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Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is awful

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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Ohio Democratic Party Suing To Prevent Voter Intimidation

Great now both sides are doing it...

the only part that gave me any pause (cause I dont honestly think it is happening)

If they can prove the underlined portion...then all bets are off. I dont buy it at all though.

After all we've seen so far is it really doubtful and not probable?
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

After reading a sampling of posts, it appears there's pretty considerable optimism here for Hillary. Is that based primarily on 538's 'casts? Silver himself is saying her lead is pretty tenuous. Maybe he's hedging a bit against his own numbers.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

This election cycle has been more than a little frightening in what it says about us as voters and what sways us. But I can certainly say I have gained from what I have read on this thread from all sides and am grateful for it.
 
After reading a sampling of posts, it appears there's pretty considerable optimism here for Hillary. Is that based primarily on 538's 'casts? Silver himself is saying her lead is pretty tenuous. Maybe he's hedging a bit against his own numbers.

538 is the least bullish on Clinton by a mile. The other major forecast models give Trump about a 15% chance or less.

So the question is whether Silver sees something other don't, or if he's the outlier this time around.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

You folks do understand the difference between what a person wants and what a person observes, right? I might want a warm sunny day, but if the weather forecast says cold and rainy, I'm not going to pretend otherwise....



Some of us were discussing why the Democrats even nominated Clinton in the first place, given that she was still under investigation at the time (Comey's "extremely careless" comments came after the convention). Why didn't they just pick another candidate who would be just as attractive to the electorate without all the baggage?? It was daft on their part to nominate her in the first place, given how much risk was attached.


Anybody remember the Herschel Walker trade? often seen as one of the most lopsided trades in sports history, the Dallas Cowboys traded Herschel Walker and four draft picks to the Minnesota Vikings for five players as well as what turned out to be eight draft choices as a result of conditional picks. Walker then had at best a mediocre few seasons with Minnesota before being traded again.


The Democrats made an even worse deal than that: to continue the analogy, it would be as if the Vikings traded every one of their draft picks for the next six years only for Walker, who then blew out a knee in his fifth game and never played again.


I am referring to the manner in which PPACA was passed through Congress in 2010 (not about whether it was a good law or not or whether they meant well or not, merely the process they went through to get it passed). Most of the promising Democrats' futures were wiped out in the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections, about the only Democrats who retained office were those in extremely safe districts / states anyway.

As a result of the process by which PPACA was passed, there were no decent young candidates for the Democrats to pick from, no Marco Rubios nor Scott Walkers even available as alternatives. If the Trump surge continues and he surprises us all next Wednesday morning, and if the Republicans hang onto a 51-49 Senate advantage as a result of last-minute revulsion at Clinton (the last Wikileaks dump hasn't happened yet....), you can chalk it up 100% to Pelosi and Reid in 2010. They were the ones who authored this mess today.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

After reading a sampling of posts, it appears there's pretty considerable optimism here for Hillary. Is that based primarily on 538's 'casts?

or confirmation bias: the prospect of a Trump win is so unsettling, it cannot even be contemplated.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

You folks do understand the difference between what a person wants and what a person observes, right? I might want a warm sunny day, but if the weather forecast says cold and rainy, I'm not going to pretend otherwise....



Some of us were discussing why the Democrats even nominated Clinton in the first place, given that she was still under investigation at the time (Comey's "extremely careless" comments came after the convention). Why didn't they just pick another candidate who would be just as attractive to the electorate without all the baggage?? It was daft on their part to nominate her in the first place, given how much risk was attached.


Anybody remember the Herschel Walker trade? often seen as one of the most lopsided trades in sports history, the Dallas Cowboys traded Herschel Walker and four draft picks to the Minnesota Vikings for five players as well as what turned out to be eight draft choices as a result of conditional picks. Walker then had at best a mediocre few seasons with Minnesota before being traded again.


The Democrats made an even worse deal than that: to continue the analogy, it would be as if the Vikings traded every one of their draft picks for the next six years only for Walker, who then blew out a knee in his fifth game and never played again.


I am referring to the manner in which PPACA was passed through Congress in 2010 (not about whether it was a good law or not or whether they meant well or not, merely the process they went through to get it passed). Most of the promising Democrats' futures were wiped out in the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections, about the only Democrats who retained office were those in extremely safe districts / states anyway.

