Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes early

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

First number size, second number likelihood

- Never Hillary 20% 40% -->8 R
- Never Trump 30% 40% --> 12 D
- Pro Hillary 10% 80% --> 8 D
- Pro Trump 10% 90% --> 9 R
- Standard D 15% 40% --> 6 D
- Standard R 15% 40% --> 6 R

I won't fudge with your assumptions on Std Rs and Ds (though I might quibble with 40% turnout for each: the standard R/D folks I suspect will stay home rather than hold their nose and pull a party lever this time around). However, I believe you're wrong in a couple ways.

- Never Hillary 30% 50% -->15 R
- Never Trump 20% 40% --> 8 D
- Pro Hillary 15% 80% --> 12 D
- Pro Trump 5% 90% --> 4 R (rounded down)
- Standard D 15% 40% --> 6 D
- Standard R 15% 40% --> 6 R

Final totals: 26 D, 25 R <--- That's why I think it'll be close, really close.


PS - Should we as a nation be embarrassed that we know the "Never" groups are far more significant than the "Pro" groups? What's that say about us?

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

It looked very good 3 weeks ago, but now I don't think you can find anyone who thinks Hillary is a lock. This election will be anything between Hillary by 10 and Trump in a squeaker, but he still has something like a 1 in 5 or 6 chance.

In effect, the United States is playing one round of Russian Roulette.

Unless there is a massive electoral shift it is a virtual lock. (there is a reason the odds are still vastly in her favor despite support going down) She holds the (pardon the pun) trump cards cause she still leads in Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Ohio and North Carolina. Unless Drumpf makes headway there nothing else matters and we all know it. Notice her support there hasnt fallen off despite all the negative press.

Simple Math Scooby...

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Unless there is a massive electoral shift it is a virtual lock. (there is a reason the odds are still vastly in her favor despite support going down) She holds the (pardon the pun) trump cards cause she still leads in Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Ohio and North Carolina. Unless Drumpf makes headway there nothing else matters and we all know it. Notice her support there hasnt fallen off despite all the negative press.

Simple Math Scooby...

Math never seems to matter in Reality TV. Hillary is Kerry X 40.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

The strange thing is this: http://yournewswire.com/putin-hacked-emails-reveal-that-clinton-threatened-sanders-wife/

That was a story from July which Wikileaks said was a badly botched Russian troll job with the same story.

As a fervent Bernie supporter I have no doubt that: (1) the DNC was in the tank for Clinton, (2) Bernie was repeatedly told there would be political repercussions for challenging Clinton, and (3) allegations of literal, hamfisted threats are nonsense concern trolling concocted and passed along by anti-Clinton and anti-Bernie actors.

(1) and (2) are the way the sausage gets made and have been true of every race down to town dog catcher since the earth was young.

(3) is simply too dumb a thing for the Adults to do. Put it this way: even Trump wouldn't be that obvious, and that is the lowest bar in national politics.

Like I said it doesnt pass the smell test...Assange is getting desperate.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Like I said it doesnt pass the smell test...Assange is getting desperate.

Or he's a carnival barker trying to hold the crowd until the final act behind the curtain is dressed.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Math never seems to matter in Reality TV. Hillary is Kerry X 40.

Is she? How so? Kerry was a ***** who couldnt even defend himself when his military record was questioned. Hillary does more in random speeches than Kerry ever did.

Nice try Scooby but that analogy doesnt fly.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Or he's a carnival barker trying to hold the crowd until the final act behind the curtain is dressed.

Eh he doesnt need to do that...people read what Wikileaks puts out whether he talks or not. He doesnt need to be PT Barnum...

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Is she? How so? Kerry was a ***** who couldnt even defend himself when his military record was questioned. Hillary does more in random speeches than Kerry ever did.

Nice try Scooby but that analogy doesnt fly.

I'm referencing the hatred meter. On the hatred meter it's NO CONTEST.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

I'm referencing the hatred meter. On the hatred meter it's NO CONTEST.

Hated? Some hate Hillary. Some hated Gore.

No one hates John Kerry. They pity him the same way you pity that kid in HS who's a giant ****** but doesn't know it. (Sorry Handy. )


Edit: I did not know a water injection device for hygiene got the asterisk treatment here.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

PS - Should we as a nation be embarrassed that we know the "Never" groups are far more significant than the "Pro" groups? What's that say about us?

I think it says this election is an anomaly. There was no "Never Romney" group, and while the "Never Obama" group was big (due to ahem sociocultural factors) the Pro Obama group was larger. There was no "Never McCain" group (though there was a "Never Palin" group -- maybe the only time in history the Veep choice was more important than the top of the ticket as far as that).

This election is a perfect storm. Even though the Echo Chamber tries to churn up "for all x member of D, x = Satan" in every election, this time they get someone they have been actively demonizing for 25 years. On the other side, there's an actual wanna-be fascist dictator who has insulted 50% of the country and has spent the last 40 years in the public eye as a clown and a creep.

Charlie Manson would get higher negatives than these two, but I'm not sure anybody else would clearly blow them out of the water. Bieber's not eligible to run.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Hated? Some hate Hillary. Some hated Gore.

