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Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

I used to be a third party booster, but two things stopped me cold:

1. 2000
2. I realized that we're not set up for it unless we modify this part of the 12th Amendment:

The person having the greatest Number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.
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In a strong 3+ party system that language means the WY delegation gets the same clout as the CA delegation in picking the president, and that's an undemocratic way to elect a president.

The 2 party system might be salvageable with campaign finance reform. It did work pretty well over some parts of our history. I mean, only one major rebellion and no revolutions so far -- that's a great record.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

There's nothing fundamentally flawed with the two party system. Its served us pretty well for 200+ years. Especially with the checks and balances system that we have set up. You don't have a British parliamentary system where one party can run wild for 5 years. There's a constant ebb and flow dictated by the American people every two to four years.

The current problem is that one party is dying, or at least its view of the world is, but its clinging to an outdated ideology harder and harder in the hopes that the nation will come back to it. Eventually after a couple more cataclysmic losses the GOP will ditch the racists and Randians and try to cobble together a majority coalition for Presidential races. In the meantime toddler like tantrums and obstructionism will continue until the votes punish it at the ballot box. Dems went through this 30 years ago. Now its the Republicans turn.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Yeah, the two-party system has worked great for at least 200 years. That's why Lincoln was elected on what was then the upstart third-party Republicans. (Goodbye to the Whig Party!)
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Handyman said:
No one should blindly vote anything...but there are plenty more blind voters for the Dems and GOP than there are for third parties.
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only by number because 3rd party candidates get fewer votes overall. a large percentage of those 3rd party voters are doing it as a protest vote or throw away vote because they don't like the two major party candidates, they actually have no clue what the 3rd party candidate's platform is. I know some Bernie fans that are hot and bothered over Johnson just because he isn't Hillary or Trump. I also know other people that have bought into the GOP smear campaign and "can't vote for Hillary" (but they can't give a coherent argument why not) and are also put off by Trump. They are saying they'll go 3rd party, but don't even know anything about Johnson or Stein.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Parties have died before. We've even had a run of single party rule before (the Era of Good Feelings). I am inclined to agree with you that this too shall pass. But it's possible that we're not seeing the death throes of the GOP, but it's rebirth. What if what the GOP is right now is it's long term future?

The Fifth Party system (32-68) was defined by reaction to the Great Depression: the Democrats were labor and the Republicans were capital. The Sixth Party System (68-12 or thereabouts) was defined by reaction to the cultural upheaval of the 60s: the Democrats were social liberals and the Republicans were social conservatives.

The Culture Wars are over, now. Something else is happening. A Seventh Party System is being created, and the issues of the day are new: walls vs openness, isolationism vs engagement, cultural purity vs multiculturalism.

I'd argue the Democrats made the first move in this transition which is why they can function now while the GOP is seizing up. The GOP is just now fully swapping out their old rhetoric (explicit Christianity, small government, rugged individualism) because their old language isn't relevant to the modern era. The GOP is at a crossroads because although right now they seem to be headed to a very dark place, that need not happen. They could emerge as an anti-globalist, anti-imperial, Jeffersonian movement rather than a fascist National Front. Maybe a truly astounding defeat in November can deflect them from the latter to the former.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Slap Shot said:
As a % of total voters? How could you possibly know that to be true?
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Where did I say it was a % of voters? I said there are more and that is it ;)

But if you go by the idea that many around here post that a wicker chair with an R or D behind their name could get 35% of the vote that would be a good starting spot.

That said how can we even know people are "blindly voting" anyways? Because some random Bernie supporters are going for Johnson? That proves nothing.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

I think if people really understood their platforms they'd be less bombastic about going 3rd is all. I want to but I'm not all that sold nor enthusiastic about them even with Hillary's baggage.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Slap Shot said:
I think if people really understood their platforms they'd be less bombastic about going 3rd is all. I want to but I'm not all that sold nor enthusiastic about them even with Hillary's baggage.
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Yeah the more I read of the 3rd party candidates the more I walked away from them.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Kepler said:
In a strong 3+ party system that language means the WY delegation gets the same clout as the CA delegation in picking the president, and that's an undemocratic way to elect a president.
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We aren't a democracy; we're a republic. We pick representatives to do the details for the whole. But, no matter, if you don't like the 12th Amendment you're stuck with it. There's no recourse. Oh, wait, ... yes there is: Constitutional Convention. Have at it. ;)
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Handyman said:
But if you go by the idea that many around here post that a wicker chair with an R or D behind their name could get 35% of the vote that would be a good starting spot.
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No way Handy. You are wrong.

