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Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

dxmnkd316 said:
North Carolina has now flipped in the Now and P+.
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It flipped last night. We talked about it when Chuck Todd was brought up. That is what dropped her to 296.

edit: It flipped in polls not polls plus. Polls plus has her at 51.4%. Now has her at 49.7 so it is a toss up. Also remember Early Votes
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Kepler said:
Try "Women."

Among the states that go blue:

GA
AZ
SC
UT
TN
TX (by 5!)
AR
LA

If you do "Millenials" Clinton gets 479 EV.
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Hey, I guess Millenials can do something right. For once...

Try white, no college. :eek:

ETA: Non-white, College+ --> 508 to 21. lol. Wow.
Millenials, non-white ---> 518 to 13. oh my god.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

thinking about picking up some depends, cause I may **** myself

Rover, if you aren't wetting yourself over this you are overconfident. At least half of all Americans are complete morons. Brexit can happen here.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

ericredaxe said:
Remember I said that Hillary was a terrible candidate? Anyone starting to agree with me more now?

I still am predicting she will win....
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No, I don't agree with you any more than I did before.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Kepler said:
Nate lays out how it can happen here.
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Should the race tighten as Nate shows in the second scenario you get to an electoral map like today's RCP no toss up. What's sort of interesting to me is that it gives Trump all the states that he has at some point in this Head to Head race led in. (Mostly post R convention) The only other state in the Union Trump has had a lead in at any point in the race is NH, which would put him at 269. He also led ME2 at one point for 270 exactly.

He's never led in CO, PA, WI, etc. so it seems to me those all have been demonstrably out of reach at his best numbers, even though they are spending big in CO and some of the others and going there.

Hils just needs NC or FL and it's over early in the evening. (To me, living here, Florida feels a bit like it will go Red. Which isn't worth anything as a prediction.)

My personal worst case scenario is a 2000 like result that is in doubt and extends the long National Nightmare of this campaign. :(
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

She has run a far better campaign than I thought she would. It's her against the entire Right Wing Noise Machine, and she's holding serve. For all the man hours and dollars the GOP has spent for 25 years demonizing her and programming their captives to hate her, she just needs a solid week and she'll be President of the United States. And as a bonus she'll have beaten off the first serious attempt of a fascist seizure of government in our history.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

BassAle said:
thinking about picking up some depends, cause I may **** myself

Rover, if you aren't wetting yourself over this you are overconfident. At least half of all Americans are complete morons. Brexit can happen here.
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Even if he is nervous, he can't show it now. Not after having spent some 23 months playing the role of HRC Cocky PR Bast*rd.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Daughter's decision to move to Vancouver in August is looking inspired. Great location and she took a job there as an immigration attorney. :)
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Wisko McBadgerton said:
Hils just needs NC or FL and it's over early in the evening. (To me, living here, Florida feels a bit like it will go Red. Which isn't worth anything as a prediction.)
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538 agrees. Is it too much to ask Trump to trip on his own dick one last time?
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

burd said:
Daughter's decision to move to Vancouver in August is looking inspired. Great location and she took a job there as an immigration attorney. :)
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BC is the place to go. PQ is great if you are fluent. Otherwise, the prairies are the same everywhere (colder Kansas), Alberta thinks it's Texas, the Maritimes look more miserable than the British Isles.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Handyman said:
But...emails!!

nate said the difference will be if the Black People vote...well here is another reason they should.
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If Trump says we need the 50s, I say we need Kerouac, Ginsberg and Ferlinghetti.
 
Handyman said:
I am not going to lie, I am almost at the point I cant joke around about this anymore. We need some good news...
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You're not far from Canada.
SteveP said:
Belize. :rolleyes:

Canada, and especially Ontario, is just as FUBAR as the US. Trudeau's honeymoon is over already -- he's nothing more than Obama-lite.
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I didn't realize my friend was on Heisenberg's hit list.

If by Obama-lite you mean Obama without Gitmo, drone strikes and endless war in the Middle East, that sounds like just what my friend is seeking.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

BassAle said:
thinking about picking up some depends, cause I may **** myself

Rover, if you aren't wetting yourself over this you are overconfident. At least half of all Americans are complete morons. Brexit can happen here.
Click to expand...

Sorry but that's absurd. As I've told the bedwetters before, if you're this nervous about a race we're winning with all available evidence (non-partisan polling, early voting, electoral map, etc) what were you people like when your wives went into labor with your kids? Were you the dad passed out on the floor of the delivery room who needed more medical attention than your spouse? :rolleyes:

Trump NEEDS to improve his #'s amongst educated voters who voted for Romney. If they so much as stay home he's screwed. If they vote Hillary, he's doubly screwed. Buck up and enjoy the ride.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

So we have Drumpf supporters burning a Black Church (will the media call them terrorists?) and (I am guessing) Drumpf Supporters killing cops in Iowa. Nice work Republicans...

(we wont even get into the stuff he is personally accused of)

But hey...EMAILS!!1!!!!!!!1!!
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Kepler said:
538 agrees. Is it too much to ask Trump to trip on his own dick one last time?
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Here's the thing. Every time the public is exposed to Trump, they hate him. All you need to do is look at the key dates in the campaign (polls-only). Let's start with the conventions, where Hillary went from a 1.3% (votes) lead to a peak of 7%. Then you have August and September where the public slowly forgot about Donald and he closed the gap to 1.5% just before the first debate. After the first debate, this jumped to 5.6%. After the second, 6.9%. Now we're at 3.7%.

If you look at the three models from 538, these dates would be (now/poll/p+):
0.2 / 1.3 / 2.1
9.7 / 7.0 / 4.6
1.2 / 1.5 / 1.2
6.0 / 5.6 / 4.3
6.6 / 6.9 / 5.7
3.6 / 3.7 / 3.3

The public hates Donald Trump. They're just too stupid to realize it.
 
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