Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
Maybe she should be in charge.
Maybe she should be in charge.
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Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was In)
- Thread starter joecct
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
What's missing from your analysis is that there's more Dems than Republicans, including independent leaners. So, Hillary voters would have to stay home in a much greater proportion than Trump voters in order to even the scales. Is that possible? Maybe when the possibility lingered of an unexpected indictment or if Bernie went independent on her. But now? Highly unlikely.
I second Handy's idea. Anybody putting bets on Trump let me know....
Grin is also right about the infrastructure to boost turnout. Trump somewhat remarkably made this way through the primaries with little to no actual organization. That's a lot harder to do in the general election.
What's missing from your analysis is that there's more Dems than Republicans, including independent leaners. So, Hillary voters would have to stay home in a much greater proportion than Trump voters in order to even the scales. Is that possible? Maybe when the possibility lingered of an unexpected indictment or if Bernie went independent on her. But now? Highly unlikely.
I second Handy's idea. Anybody putting bets on Trump let me know....
Grin is also right about the infrastructure to boost turnout. Trump somewhat remarkably made this way through the primaries with little to no actual organization. That's a lot harder to do in the general election.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
Not only is it possible, it happens every four years in off-cycle federal elections. All the GOP needs to do to win is turn the 2016 electorate into the 2014 electorate. In states they control they're already in the process of doing that through voter suppression tactics, and because they currently control a disproportionate number of state legs (what, 35?) a lot of states are under their control. If they can dampen enthusiasm by playing up the "this is the worst election ever..." rhetoric, maybe they can pull it off. One of the ways to do that is to constantly either exaggerate or just plain invent "scandals" to drive Hillary's negatives higher.
If there's one thing the GOP is still effective at it's negative campaigning.
I second that Trump being clueless about GOTV might be the thing that finally drives a stake through his tiny hands and into his heart. He's surrounding himself with the gang that couldn't shoot straight, and for obvious reasons as the tire fire continues to burn smart operatives won't want to hitch their wagon to that star.
Not only is it possible, it happens every four years in off-cycle federal elections. All the GOP needs to do to win is turn the 2016 electorate into the 2014 electorate. In states they control they're already in the process of doing that through voter suppression tactics, and because they currently control a disproportionate number of state legs (what, 35?) a lot of states are under their control. If they can dampen enthusiasm by playing up the "this is the worst election ever..." rhetoric, maybe they can pull it off. One of the ways to do that is to constantly either exaggerate or just plain invent "scandals" to drive Hillary's negatives higher.
If there's one thing the GOP is still effective at it's negative campaigning.
I second that Trump being clueless about GOTV might be the thing that finally drives a stake through his tiny hands and into his heart. He's surrounding himself with the gang that couldn't shoot straight, and for obvious reasons as the tire fire continues to burn smart operatives won't want to hitch their wagon to that star.
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Kepler
Si certus es dubita
The Sicatoka
Kicizapi Cetan
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
You can keep Tebow.
What time does Sheriff David Clarke speak?
You can keep Tebow.
What time does Sheriff David Clarke speak?
The Sicatoka
Kicizapi Cetan
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
This would be a whole lotta fun.
Condi! Condi! Condi!
< pass the popcorn >
This would be a whole lotta fun.
Condi! Condi! Condi!
< pass the popcorn >
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
Kep, buddy, name me the last general election when the turnout was as low as the mid-terms before and after it. Posts like this are why I think you are in fact employed by CNN.
Kep, buddy, name me the last general election when the turnout was as low as the mid-terms before and after it. Posts like this are why I think you are in fact employed by CNN.
ericredaxe
Veteran
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
Do I think Hillary will win? Probably yes..... But don't underestimate how uninspiring and unlikeabke she is to the non-partisan crowd.
These might be the two worst candidates I remember.
Do I think Hillary will win? Probably yes..... But don't underestimate how uninspiring and unlikeabke she is to the non-partisan crowd.
These might be the two worst candidates I remember.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
Trump called her over the weekend to ask her one more time, seriously.
Oh and she said she'd take it and he said 'just kidding
Trump called her over the weekend to ask her one more time, seriously.
Oh and she said she'd take it and he said 'just kidding
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
I'm far from a Hillary worshiper, but I'm surprised at how many consider her one of the worst candidates ever. I understand that a there is general level of distrust out there that existed well before the email issue and that she has little to none of the rapport generating talents Bill had. But those factors have little to do with her experience or the policies she has been advocating. I understand also that we tend to start with how we react to politicians on an emotional level and then work backwards to find a way to criticize or support the policies they advocate. I also understand that the GOP has been grinding relentlessly away for 25 years to tag the Clinton name with the "dishonest" label. With her, though, emotional response factor still seems surprisingly high, even among those who are usually more issue oriented.
I'm far from a Hillary worshiper, but I'm surprised at how many consider her one of the worst candidates ever. I understand that a there is general level of distrust out there that existed well before the email issue and that she has little to none of the rapport generating talents Bill had. But those factors have little to do with her experience or the policies she has been advocating. I understand also that we tend to start with how we react to politicians on an emotional level and then work backwards to find a way to criticize or support the policies they advocate. I also understand that the GOP has been grinding relentlessly away for 25 years to tag the Clinton name with the "dishonest" label. With her, though, emotional response factor still seems surprisingly high, even among those who are usually more issue oriented.