As a result of the process by which PPACA was passed, there were no decent young candidates for the Democrats to pick from, no Marco Rubios nor Scott Walkers even available as alternatives. If the Trump surge continues and he surprises us all next Wednesday morning, and if the Republicans hang onto a 51-49 Senate advantage as a result of last-minute revulsion at Clinton (the last Wikileaks dump hasn't happened yet....), you can chalk it up 100% to Pelosi and Reid in 2010. They were the ones who authored this mess today.

My lord if Drumpf wins it isnt because of Pelosi and Reid, it is because the Republican party sold out to a clown and he baboolzed them into voting for him. Funny you talk about how the Democrats made a bad deal picking her (even though she earned it by having the most votes...you know like she was supposed to) but you ignore that Donald destroyed the competition for your party. You have no one to blame but yourself.

And the best part of your little BS diatribe is the "No Scott Walkers or Rubios" as alternatives...you know, guys that got completely reamed by Drumpf. Yeah I wish the Dems had more guys like that...

Let me guess...someone on talk radio said the same thing and you stole it? It isnt Hannity cause he wants Trump...so who was it? If you are going to plagarize at east pretend to give them credit.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

After all we've seen so far is it really doubtful and not probable?

It isnt that I doubt it...it is that unless you ****ing proof it just looks like whining. Going to court is bad enough but if all you have is "Someone said they had plans in place" it isnt enough. You gotta be able to prove someone is actively trying to suppress the vote. (like in NC)
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

538 is the least bullish on Clinton by a mile. The other major forecast models give Trump about a 15% chance or less.

So the question is whether Silver sees something other don't, or if he's the outlier this time around.

And while Silver said her lead is "tenuous" he also acknowledges the flaws in his numbers and still says that in most models she still wins. In all 3 right now she is over 65% to win and that is with polls that include the "Post Comey Letter" sampling. 6 of the posts on the top of his list right now are from that time period and they all have Hillary up except the LA Times. Even the IBD has her up 1 and that is one of the ones Drumpf likes! (and that polled til yesterday) ABC, which has been super volatile, has her up as well.

The other thing is that he has almost no path without Pennsylvania unless he flips a bunch of other states. Right now Pennsylvania is just not happening for him. Even Florida and NC which Nate has red right now...they are each uber close. (they are roughly within a 1% point of each other making them tossups)

And the final reason I am not worried really...high overall early voter turnout. We already are ahead of last years totals (even with down Black Voting in Florida and NC) and most pundits and pollsters agree that is what the Dems needed to see to feel confident going into Tuesday. It means they are engaged and this stupid FBI revolt isnt having the effect the GOP hoped for. the Dems needed people to get out and vote and they are.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Please to not hold Scott Walker out as an example of a "decent young candidate." For those who care about education, the environment, and even job growth, he's been a disaster.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

You folks do understand the difference between what a person wants and what a person observes, right? I might want a warm sunny day, but if the weather forecast says cold and rainy, I'm not going to pretend otherwise....



Some of us were discussing why the Democrats even nominated Clinton in the first place, given that she was still under investigation at the time (Comey's "extremely careless" comments came after the convention). Why didn't they just pick another candidate who would be just as attractive to the electorate without all the baggage?? It was daft on their part to nominate her in the first place, given how much risk was attached.


Anybody remember the Herschel Walker trade? often seen as one of the most lopsided trades in sports history, the Dallas Cowboys traded Herschel Walker and four draft picks to the Minnesota Vikings for five players as well as what turned out to be eight draft choices as a result of conditional picks. Walker then had at best a mediocre few seasons with Minnesota before being traded again.


The Democrats made an even worse deal than that: to continue the analogy, it would be as if the Vikings traded every one of their draft picks for the next six years only for Walker, who then blew out a knee in his fifth game and never played again.


I am referring to the manner in which PPACA was passed through Congress in 2010 (not about whether it was a good law or not or whether they meant well or not, merely the process they went through to get it passed). Most of the promising Democrats' futures were wiped out in the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections, about the only Democrats who retained office were those in extremely safe districts / states anyway.

As a result of the process by which PPACA was passed, there were no decent young candidates for the Democrats to pick from, no Marco Rubios nor Scott Walkers even available as alternatives. If the Trump surge continues and he surprises us all next Wednesday morning, and if the Republicans hang onto a 51-49 Senate advantage as a result of last-minute revulsion at Clinton (the last Wikileaks dump hasn't happened yet....), you can chalk it up 100% to Pelosi and Reid in 2010. They were the ones who authored this mess today.