It'd be closer to 40%.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

The Sicatoka said:
We aren't a democracy; we're a republic. We pick representatives to do the details for the whole. But, no matter, if you don't like the 12th Amendment you're stuck with it. There's no recourse. Oh, wait, ... yes there is: Constitutional Convention. Have at it. ;)
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A republic is a democratic system. The WY = CA fails because it's not representative of the size of the two populations, not because the delegations represent the people.

We've messed with the rules for electing the president before -- that's why the target for change is itself an amendment.

If people get mad enough at the two parties we could have a slew of amendments. Historically* they come in bunches. In fact I'd say that's what we do instead of raising the barricades and burning down the capital, and it has served us well.

* In some ways we're just refighting the 1890s and the populist movement. The villains are the same: corruption and inequality. Last time we got direct election of Senators, this time we might get a constitutional restriction of the bill of rights to humans instead of dollar bills.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Rover said:
Redirecting money down ballot to save Goopers from a Trump implosion isn't going to work very well. Very, very few incumbents in Congress have come out against him, most likely because he represents their views pretty well. Now you own him. State races are a different story as people tend to split their votes more in those.

Were I cursed enough to be running the RNC, your only hope is to prop up the guy in swing states to minimize his losses even though you know he's doomed and thus allow some people to hang onto their seats. The template, while dated, is the 1996 election which was over shortly after the convention, but where Dole kept it just close enough to avoid disaster downballot. Two things to remember though: 1) Dole was better thought of than Trump, and 2) people don't ticket split as much now. So, knucks' in NY, NJ, NH, CA to the extent they exist are screwed. Put all your resources into Ohio, FL, AZ, NC - places where you have a lot of Reps and hope they can outrun the top of the ticket.
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Gerrymandering is far more effective now than ever before. Without a Hillary win of epic proportions (400+ electoral votes and a bigger popular vote margin than anyone since 1984) there will be no down ballot disasters for the GOP. I have almost no doubt in my mind that the Senate will stay under GOP control, and there is zero doubt that House will still be controlled by Republicans. I think absent some unforeseen chaos that has a severe effect on Republican voter turnout, like Trump being forced out of the race, this election will be an Obama 2012 like win (God help us otherwise), with a handful of house gains for Democrats and no more than a sear or two in the Senate.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

WeAreNDHockey said:
I have almost no doubt in my mind that the Senate will stay under GOP control, and there is zero doubt that House will still be controlled by Republicans. I think absent some unforeseen chaos that has a severe effect on Republican voter turnout, like Trump being forced out of the race, this election will be an Obama 2012 like win (God help us otherwise), with a handful of house gains for Democrats and no more than a sear or two in the Senate.
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We're about 70/30 to retake the Senate under Cook and Sabato. We could blow it but it would take a couple bad breaks. Remember, gerrymandering does not affect Senate seats.

The House we need a wave. It can happen, even with gerrymandering. The GOP flipped 63 seats in 2010.
 
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unofan said:
The five episodes you need to watch (if only once, as in the case of at least one of them):

Amazon Women in the Mood
Jurassic Bark (and/or Luck of the Fryrish, but for God's sake not both in the same sitting)
The Devil's Hands are Idle Playthings
Fry and the Slurm Factory
That Darn Katz

The whole series is on Netflix, last I looked.
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Deep South is probably my favorite. That and the one where Bender gets lost in space and meets the almighty.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Kepler said:
We're about 70/30 to retake the Senate under Cook and Sabato. We could blow it but it would take a couple bad breaks. Remember, gerrymandering does not affect Senate seats.

The House we need a wave. It can happen, even with gerrymandering. The GOP flipped 63 seats in 2010.
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Anything is possible. The Republicans performance in 2010 was a once in about a hundred year event. The vitriolic nature of the mid-term election that year was a preview of what we've seen out of so many Trump supporters this year, with the tea bag republicans spouting hatred as much as the traditional "Republican" stance about taxes, terrorism or state's rights (anti-PPACA stuff mostly this time around). I just don't see the Democrats picking up the 30 seats they need to win control.

I think a huge win by Clinton will help some key Senate races. Bayh is going to win in Indiana and she could give a lift to the Democratic candidates in NC or NH. I also think as long as she stays strong in PA Toomey's days might be numbered. Unfortunately as long as the Senate has at least 41 members in the opposite party of either the other side of Congress or the White House (something that is a virtual certainty), it isn't going to make much difference. For the foreseeable future unless both houses of Congress AND the White House are under the control of one party, gridlock and inertia will be all we see out of Washington pols.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Stolen from Facebook:

"It Trump had founded ISIS it would be bankrupt by now"

Now that is a good line :)
 
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