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Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was In)
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BoomGoestheDynamite
Registered User
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
Out of curiosity what does make Indian the South of the North? It's region (old Big Ten country) is mostly lean Blue with one swing state in Ohio? Why does Indiana pull so far to the right?
Out of curiosity what does make Indian the South of the North? It's region (old Big Ten country) is mostly lean Blue with one swing state in Ohio? Why does Indiana pull so far to the right?
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
My completely uninformed guess is: no big cities. I suspect rural IN is exactly like rural OH or PA or IL. There's just more of it.
My completely uninformed guess is: no big cities. I suspect rural IN is exactly like rural OH or PA or IL. There's just more of it.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
I have never lived in Indiana, but areas in the south along the Ohio river have a decided southern flavor. Wendell Berry, who writes so eloquently about rural life in northern Kentucky just across the Ohio from Indiana, portrays the rural, tobacco farming culture of fictional Port William (Port Royal, Ky) in ways similar to what Faulkner did with Mississippi, though with a softer stroke. He does this in multiple books over decades, and Port Royal has doubtless changed, but he describes a place and people that could be in Alabama.
I have never lived in Indiana, but areas in the south along the Ohio river have a decided southern flavor. Wendell Berry, who writes so eloquently about rural life in northern Kentucky just across the Ohio from Indiana, portrays the rural, tobacco farming culture of fictional Port William (Port Royal, Ky) in ways similar to what Faulkner did with Mississippi, though with a softer stroke. He does this in multiple books over decades, and Port Royal has doubtless changed, but he describes a place and people that could be in Alabama.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
Heh. "Bard of Ithaca" is good.
I will say it since others won't. Trump is screwed. If he's losing young voters, women, college educated voters, and minorities, who the fuk else is left? Old white non-college educated males and maybe their wives.
However, a 12% loss is a bit absurd. Trump most likely goes down by Obama-McCain like margins.
Heh. "Bard of Ithaca" is good.
I will say it since others won't. Trump is screwed. If he's losing young voters, women, college educated voters, and minorities, who the fuk else is left? Old white non-college educated males and maybe their wives.
However, a 12% loss is a bit absurd. Trump most likely goes down by Obama-McCain like margins.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
Probably. I was trying to find the Worst Case for him (and the Best Case for the rest of the universe). Obama beat McCain by 7.2%. If I had to make a spread on this election I would start it at Clinton -8 and let it float.
Probably. I was trying to find the Worst Case for him (and the Best Case for the rest of the universe). Obama beat McCain by 7.2%. If I had to make a spread on this election I would start it at Clinton -8 and let it float.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
People don't get that David Duke would draw 45% of the vote as the Republican nominee. Problem is the expanding voting pool. 12 years ago Bush's 62M votes were good for a solid 51% of the electorate. McCain only drew about 2M less votes but that 60M got him 46% or so. Romney's 61M votes earned him 47% of the (smaller than 2008) electorate.
So, even getting back up to Bush in 2004 vote totals will no longer get Trump to 50%. Not even close. The new voters coming in aren't voting GOP, most likely because they're younger and less white.
People don't get that David Duke would draw 45% of the vote as the Republican nominee. Problem is the expanding voting pool. 12 years ago Bush's 62M votes were good for a solid 51% of the electorate. McCain only drew about 2M less votes but that 60M got him 46% or so. Romney's 61M votes earned him 47% of the (smaller than 2008) electorate.
So, even getting back up to Bush in 2004 vote totals will no longer get Trump to 50%. Not even close. The new voters coming in aren't voting GOP, most likely because they're younger and less white.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
People don't get that people hate Hillary and the FBI just called her a liar. People don't get that if the hated of these two clowns reaches the levels it's bound to folks will stay home. People don't get that the more people stay home the better chance the Orange Buffoon will win.
People don't get that people hate Hillary and the FBI just called her a liar. People don't get that if the hated of these two clowns reaches the levels it's bound to folks will stay home. People don't get that the more people stay home the better chance the Orange Buffoon will win.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
People also don't get there are more Dem leaners than Republican leaners so Trump needs not an equal # of people staying home, but a lot more Dems than Republicans. Some people are still living in the 80's where Republicans had a turnout advantage, and refuse to believe the world changed some 24 years ago when Dems starting outvoting Republicans in Presidential races 5 out of the next 6 times. These people also tend to have a weird fascination with Republican politicians from Wisconsin...
For you nervous nellies out there...
https://politicalwire.com/2016/07/13/clinton-ahead-or-even-in-midwest-battlegrounds/
People also don't get there are more Dem leaners than Republican leaners so Trump needs not an equal # of people staying home, but a lot more Dems than Republicans. Some people are still living in the 80's where Republicans had a turnout advantage, and refuse to believe the world changed some 24 years ago when Dems starting outvoting Republicans in Presidential races 5 out of the next 6 times. These people also tend to have a weird fascination with Republican politicians from Wisconsin...
