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Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

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Kepler said:
That is great; I wonder if they stream. I would listen just for that.

I actually used to pick up Bell's show's over air in Portland from all the way out in Nevada. It was the rock cocaine of High Weirdness. He basically got me through my PTSD from law school.
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Kep

640 AM in Toronto streams over the TuneIn app for your mobile phone.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

geezer said:
If we're still accepting hunches, gut feelings, anecdotes and hearsay... I've just got a feeling she's going to blow right through her polling ceiling and wipe the map like no one since Reagan. I'm thinking of the 1/3 or so of people who are meek and mild and going about their business, dorky kids who were picked on by such bullies in middle school (might be autobiographical), wives who show subservience to a possibly violent husband by "supporting" Trump, women everywhere who don't want to "lean in" too much with the old boys at work... quiet, sensible people who aren't saying so but can't wait to get in that voting booth and exercise their choice to send him crying to the scrap heap. Not because of Hillary, but because nobody in history has been so deserving of being slapped like Trump.
But then, I'm still kind of in disbelief that we nominated "Donald Trump" to be a presidential candidate so I could very well be wrong again.
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In reference to "we": YOU nominated Trump not me. ;)

To "Devil's Advocate" you, what you're saying is the inverse of the Michael Moore posit. I believe there'll be some (enough?) of both so as to not be able to recognize either and Clinton is in the 270+ by 2130 hours Eastern.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

The way Pat Buchanan tells it I would almost feel sorry for Pres. Hillary Clinton.
http://www.wnd.com/2016/10/a-presidency-from-hell/

Rep. Jim Jordan contends that Clinton may already have perjured herself. And as the full-court (impeachment) press would begin with her inauguration, Clinton would have to deal with the Syrians, Russians, Taliban, North Koreans and Xi Jinping in the South China Sea – and with Bill Clinton wandering around the White House with nothing to do.
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Uh, where Buchanan wrote "nothing", shouldn't that be "no one"? ;)
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

The Sicatoka said:
Closed circuit to Kepler:

You tend to watch 538. What's going on with their chance of winning graph?

I'm seeing a shape in the odds of winning tracking now similar to what was going on in late June and mid August. There's no way the gap can close in 12 days, but the curve has hit a local maxima (Oct 18) similar to the Jun-29-ish and Aug 15-ish local maximas and the slope for Clinton is now slightly negative.

Is that just late/more polling data?
Is that "bounce" (blip?) for Trump from Debate 3?
Is it just the electoral "circadian rhythm" in action?

You know how that site works.
Is there some math that (uniquely) they do causing that down the stretch because I just don't see anything that should be moving those numbers that direction.
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Well you linked the "Polls Only" which means that is what they are projecting the odds based on all the polls they have seen to date. Technically she is trending a bit down in that one as right before/right after debate 3 she was closer to 90%. (iirc...all 3 were closer to 90 then they are now)

My guess is that a few polls came out that weighted down her numbers in a few states (along with the 3 pro Drumpf polls) so they pushed the poll a little bit. The fact she is at that level at this point (these numbers reflect her post convention bump almost to a T) is why the GOP Senate is freaking out and the House feels they are in trouble. The fact that when they ran the model 20k times and she won over 80% of them is pretty remarkable.

Right now, she is trending at Obama '08 Electoral Numbers. It could get worse cause some states like Georgia are within the margin for error as well.

Ultimately, what is going to kill Drumpf despite it all is that he is losing all the swing states and he doesnt have the ground game and infrastructure to change it. Hell he already pulled out of Virginia and has a skeleton crew in Pennsylvania. He cant win without them...hell he still loses with them at his current rate.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

The Sicatoka said:
The way Pat Buchanan tells it I would almost feel sorry for Pres. Hillary Clinton.
http://www.wnd.com/2016/10/a-presidency-from-hell/



Uh, where Buchanan wrote "nothing", shouldn't that be "no one"? ;)
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If the Congress spends her first term trying to witch hunt her like they did Bill they will find out exactly what Drumpf did...it is a losing proposition. People dont care what Bill did (he is flipping teflon) and transitively they dont seem to care about whatever scandal they come up with her either. Benghazi got them nowhere, the email scandal hurt her for all of a week and the Clinton Foundation stuff gets brushed aside. Every second they waste on this stuff the more it makes her look like a victim and helps her numbers. I cant explain it but its true.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

The Sicatoka said:
I picked one; all three have the basic shape. < shrug >
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I wasnt ripping your pick, just stating a fact buddy. Each poll has a different setup. Polls Only is all based on what the polls says say, NowCast is what would happen if the election was today and Polls Plus is current polls weighted against (I think) historical outcomes. I am not a statistician so all I have is the "538 For Dummies" explanation :)
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

The Sicatoka said:
In reference to "we": YOU nominated Trump not me. ;)
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As long as normal Republicans keep saying that and really believe it, the longer people like trump will be nominated. People have been paying attention to the words that the "establishment" has been saying- and all of that has resulted in Trump.

Yes, this is YOUR fault. Just over a few decades of crap.

If you don't want to be part of the problem/solution, that's fine with me- it will bury the R's for a good, long, time.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Proof that Texas Voting Machines Are Rigged!!!