No one hates John Kerry. They pity him the same way you pity that kid in HS who's a giant ****** but doesn't know it.

I'd say the same went for Gore. Honest hatred of Gore? The Koch Brothers defending their market share, but Manbearpig was about disdain, not hate.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

The dinosaur Patrick J Buchanan rolled this one out today:

"Other than being the first woman president, what is the great change that Hillary Clinton offers America?"

This goes to my motivated, who shows up, thoughts.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

The dinosaur Patrick J Buchanan rolled this one out today:

"Other than being the first woman president, what is the great change that Hillary Clinton offers America?"

This goes to my motivated, who shows up, thoughts.

Barack Obama offered massive change? What changed? Nothing. He was blocked at every turn. At this point the change that Hillary offers is a Liberal Court. And it will be a MASSIVE change on the scale the country hasn't seen in over 50 years.

So, there's your CHANGE Patrick. Your article is a 10 on the stupidity scale.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

The dinosaur Patrick J Buchanan rolled this one out today:

Good lord, Pat is still butt hurt about Watergate, and still doesn't understand the magnitude of Nixon's criminal culpability. Amazing. I think it is fair to say he is never going to get it.

The Court is the obvious huge change -- after enduring first the rearguard actions of a center-right Court for 20 years and then the slashing attacks of a radical right Court for the next 20, we are on the verge of a return to a rational Court that is not fifty years behind the rest of the country. If Hillary does nothing else during her time in office she will remake the entire federal judiciary and finally get US con law unstuck from 1971 with occasional forays back to the Lochner Era.

The very terror of the far right is they know their judiciary holiday is about to end, and the nation's highest Court will begin to address major economic changes of the last half century and upset much of the right wing gravy train. Why else would guys like Pat be so histrionic in their condemnation of her?

The right has tried to argue that on the one hand Hillary represents nothing but a continuation of grid lock (never mind that they are the grid lockers...), but on the other hand that the stakes have never been higher. Their own contradiction refutes them.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Good lord, Pat is still butt hurt about Watergate, and still doesn't understand the magnitude of Nixon's criminal culpability. Amazing. I think it is fair to say he is never going to get it.

C'mon Kep, the linguistically correct usage is ... butthurt.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

C'mon Kep, the linguistically correct usage is ... butthurt.

I believe either is acceptable according to Emily Post.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

2012, 2008: ObamaNation turned out in force for the nation's first black President (sorry Bill).
2004, 2000: Ds turned out to vote against another Bush.
1996: Bill inspired people in his first term and they came out.
1992: Ol' "Read My Lips" had people show up to vote against him.

So, where's that put Hillary? She's not inspiring people to come out (ala 2012, 2008, or 1996) unless Mr. Obama does a lot of work for her over the next fifty days. And folks won't come out "against" Trump like they will with an incumbent they dislike (ala 1992). Alternatively, Hillary is the meta-incumbent and folks will come out to vote against her.

Given all those factors, what I suspect it will be something like ... 2000. If* Trump wins it'll be in the Electoral College, but will probably be within 500k nationally in the popular vote.


*That's a great big all-caps, bold, underlined if.

2016 for Obama voters is do you want to have the people obstructing him and questioning his citizenship holding all the reign of power and undoing everything he did? The answer is a resounding no, just like it was 4 years ago. This election would be more of a concern if Obama's approval ratings were under 50% and the GOP nominated a non-threatening grandfatherly type. They didn't. So, essentially Hillary walks into the election with a 4%, 5M vote lead as a baseline. Her personal unpopularity vs Obama would cut into that, but Trump's massive unpopularity vs Romney more than negates that. In this regard is where Goopers screwed up. Normally indifferent lefty voters in terms of Hillary are going to come out to not hand victory to the knuckledraggers. Kep is a good example of this.

Every election we hear the same drivel. GOP voters care, Dem voters, particularly young people and minorities don't. That was the premise behind President Romney. What doesn't change is the fact that the GOP base is dwindling relative to the Dem base. In a base election, the Democrats win in Presidential years. There's more of them than their are Republicans. Trump will be a factor if he gets his educated voter # closer to his uneducated voter #'s. That would also coincide with his popularity going up. Short of that, the notion that only his voters are going to show up while everybody else stays home is absurd.

He has his chance if he kills it in the debates. Not just one debate, as the aforementioned President Romney and President Mondale can tell you, but in all of them. Short of that the math just isn't there for him. He needs converts, not the hope that a bunch of 70 year olds are going to double their participation this year.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

He needs converts, not the hope that a bunch of 70 year olds are going to double their participation this year.

The GOP is going to soon experience something the Dems had to go through in the 80s: it sucks when such a significant portion of your base is old that they are literally dying every day. That's what happened when New Deal Dems starting kicking the bucket and we couldn't replace them fast enough. I'm not sure if we're quite there yet with the GOP base, but it's coming and it is extremely unpleasant.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

I believe either is acceptable according to Emily Post.

She's butthurt because she's wrong about it.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

She's butthurt because she's wrong about it.

She was butt hurt about her husband, that's for sure. He liked chorus girls a little too much.