For you nervous nellies out there...
https://politicalwire.com/2016/07/13/clinton-ahead-or-even-in-midwest-battlegrounds/
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
She'll go in as the weakest President on inauguration day in US History. And that power will recede over time.
She'll go in as the weakest President on inauguration day in US History. And that power will recede over time.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
Compared to the prospect of Trump putting justices on the SCOTUS, these are small problems.
Compared to the prospect of Trump putting justices on the SCOTUS, these are small problems.
The Sicatoka
Kicizapi Cetan
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
< ding! >
This election is about turnout: who shows up.
Obama mobilized and energized people and they showed up. I don't see that happening for Hillary; by comparison she's not that inspiring.
What I see it coming down to is this:
Who can mobilize more of the "get out and vote against" vote.
A lot of folks don't like Trump; is it enough ire to go and vote against him?
A lot of folks don't like Clinton; is it enough ire to go and vote against her?
And it's not just the ire, it's the follow-through action to vote.
< ding! >
This election is about turnout: who shows up.
Obama mobilized and energized people and they showed up. I don't see that happening for Hillary; by comparison she's not that inspiring.
What I see it coming down to is this:
Who can mobilize more of the "get out and vote against" vote.
A lot of folks don't like Trump; is it enough ire to go and vote against him?
A lot of folks don't like Clinton; is it enough ire to go and vote against her?
And it's not just the ire, it's the follow-through action to vote.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
Yeah, that appears to be the automatic legacy of a Hillary Clinton Presidency. She will accomplish nothing else.
Yeah, that appears to be the automatic legacy of a Hillary Clinton Presidency. She will accomplish nothing else.
The Sicatoka
Kicizapi Cetan
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
Wow. Twice in a day I've agreed with Scoob.
New. League. Record.
Wow. Twice in a day I've agreed with Scoob.
New. League. Record.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
I'm guessing that many people will make a distinction between Clinton and Trump. As you say, many people hate Clinton and don't want her to be president. Many people hate Trump AND (I believe) consider him totally unfit for the presidency.
Also, if this election does indeed come down to mobilizing people in any way, Trump is in trouble--that requires organization.
I'm guessing that many people will make a distinction between Clinton and Trump. As you say, many people hate Clinton and don't want her to be president. Many people hate Trump AND (I believe) consider him totally unfit for the presidency.
Also, if this election does indeed come down to mobilizing people in any way, Trump is in trouble--that requires organization.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
Stopped Clock, etc.
Wow. Twice in a day I've agreed with Scoob.
New. League. Record.
Stopped Clock, etc.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
This is exactly right. Each candidate has about 25% of likely voters (educated women for Hillary, uneducated white men for Trump) enthusiastically supporting them. That leaves the other 50% of likely voters who will be motivated by their fear and loathing of the opponent.
I take some hope that Hillary is probably at peak loathing right now, coming right after the email boondoggle and right before the Bernie bump. Even if they follow through and keep raking her over the coals it will just make Republicans in Congress look petty and obnoxious, just as the Clinton BJ lie investigation backfired on them. People care a little about national security and classification markings. They don't give two spits about perjuring yourself when faced by a kangaroo court. They sympathize with the accused. OTOH, every time Trump opens his mouth he doubles down on all the garbage that makes sane people fear him and honorable people revile him. Trump is the best campaign ad Hillary can run, and because he has no self-awareness he will continue to run off at the mouth right up until either Election Day or, as likely, the day he quits rather than lose badly.
This is exactly right. Each candidate has about 25% of likely voters (educated women for Hillary, uneducated white men for Trump) enthusiastically supporting them. That leaves the other 50% of likely voters who will be motivated by their fear and loathing of the opponent.
I take some hope that Hillary is probably at peak loathing right now, coming right after the email boondoggle and right before the Bernie bump. Even if they follow through and keep raking her over the coals it will just make Republicans in Congress look petty and obnoxious, just as the Clinton BJ lie investigation backfired on them. People care a little about national security and classification markings. They don't give two spits about perjuring yourself when faced by a kangaroo court. They sympathize with the accused. OTOH, every time Trump opens his mouth he doubles down on all the garbage that makes sane people fear him and honorable people revile him. Trump is the best campaign ad Hillary can run, and because he has no self-awareness he will continue to run off at the mouth right up until either Election Day or, as likely, the day he quits rather than lose badly.
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Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
Also hit the Bulls' mascot twice.
New. League. Record.
Also hit the Bulls' mascot twice.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
Anyone who wants to take bets I am ready willing and able. It wont be a compelling victory nor will I be very happy about it but Hillary will win.
And Sic you dont want to agree with Scooby, this guy thought Scott Walker was a lock for the nomination not to mention about 3 other buffoons who went nowhere
Anyone who wants to take bets I am ready willing and able. It wont be a compelling victory nor will I be very happy about it but Hillary will win.
And Sic you dont want to agree with Scooby, this guy thought Scott Walker was a lock for the nomination not to mention about 3 other buffoons who went nowhere
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