As has been posted before, given two terms, how the economy should have been going faster, PPCAC, etc- this should have been an easy job for the Republicans to take over the White House. So in that respect, Hillary Clinton was given her chance to win, but as a sacrificial lamb vs. one that should have had an easy time to win.

IMHO, Democrats who considered running know history, know how this "should" have played out, and other than Bernie bringing up really solid left ideas, didn't want to sacrifice the rest of their careers by running now and losing. There were all of 3 people who started out in this race, so it's not as if this was totally unknown.

The Hillary hate started so early and completely, that for some reason, trump was nominated to take her down. In essence - people who identified with the republican party took it personally and emotionally that Hillary Clinton could not be President. They, and you, can not wrap your head around the idea that the number and time of investigations do not mean guilt.

Once that happened, historical trends stood on their head.

Basically, politics have changed SO much that the sacrificial lamb that Hillary Clinton should have been is now likely to become President because the republican party is falling apart so very, very badly.

Don't blame Democrats for that. Blame republicans.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Second note: Qualified doesn't mean competent.

Heck ... Article II, Section 1 says I'm "qualified":

No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.

- Natural born citizen (North Dakota, after statehood)
- Over age 35
- Resident of the US for entire life

And I'm more competent: I've never misinterpreted a confidential marking on a document for outlining. ;)
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

And while Silver said her lead is "tenuous" he also acknowledges the flaws in his numbers and still says that in most models she still wins. In all 3 right now she is over 65% to win and that is with polls that include the "Post Comey Letter" sampling. 6 of the posts on the top of his list right now are from that time period and they all have Hillary up except the LA Times. Even the IBD has her up 1 and that is one of the ones Drumpf likes! (and that polled til yesterday) ABC, which has been super volatile, has her up as well.

The other thing is that he has almost no path without Pennsylvania unless he flips a bunch of other states. Right now Pennsylvania is just not happening for him. Even Florida and NC which Nate has red right now...they are each uber close. (they are roughly within a 1% point of each other making them tossups)

And the final reason I am not worried really...high overall early voter turnout. We already are ahead of last years totals (even with down Black Voting in Florida and NC) and most pundits and pollsters agree that is what the Dems needed to see to feel confident going into Tuesday. It means they are engaged and this stupid FBI revolt isnt having the effect the GOP hoped for. the Dems needed people to get out and vote and they are.

Totally agree. Nevada is a great example. Nate has no choice to include a CNN poll showing Trump up 6% even though said poll has Hispanic voters making up only 8% of the total.....in Nevada. :confused: Meanwhile, in actual votes, of which 2/3rds of the total is most likely already cast, Hillary leads by 6% in the EV polling. So, how is Trump going to turn a 6% deficit with 2/3rd of the vote in, into a 6% victory?

Also in both NC and FL the black vote is catching up to their % of total voting pool. Combine that in FL with increased Hispanic turnout in EV, a larger margin of votes amongst them for Hillary vs Obama in 2012, and how women are 55% of the early vote as opposed to 52ish last time and its not looking good for the Trumpster.

But hey, Trump is only down 50K in early voting in Iowa vs the 90K margin Obama ran up in 2012, so he's got that going for him, which his nice. ;)

No one here is honestly arguing Hillary is the perfect candidate (except Rover, but he's a troll), so you can knock it off with the "Saint" Hillary crap. Compared to Tic-Tac Dough, or Aleppo Man, or Poison Ivy, she at least meets the base qualifications for the position. That's it.

I may or may not be a troll, and frankly I don't think so because trolls tend to be ugly and by all accounts I'm good looking, but kindly post a link please where I said Hillary was a perfect candidate? If you can't that would make you a liar, no?
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

I'm 31 and I know more than that boob Donald trump. I'd also make a much better president than him.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Please to not hold Scott Walker out as an example of a "decent young candidate." For those who care about education, the environment, and even job growth, he's been a disaster.

They have NO bench. None. Not until they change their ways.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

I was going to say, is there anyone really so dumb as to admit to it.

I know of a guy who admitted to being guilty of sexual assault to some guy on a bus...while wearing a microphone. So yes, there are people that stupid.
 
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