So there has been rumors flying about voting machines in Texas flipping votes from Drumpf to Clinton. It all stemmed from a few people posting stuff on Facebook about it. (the original person is shown in the first link) Drumpf found out about it and ran with it as proof that the Dems are rigging the machines in Texas. (he is getting LOTS OF CALLS ABOUT IT) He even contends they did it in the Romney election despite Romney winning the state by 16%...

Anyways the election officials say it is bunk, and that you can review your vote before you submit so you shouldnt make the mistake anyways. Then, if somehow you feel it is still screwed up you can just find an election official and they will let you resubmit. (or file a paper ballot)

Despite Drumpf’s suggestion that nefarious forces are at work, election officials in Texas report that “vote flipping” problems are the result of either aging, miscalibrated machines or user mistakes. When machine errors are brought to officials’ attention, they either direct voters to use another machine or cast a paper ballot.
As Collin County elections official Bruce Sherbet told the Dallas Morning News, “If we had someone in the polling place tell us, ‘Hey, it marked something other than what I marked on the screen,’ we would stop the process and ask the voter to show us.”
“We can absolutely verify and check that in front of the voter,” he added. “If there were a problem with a machine, it would immediately be taken out of service.”
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Anyways the best part of all of this is, if the machines are rigged they had to be rigged by the election officials. The election officials in Texas are Republican...so putting two and two together Donald J. Drumpf, the GOP Nominee for President, is accusing Republicans in Texas of rigging the election for Hillary Clinton :D

We are through the looking glass people!!
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

alfablue said:
As long as normal Republicans keep saying that and really believe it, the longer people like trump will be nominated. People have been paying attention to the words that the "establishment" has been saying- and all of that has resulted in Trump.

Yes, this is YOUR fault. Just over a few decades of crap.

If you don't want to be part of the problem/solution, that's fine with me- it will bury the R's for a good, long, time.
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I am not a registered Republican.
I didn't vote in any Presidential primary or caucus.
I stay away from party politics because I already know how hot dogs and sausage is made.
It wasn't me.

(Do they teach conflating at Michigan?)
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Mark Kirk decided to go down with the Trump ship.

The comment came after Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth, who is challenging Kirk for his Senate seat, noted that her family had served in the military since the American Revolution. Duckworth is a veteran who lost both her legs in the War in Iraq and received the Purple Heart for her service. After she had noted that she is a "daughter of the American Revolution," Kirk was given 30 seconds to respond. Instead, he opted for a one-line response: "I had forgotten that your parents came all the way from Thailand to serve George Washington."
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

The Sicatoka said:
I am not a registered Republican. I didn't vote in any Presidential primary or caucus. It wasn't me.
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for that matter, I'm not either, and I didn't vote Trump either (I actually voted for Kasich though knowing he didn't have a chance). I was saying "we" as in America, regardless of party affiliation/lack of... you, Sicatoka, seem to have understood that as I take it by your wink; others on here are getting all heated up about "who's to blame" while the most pinpointed blame I've been able to accept for Trumpism is "social media" and lack of critical thinking skills in general.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Handyman said:
Anyways the best part of all of this is, if the machines are rigged they had to be rigged by the election officials. The election officials in Texas are Republican...so putting two and two together Donald J. Drumpf, the GOP Nominee for President, is accusing Republicans in Texas of rigging the election for Hillary Clinton :D

We are through the looking glass people!!
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When you are paranoid* everyone is out to get you. Put all the amateur (or professional) remote analysis aside. They guy is paranoid.

He's (we believe) wealthy, powerful, influential, has a hot model wife, and he's flat out paranoid.


*a mental condition characterized by delusions of persecution, unwarranted jealousy, or exaggerated self-importance, typically elaborated into an organized system.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Regarding the election, I'll say 51/42/6/1 which would be the largest margin of victory since '84. If Trump looks like a sure loser, a lot of people are going to stay home. That wouldn't matter as much in past years because if Hillary looked like a sure winner Dems would stay home as well. The problem for the GOP is early voting. Dems can get their people out over 3 weeks time in critical states while Trump has blown off setting up a ground game.

For which states flip since the last election, NC and IA are most likely with a slightly less than 50% chance of AZ. Just don't see Georgia turning yet and while Trump may have had a decent chance in Ohio his absence of a GOTV infrastructure and the state party leaders hating him (Kasich, Portman, etc) is going to cost him that state.

Big issue for me is GOP reps in Hillary states, even if their districts are gerrymandered. Even if you're in a 55/45 partisan lean seat, you really need Trump's people to not get depressed and skip showing up on election day, especially since his campaign is making little effort to bring people to the polls.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

bronconick said:
Mark Kirk decided to go down with the Trump ship.
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That's awfully dismissive of Mark Kirk. We need to have a long, thorough discussion and analysis of his ideas on race and miscegenation. Not that I would ever support it, of course, but it's very important to me that everyone gives time and attention to his views that people from two different countries can't even get married. It was pretty darn smart and irreverent to say her family's military experience doesn't count because her mom is from Thailand. Perhaps instead of Swiftian we should start saying Kirkian.
 
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