Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

There is a very decent chance he could win. Even in the normal forecast on 538, he's gotten above the 40% threshold, and the polls were already moving in his favor prior to the convention. So it's not just a convention bounce, the email thing is sticking.

I think you'll start to hear the spin of "another email thing".

Yeah, Hillary is not directly in this one, but it will be spun as: Hillary, email, no security 2.0

And yes, Trump finally getting over the 40% number is big. That was his "glass ceiling" (<-- see what I did there?). That could be a sign that he convinced a few folks last week.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

I'll repeat again. There is little chance of him winning. Anybody who forecasts an election the weekend after one party finishes its convention but the other hasn't had theirs yet has too much time on their hands.

If you people are this nervous about a November election in July, what were you guys like when your wives went into labor? Did you get run out of the delivery room by the nurses because you all soiled yourselves or kept fainting? Geesh, lighten up people. If Trump is winning in late October, get nervous. He just had his convention and he's no better than even in polling.

Being that 538 is the site quoted for this, I know they did an article about convention bumps...I wonder if they are adjusting for that?

 

[ericredaxe]

I think it's time all of us realized that we've gotten lazy and allowed ourselves to choose the lessor of two evils for far to long and we need to take back some of the power we've allowed the 2 major parties to accumulate. I think we all need to vote 3rd party and change the dynamic of america politics. I'm voting Johnson/Weld.

I am doing the same. Really hope they get into the debates.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

We seem to be missing the point here which is:

DEBBIE WASSERMAN SCHULTZ IS GONE!!!! Read something that the only reason she had been employed this long is because of Obama's indifference to matters like this (a BIG error during his entire Presidency of not paying enough attention to politics). Sanders wanted her gone for reasons already discussed and Clinton thought even back at the beginning of the year that she was a needless distraction but Obama wouldn't make the change.

I have no idea how good or bad Donna Brazile is, but as long as she isn't an embarrassment we're in good shape. Of DWS many problems, an inability to communicate was near the top. Brazile shouldn't have that problem as a talking head on several cable news outlets and I heard Bernie's people preferred her.

Lastly, Kep, give it a rest. Sanders lost because people preferred Clinton. He got smoked by 4M votes. DWS and the DNC couldn't organize a one car funeral.

She's not completely gone. She's on Clinton's campaign team.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

I think it's time all of us realized that we've gotten lazy and allowed ourselves to choose the lessor of two evils for far to long and we need to take back some of the power we've allowed the 2 major parties to accumulate. I think we all need to vote 3rd party and change the dynamic of america politics. I'm voting Johnson/Weld.

How is that going to take power back exactly? I am all for voting third party (I am doing it) but lets not pretend it makes any difference. Johnson/Weld arent going to win a state let alone the Election. All you are doing is tacitly accepting the status quo and risking a Brexit like debacle.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

If the election were today, Trump would be an 11:9 favorite over Clinton, according to 538's now-cast.

I'm this close to hopping on the ScoobyDoo train.

It will normalize post DNC...but yeah this is getting sickening.

 

[unofan]

Being that 538 is the site quoted for this, I know they did an article about convention bumps...I wonder if they are adjusting for that?

They aren't adjusting their model, they're letting it do its thing. Silver said the main thing he did wrong during the primaries was not believing his own model enough when it kept saying Trump was going to win.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

There is very little chance Trump will win. His appeal is all angry old uneducated white guys who are dwindling by the day.

No they arent...in fact the number seems to be growing.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

How is that going to take power back exactly? I am all for voting third party (I am doing it) but lets not pretend it makes any difference. Johnson/Weld arent going to win a state let alone the Election. All you are doing is tacitly accepting the status quo and risking a Brexit like debacle.

How do you know? There are a ton of people EVERYONE that don't like Hillary NOR Trump so we're all just suppose to pick the one that stinks less?

I suggest everyone go find a friend that you disagree with politically and each of you agree to vote Johnson and see how things go. IF enough of us did that, we wouldn't be "helping the other side win" and we'd actually have a shot at telling the 2 major parties to go F themselves.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

They aren't adjusting their model, they're letting it do its thing. Silver said the main thing he did wrong during the primaries was not believing his own model enough when it kept saying Trump was going to win.

In his defense, with that many people running it is hard to trust any model.

On this though I will start to really worry 2 weeks after the DNC. No more bumps then.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

How do you know? There are a ton of people EVERYONE that don't like Hillary NOR Trump so we're all just suppose to pick the one that stinks less?

