Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is awful

[mookie1995]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

So, early results and calls will be coming in on the east coast as soon as polls close. So what should we look for? If Hillary takes Fl and PA, is it pretty much impossible for Drumpf? Add in SC and it's over?

"it" is over now. done

 

[SJHovey]

Yeah, all I got out this was..........

Yep, I know you did. That's why we have two large segments of the population that just appear to be speaking at each other, not to each other.

 

[French Rage]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

So, early results and calls will be coming in on the east coast as soon as polls close. So what should we look for? If Hillary takes Fl and PA, is it pretty much impossible for Drumpf? Add in SC and it's over?

FL moreso. She needs PA as part of her firewall, so if she's winning there it's good and shows she hasn't lost any of her states, but Trump could still eek it out if he wins all of the other swing states. If he loses FL, though, he would need some real crazy stuff to happen farther west, and if he loses FL that is very unlikely to happen out there.

 

[Drew S.]

I understand just fine. There are three main reasons people are voting for the Butternut Turd:

1. They hate Hillary & Obama (these are your garden variety rednecks / sexists / racists)

2. They think educated people, especially Washington pols, aren't listening to them (this is the average voter - and they're correct)

3. They're out of work or marginally employed, and screwed because they don't have the education and skills to be relevant to the modern service economy (these people I do genuinely feel bad for, and I think our trade agreements have likely contributed to giving them a raw deal)

I think the media would like this to be the case but for most people it has more to do with an issue like taxes, gun control, abortion or something else.

 

[rufus]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Yeah, all I got out this was "black people got helped out when I didn't so * that" (racism) and "I hate people who do slightly better than me so I most destroy them instead of going after the actual people who *ed me." (Unions and "gubmint")

So basically ignorant, racist rednecks.

Yep, lotta whining about "They got there's so where's mine?" It's like the Craig T. Nelson rant from a few years ago: “I’ve been on food stamps and welfare. Anybody help me out? No. No.”

Yeah, there's a lot to the number of people who have been left behind by these trade agreements and the increasing automation and technology of our economy. But we're not going back to the days of textile mills in every city, and those jobs ain't coming back. They might, if you can rid our culture of corporate greed and the continuing chase for the biggest return on the dollar, and the consumer desire for cheap $hit. Good luck with that.

Without that, Donald Trump can't get them back, and no one else can either. It's either adapt and learn the skills required for the new economy, or perish.

That's like expecting the buggy-whip industry to come back. Ain't gonna happen.

 

[burd]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Yep, I know you did. That's why we have two large segments of the population that just appear to be speaking at each other, not to each other.

Doesn't that also describe the GOP itself, Hovey? To a lesser extent, the dems, with Clinton and Sanders, but not to where the party establishment is abandoning its candidate.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

So, early results and calls will be coming in on the east coast as soon as polls close. So what should we look for? If Hillary takes Fl and PA, is it pretty much impossible for Drumpf? Add in SC and it's over?

Here is the schedule.

My flowchart below. The time is the poll closure but the data will then roll in throughout the night. If a solid red or blue goes the other way that signals a landslide and a +2 for whoever won.

"0700 GA: H +2" means "GA closes at 0700 ET. If it is called for Hillary, she gets 2 points."

First candidate to 2 wins. At that point exit the procedure.

I did not proof this to ensure it is entirely logically consistent against the expected results and EV.

0700 GA: H +2
0700 VA: T +2
0730 NC: H +1
0730 OH: H +2
0800 FL: H +1
0800 NH: H +1
0800 PA: T +2
1000 NV: Winner +2

 

[Jimjamesak]

Yep, I know you did. That's why we have two large segments of the population that just appear to be speaking at each other, not to each other.

Ignorance is ignorance. I can't speak for everyone but I know myself and plenty on the left are just tired of the bs from the right. There's certain conditions that you guys are going to have to accept before we can have real, meaningful conversations. Until then, they're just a bunch of ignorant, racist *heads who don't deserve my attention.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Also, it appears our assumptions about Trump's support being blue collar left-behinds might be unfounded. Nate took a look at exit polling back during primary season. The average Trump primary voter, nationwide, reported an annual income of $72k. Unless these folks lied about their income...

 

[Craig P.]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Heck, Pence ... left IN ... better than [he] found [it].

Really? I left IN in 2010, and had a very good impression of Mitch Daniels as governor of the state. From afar, Pence is not at all impressive (particularly unimpressed with his backtrack on one of the reactionary social bills that was passed there), but I'm also not seeing how the state is running on a day-to-day basis.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

"Politician Rick Nolan.." The ad drags out the word politician in a sneering way. Are they asking for people to vote "None of the Above?"

 

[MaizeRage]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

"Politician Rick Nolan.." The ad drags out the word politician in a sneering way. Are they asking for people to vote "None of the Above?"

It's almost, but not quite as sneering as the way the Nolan ads say 'Stewart Mills, the third".

 

[French Rage]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

New batch of Ipsos surveys pushes Hillary back over 70% on 538.

 

[joecct]

Talking about going to vote tomorrow morning with my co-workers. One of them is originally from St. Louis, then moved to FL, now she lives here. She's registered to vote here, and her brother let her know she is still on the voter registration rolls in St. Louis. How does that happen?

They did a video tonight here on the local ABC station. A reporter is registered to vote in PA, MD and VA (due to moves) and could conceivably vote in all 3 jurisdictions.

FYI, I was counted in both VA and MD in the 1980 census. I moved after filling out the VA form and then a census counter in MD was rather insistent that I be interviewed and enumerated. I should tell my kids that so when they open up the 1980 records, they can see me counted 2x.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

It's almost, but not quite as sneering as the way the Nolan ads say 'Stewart Mills, the third".

The DNCC released a radio attack ad against Nolan a few weeks ago talking about his "fancy hair." I laughed and laughed and laughed at that one!

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

That hair and his "personally offensive" comment lost him the election. First time I've ever seen great hair lose an election.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

FL moreso. She needs PA as part of her firewall, so if she's winning there it's good and shows she hasn't lost any of her states, but Trump could still eek it out if he wins all of the other swing states. If he loses FL, though, he would need some real crazy stuff to happen farther west, and if he loses FL that is very unlikely to happen out there.

If he doesnt flip Pennsylvania the chances for him are slim. If NC goes Blue the west coast might not matter at all. If Florida goes Blue he might as well concede right then and there.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Here is the schedule.

My flowchart below. The time is the poll closure but the data will then roll in throughout the night. If a solid red or blue goes the other way that signals a landslide and a +2 for whoever won.

"0700 GA: H +2" means "GA closes at 0700 ET. If it is called for Hillary, she gets 2 points."

First candidate to 2 wins. At that point exit the procedure.

I did not proof this to ensure it is entirely logically consistent against the expected results and EV.

0700 GA: H +2
0700 VA: T +2
0730 NC: H +1
0730 OH: H +2
0800 FL: H +1
0800 NH: H +1
0800 PA: T +2
1000 NV: Winner +2

I'd add in MN and WI +2 for Trump. Those would be earth-shattering results that probably aren't as remote as people think. I'd classify them in the same category as GA going Hillary.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

I'd add in MN and WI +2 for Trump. Those would be earth-shattering results that probably aren't as remote as people think. I'd classify them in the same category as GA going Hillary.

Agreed, although I think they fall under the automatic win rule of a solid favorite flipping (e.g.: NY T +2, SC H +2)

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Are you suggesting that MN might flip...cause if so dont even seriously consider it. WI is remote MN would be the pipe dream of all pipe dreams.