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Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Handyman said:
I still feel pretty comfortable betting those of us that are involved in the industry have infinitely more knowledge on the subject that you do.
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You don't work in the industry though. You work in a competing one. I'm sure you could find plenty of people who will tell you coal power will last forever too, that coincidentally, have 20+ years working in the coal industry.

As far as cost, if one automated truck can replace the cost of two drivers, that becomes pretty easy for any company to amortize.

And even if we're talking only a 25% reduction in work force, that's more than double the number of coal jobs lost in the last 30 years, and spread over a more diverse geographic area. That's awfully high stakes to be betting on what has historically been the losing side of the Innovator's Dilemma.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

dxmnkd316 said:
I think you guys misjudge just how much money is being put into automated big rigs. The industry is moving that way. If anything having that much experience makes you far less apt to believe it.

In ten years, I don't doubt we'll have entire highways with dedicated systems for it.
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The industry is going that way because one of its primary problems is the time limitation on drivers behind the wheel. If they can figure out a way to keep trucks from spending eight hours idling away money in a rest area or truck stop once or twice a day, that would be a huge boon to the industry. That and safety increases.

However, the idea that within 10 years we're just going to have fleets of eighteen wheelers rolling down dedicated highways with empty cabs is extreme. There are too many issues that would have to be addressed including refueling. There is also the issue of what happens when the truck gets to its destination. I'm sure private industry is going to be thrilled to have to hire drivers to keep at their plants to handle the backing up into the loading docks, the unloading of cargo, etc...

Trucking firms want automated trucks. But they're still going to have drivers riding along.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

All 3 538 aggregates, Polls, PollsPlus and NowCast have now stabilized with Hillary +7 points; 87% ± 2%. The variance for Senate has also noticeably tightened with D +5 seats; 77% ± 2%. USC and Rasmussen both have the race tied which means Trump and his innumerate followers are going to get a big surprise if they lose by 10 and obviously they'll blame the media and "certain communities." The FBI will be busy the next few years.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

SJHovey said:
There is also the issue of what happens when the truck gets to its destination. I'm sure private industry is going to be thrilled to have to hire drivers to keep at their plants to handle the backing up into the loading docks, the unloading of cargo, etc...
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Backing into a loading dock is easy. You can buy a Ford Focus that can do that today. It's just a matter of plugging the right equations in for a vehicle of that size.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

MaizeRage said:
Backing into a loading dock is easy. You can buy a Ford Focus that can do that today. It's just a matter of plugging the right equations in for a vehicle of that size.
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3-D printing solves the whole problem. :-)
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Kepler said:
All 3 538 aggregates, Polls, PollsPlus and NowCast have now stabilized with Hillary +7 points; 87% ± 2%. The variance for Senate has also noticeably tightened with D +5 seats; 77% ± 2%. USC and Rasmussen both have the race tied which means Trump and his innumerate followers are going to get a big surprise if they lose by 10 and obviously they'll blame the media and "certain communities." The FBI will be busy the next few years.
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I think they're lowballing it. Even Fox has her up by 6% but most have it closer to 10%. In the Senate with the Dems starting to get some space in the NV race I'd be surprised if its less than a 6 seat gain. Even QU only had Rubio +2% in their latest poll, indicating that as expected cross over votes are disappearing.

Also I know its not the most reliable pollster but SurveyMonkey has McCain up 4% in a state where Trump is starting to slide. Not predicting a win here but keep an eye on that race. Vowing to block any and all Hillary SCOTUS nominees could backfire on him if Trump loses the state (why would you vote for Hillary and then a man determined to obstruct her Presidency?).
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Rover said:
I think they're lowballing it. Even Fox has her up by 6% but most have it closer to 10%. In the Senate with the Dems starting to get some space in the NV race I'd be surprised if its less than a 6 seat gain. Even QU only had Rubio +2% in their latest poll, indicating that as expected cross over votes are disappearing.