I suggest everyone go find a friend that you disagree with politically and each of you agree to vote Johnson and see how things go. IF enough of us did that, we wouldn't be "helping the other side win" and we'd actually have a shot at telling the 2 major parties to go F themselves.

I tell everyone to vote 3rd party so how about you tone down the condescension. Problem is as long the Electoral College exists the 3rd party is useless. Minnesota will go Blue because Minneapolis will be Blue. A couple of hundred votes wont change that.

Stats dont lie, there is not one state Johnson/Weld have any sort of chance to win. Last poll had them at what 13%? That wont even get you in the debate let alone any EC votes. Nothing is impossible, but it would take a revolution for it to happen, and they arent the guys that inspire such a revolution. The only way to make it work is to peel off the bases and neither base will budge. Christ Bernie tried and couldnt make a dent.

In my heart I want it to happen, but the system is set up so it wont.

 

[Scarlet]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

I think I want to start listing out everything Trump said he would do starting on January 20, 2017. Mostly for my Facebook friends who have been pontificating forever about what Trump is going to do when he becomes president. So, when/if he wins and can't get half of this stuff started, I want them to respond to me about how they told me he was.

 

[unofan]

How do you know? There are a ton of people EVERYONE that don't like Hillary NOR Trump so we're all just suppose to pick the one that stinks less?

I suggest everyone go find a friend that you disagree with politically and each of you agree to vote Johnson and see how things go. IF enough of us did that, we wouldn't be "helping the other side win" and we'd actually have a shot at telling the 2 major parties to go F themselves.

Since we don't have a parliamentary system that encourages minor parties to form coalitions once elected, the two major parties are the coalitions set up before the elections. Especially given the way the system is set up where the house will pick the winner in the event no one obtains a majority, it's the optimal way to play the game. The GOP contains the religious right, the libertarian wing, the neo - cons, the tea party, etc. The Dems have the liberals, the greens, the moderates, the minorities, etc.

The time to have this fight is way before November 8th. It needs to happen about years or decades earlier to get control of your applicable coalition and the base of support there.

If you want to vote third party, fine. But understand that if you live in a swing state and do that, it is implicitly voting for the major party candidate whom you wouldn't want to win, because you're not voting for the major party candidate whom you would pick.

Your vote is not without its tradeoff, and the Florida Nader voters should remember that.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Stats dont lie, there is not one state Johnson/Weld have any sort of chance to win. Last poll had them at what 13%? That wont even get you in the debate let alone any EC votes.

The Johnson/Weld campaign should focus on ME or NE, where they split their electoral votes. I don't think they'd get one out of NE, but might have an outside shot in ME.

... but the system is set up so it wont.

The system is rigged? Is that you Donald?

 

[joecct]

I wonder if there are more Wikileaks emails to come? My guess is yes but not until they can do some more damage

Supposedly Wikileaks will next release the Clinton server.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Supposedly Wikileaks will next release the Clinton server.

Bring it.

For those that missed it:
The DNC email searchable site.
The Hillary email searchable site.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

The system isnt rigged, the system is like the Casino...sure sometimes you might be able to win here or there...but ultimately the house always wins.

On another topic...watch John Oliver from last night. The things he points out about how the GOP has basically decided feelings = facts is right on. Too many people believe every opinion is truth now and the GOP is using that to their advantage.

 

[walrus]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

The Johnson/Weld campaign should focus on ME or NE, where they split their electoral votes. I don't think they'd get one out of NE, but might have an outside shot in ME.



The system is rigged? Is that you Donald?

Hilary has Maine. Perot did well in Maine but I doubt Johnson and Weld can get to 20% here.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

On another topic...watch John Oliver from last night. The things he points out about how the GOP has basically decided feelings = facts is right on. Too many people believe every opinion is truth now and the GOP is using that to their advantage.

That looks to me like the Rs finally figured out how to play the Ds game. For the longest time the Ds were the "what about the children" party and emoting on every issue. The Rs were the cold-hearted farhgin' bastages for trying to be logical. Now the Rs are iceholes for emoting. I love it.

The move to playing on emotion over fact and logic is what's pushed me away from both.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Let's see, power, no responsibility, and the money keeps on flowing in. Yeah, why would they upset their gravy train. Go out, shake the "the boogey-man is coming!" talisman at the group that keeps electing you (left or right) and keep cashin' checks from donors.

Cynical, but the data and the eye-test back it up.

Plus there are strong perverse incentives not to be principled. If you vote opposite of what the donors want they switch their checks to your opponent, and if you reach across the aisle for a bipartisan solution, you get primaried by your own party's base.