion right back to previously convicted con man Joe Smith is just crazy. And fascinating. I want to read this next.
But anyway, you think Mitt regrets not jumping in, yet?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an elect

After spending 8 years running for president I don't think Mitt regrets not spending another 4. The guy is healthy, rich, and immensely self-satisfied. Why spend years grubbing about with the peasants when you can spend the rest of your life with feet up and mind in neutral? Dubya looks really relaxed.

 

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an elect

A reasonable analysis except for Bush. He's being way overrated by people, especially Beltway pundits. The problem is there's 4 other people in the race just like him (Walker, Rubio, Kasich, Christie) without any of the baggage of his last name.

Just follow the money. Bush may have the personality of a head of wilted iceberg lettuce, but he locked up so many big donors early that he's still got a better chance than the other 4 put together. The money trail hasn't failed the final nominee yet, although this might be its biggest test.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an elect

Mitt Romney?
Although, after I recently read Under the Banner of Heaven it totally freaked me out about Mormons. The modern ones in the book storyline are FLDS (Warren Jeffs et al) but the history of the whole religion right back to previously convicted con man Joe Smith is just crazy. And fascinating. I want to read this next.
But anyway, you think Mitt regrets not jumping in, yet?

Not sure, but I think he regrets it less than do some of the potential Dem candidates. Romney is a relatively well known candidate, so he's not going wildly beyond or coming up short of a pretty decent showing. Somewhat presidential, moderate, 'respectable' and somewhat well known. Very much like Jeb. But as such, I think there's a great chance that he would have been victim to the same plight as Jeb. And been blindsided by a blazing Trump.

The Dem situation is different. Although Hillary looked pretty dominant, she's faded. And unlike the GOP, the Dems really just have a single alternative from Vermont. The backdoor may not be wide open...but its open.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an elect

When he's leading in a national poll.

Getting there.

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an elect

Not sure, but I think he regrets it less than do some of the potential Dem candidates. Romney is a relatively well known candidate, so he's not going wildly beyond or coming up short of a pretty decent showing. Somewhat presidential, moderate, 'respectable' and somewhat well known. Very much like Jeb. But as such, I think there's a great chance that he would have been victim to the same plight as Jeb. And been blindsided by a blazing Trump.

The Dem situation is different. Although Hillary looked pretty dominant, she's faded. And unlike the GOP, the Dems really just have a single alternative from Vermont. The backdoor may not be wide open...but its open.

The Dems have a one current declared alternative. But they do have a number of other possibilities who could jump in if Hillary's slow motion implosion reaches a critical point. And one of those folks, even jumping in relatively late, might end up being a better alternative than Hillary, with all her baggage and inability to connect with the electorate. If I was a Dem, I'd have mixed feelings about the whole thing, seeing risks and opportunities if Hillary is gone from the picture.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an elect

When he's leading in a national poll. If I go to a caucus, I'd probably vote for him. But Nate Silver had a pretty good article a few weeks back about how Bernie could win Iowa and N.H. and then get demolished in South Carolina and the SEC primary and pretty much everywhere else besides Portlandia because he's made very little in roads among minorities and the non liberal wing.

I remember running the numbers myself a number of years ago and IIRC, Iowa was actually below 50% at matching the final candidate among non-incumbents and even worse at picking the eventual president.

Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses

Must have been quite a while ago and probably included results going back before the 1970s. *shrug*

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an elect

The Dems have a one current declared alternative. But they do have a number of other possibilities who could jump in if Hillary's slow motion implosion reaches a critical point. And one of those folks, even jumping in relatively late, might end up being a better alternative than Hillary, with all her baggage and inability to connect with the electorate. If I was a Dem, I'd have mixed feelings about the whole thing, seeing risks and opportunities if Hillary is gone from the picture.

True that. Beyond Biden, nobody else has shown any interest in joining on the Dem side. The other big question is whether Hillary can pull out of her swan dive soon enough. She does have some time on her side.

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an elect

True that. Beyond Biden, nobody else has shown any interest in joining on the Dem side. The other big question is whether Hillary can pull out of her swan dive soon enough. She does have some time on her side.

So far time hasn't been her friend. She probably wishes elections now were like they were awhile back when the whole cycle was much shorter, as the longer this runs, the more she lags, shades of 2008. It's an open question who might become interested if Hillary's presumptive candidacy is no longer an obstacle.

 

[joecct]

Re: Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an elect

True that. Beyond Biden, nobody else has shown any interest in joining on the Dem side. The other big question is whether Hillary can pull out of her swan dive soon enough. She does have some time on her side.

I thought the game plan was to discourage participation to clear the way for HRC's coronation. If the queen abdicates before the coronation, there is a vacuum that may or may not be easily filled.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an elect

I think there are reasonable candidates who didn't enter earlier because they assumed Hillary had it locked up and who have to go now or never (Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, Elizabeth Warren, Tom Udall).

Let's say the announced field stays as it is and Hillary continues to fade until her favorables are a net -30, but it is such a long and drawn out process that she still has the plurality of delegates at the convention. The Clintons might still be able via carrots and sticks to coerce a first ballot nomination, but if not then what do the Democrats do? O'Malley will have proven to be a zero via his campaign. That leaves the Democrats the choice of a guaranteed loser in Hillary, or Bernie, or a white knight. In that scenario, all my money's on the latter (though obviously I would personally back Bernie).

Also remember that turning on Hillary and the Clintonistas is not turning on the party. The Clinton Machine did not do a good job of helping other Democrats when Bill was in office, and the Clintonistas are legendarily arrogant around Washington even by this town's extraordinary standards. The sitting administration was a direct challenge and rebuke to the Clintons and all those people still want jobs. And the liberal wing of the party loathes Hillary as a centrist on economics and a hawk on foreign policy. The Clintons have been out of power for 16 years and all their best strategists, whips, and bag men are either retired or ancient. The bigger in-party risk might actually become staying with her if her numbers keep dropping.

Sorry but that isnt going to happen. Unless an Obama comes out of nowhere the Superdelegates arent going against The Machine. Warren isnt coming around so just stop hoping. The other 3 arent going to blow any skirts up either. You better pray for Bernie or Uncle Joe because they are your only chance of the Pantsuit not winning.

This is about winning the General not about who is the best candidate for the Liberal Wing and as much as it sucks Hillary can beat the Clown Shown as is. Everyone else needs help from the middle and none of he people you name inspire voters outside of Warren.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an elect

I thought the game plan was to discourage participation to clear the way for HRC's coronation. If the queen abdicates before the coronation, there is a vacuum that may or may not be easily filled.

It will be a scramble. The worst case for us is Hillary dies by a thousand cuts and nobody ever gets off their duff. If Hillary truly starts to flame out spectacularly and high profile Dems begin to publicly call for her to suspend her campaign, then there will be a stampede that will make the 17 dwarves look orderly.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an elect

If I was a Dem, I'd have mixed feelings about the whole thing, seeing risks and opportunities if Hillary is gone from the picture.

That's exactly how it is. Hillary is like an ace pitcher with an injury history who can either throw a shutout or implode in the second inning. Her risk/opportunity mix is better suited to facing a strong GOP contender, but the GOP field is so weak you'd rather have a back of the rotation grinder who will give up 3 or 4 runs every start but always finish.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - People lie the most after a hunt, during a war or before an elect

One down, 16 to go.

Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry dropped out of the GOP presidential nominiation race Friday, AP reported.