Also I know its not the most reliable pollster but SurveyMonkey has McCain up 4% in a state where Trump is starting to slide. Not predicting a win here but keep an eye on that race. Vowing to block any and all Hillary SCOTUS nominees could backfire on him if Trump loses the state (why would you vote for Hillary and then a man determined to obstruct her Presidency?).
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http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/polls.html

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...lights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

I'd love for Hillary to go for the kill tonight, but given she gained after the previous two by running fairly steady, we'll probably see much of the same.

I'll be eagerly awaiting Trump's bad mic/coke sniffles.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

MaizeRage said:
You don't work in the industry though. You work in a competing one. I'm sure you could find plenty of people who will tell you coal power will last forever too, that coincidentally, have 20+ years working in the coal industry.

As far as cost, if one automated truck can replace the cost of two drivers, that becomes pretty easy for any company to amortize.

And even if we're talking only a 25% reduction in work force, that's more than double the number of coal jobs lost in the last 30 years, and spread over a more diverse geographic area. That's awfully high stakes to be betting on what has historically been the losing side of the Innovator's Dilemma.
Click to expand...

I am just going to tell you your conclusions are simplistic and misinformed. I get what you are saying but your timeline is completely off.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Wisko McBadgerton said:
Because they don't like HRC policy, but HRC isn't Trump?
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That would be true if the outdated notion of all Goopers aren't Trump fanatics were accurate. As we've come to find out the vast, vast majority of GOP voters also worship Trump. So, Old Man McCain's fate is more tied to the Donald than pundidiots seem to think. Given him going all in on obstructionism I doubt he's going to get very many Dem cross over votes at this point.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

I applaud the mental strength it takes to keep trying to create your own reality: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewi...medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

"Even though we're doing pretty well in the polls, I don't believe the polls anymore," Trump told a crowd in Colorado Springs.

Trump made the same case to an audience in Grand Junction, Colorado, claiming both that the polls are not that bad for him and that he doesn’t think that they are accurate.

“You can't believe anything you see," he said Tuesday. "I don't even believe the polls. I see these polls and they’re not terrible. They’re sort of good. Actually if the people come out and vote, they’re very nervous. I have a feeling this is another Brexit.”
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Head hurts.

“Let’s say we’re tied,
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You're not.

then how come we have thousands and thousands of people, thousands and thousands?” Trump asked his supporters.
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Because rallies aren't votes.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

SJHovey said:
The industry is going that way because one of its primary problems is the time limitation on drivers behind the wheel. If they can figure out a way to keep trucks from spending eight hours idling away money in a rest area or truck stop once or twice a day, that would be a huge boon to the industry. That and safety increases.

However, the idea that within 10 years we're just going to have fleets of eighteen wheelers rolling down dedicated highways with empty cabs is extreme. There are too many issues that would have to be addressed including refueling. There is also the issue of what happens when the truck gets to its destination. I'm sure private industry is going to be thrilled to have to hire drivers to keep at their plants to handle the backing up into the loading docks, the unloading of cargo, etc...

Trucking firms want automated trucks. But they're still going to have drivers riding along.
Click to expand...


I think it is reasonable to assume that in 10 years long haul trucking will be done 90% on 'autopilot', but with a human trucker available to take over -- especially for the off-highway bits. It will be a while longer before it is 100% automated. I think we need some infrastructure improvements to facilitate a completely automated solution loading dock to loading dock, including automated refueling, etc.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Be interesting to see where Chris Wallace goes tonight
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Be interesting to see where Chris Wallace goes tonight
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

burd said:
Be interesting to see where Chris Wallace goes tonight
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Google News is telling me the Supreme Court. A perfect way to stop the bleeding among the conservative base. Much easier for the tyrannical carrot to scare everyone by screaming she's going to take away your guns and ban religion by nominating a new justice or two.

You couldn't pick a better topic.
 
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