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
Its the same problem Obama had to some extent. There is a subgroup of people in this country who I'll call "old people" who don't like what either Bill Clinton, then Obama then Hillary represent, which is a changing nation.
Bill Clinton ended the Reagan era far earlier than his acolytes expected. They bitterly resented that, hence the 9,000 investigations leading up to the absurd Impeachment hearings.
Barack Obama represents the end of the US being a uniformly white country in terms of power. If you're still nostalgic for the 1950's that must have been a kick in the teeth.
Hillary represents the rise of women. Always has, but its going to get worse now. Isn't there STILL a right wing organization dedicated to keeping women in the kitchen (whatever it is that Phyllis Shaffley runs)? If she wins, that's a kick in the balls. Really, the only thing left is an openly gay President.
People don't give up their way of life easily. That's why you constantly hear "we're losing our country" or "I don't recognize the country anymore". Its code for "white males are no longer running everything". When 99.9% of your party is made up of voters over the age of 60, the campaign Donald Trump is running makes a lot more sense.
Back to Hillary though, she and her husband are also magnets for an extremely lazy press corps looking for easy stories. If you're going to report on every absurd accusation over 25 years, eventually a greater portion of the public is just going to hear the word "investigation" over and over again and think there must be something to it, even if they couldn't tell you what.
Its the same problem Obama had to some extent. There is a subgroup of people in this country who I'll call "old people" who don't like what either Bill Clinton, then Obama then Hillary represent, which is a changing nation.
Bill Clinton ended the Reagan era far earlier than his acolytes expected. They bitterly resented that, hence the 9,000 investigations leading up to the absurd Impeachment hearings.
Barack Obama represents the end of the US being a uniformly white country in terms of power. If you're still nostalgic for the 1950's that must have been a kick in the teeth.
Hillary represents the rise of women. Always has, but its going to get worse now. Isn't there STILL a right wing organization dedicated to keeping women in the kitchen (whatever it is that Phyllis Shaffley runs)? If she wins, that's a kick in the balls. Really, the only thing left is an openly gay President.
People don't give up their way of life easily. That's why you constantly hear "we're losing our country" or "I don't recognize the country anymore". Its code for "white males are no longer running everything". When 99.9% of your party is made up of voters over the age of 60, the campaign Donald Trump is running makes a lot more sense.
Back to Hillary though, she and her husband are also magnets for an extremely lazy press corps looking for easy stories. If you're going to report on every absurd accusation over 25 years, eventually a greater portion of the public is just going to hear the word "investigation" over and over again and think there must be something to it, even if they couldn't tell you what.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
She has far too much class to take it, but that would actually be his best possible choice.
She has far too much class to take it, but that would actually be his best possible choice.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
Rover's 100% right. I need a drink.
Rover's 100% right. I need a drink.
We still haven't had a Jew.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
The irony is the people who defend white privilege to their dying day never enjoyed it. The worst racists are the ones with low SES, low education, low income. The poor always get f-cked in the US, so those poor saps have spent 11 generations getting the short end and now shiny faced Ivy educated minorities are telling them to "check their privilege." That must really burn.
The irony is the people who defend white privilege to their dying day never enjoyed it. The worst racists are the ones with low SES, low education, low income. The poor always get f-cked in the US, so those poor saps have spent 11 generations getting the short end and now shiny faced Ivy educated minorities are telling them to "check their privilege." That must really burn.
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Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
The RWNJ don't mind the Jews anymore, though, because they have to rebuild the temple for You Know Who to return.
Overts we haven't had in order of probability in the next 50 years:
Woman: 90%
Latino: 90%
Jew: 40%
LGBT: 30%
Muslim: 10%
Atheist: zippo
The RWNJ don't mind the Jews anymore, though, because they have to rebuild the temple for You Know Who to return.
Overts we haven't had in order of probability in the next 50 years:
Woman: 90%
Latino: 90%
Jew: 40%
LGBT: 30%
Muslim: 10%
Atheist: zippo
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
It has always amazed me that the red core of this country can be so easily manipulated to support policies that harm them the most. You look at that map, and you could easily use the color red to indicate injury.
It has always amazed me that the red core of this country can be so easily manipulated to support policies that harm them the most. You look at that map, and you could easily use the color red to indicate injury.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
You kidding? Obama was more white that Bill Clinton could ever hope to be.
Spartanforlife4
Generic Catchy Message
I was surprised how little that came up with Bernie. Really the only time I saw it was when describing his ability to be competitive in the race ("socialist Jew is beating the 8 year presumptive nominee in xx states" type of thing).
This was probably the election for it not to matter, as the GOP couldn't use religion as a deciding factor when you consider how Trump is acting. But maybe this election is the turning point, and candidates won't have to climb over eachother to compete over who loves Jesus the most. But probably not.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was
That doesn't matter too much anymore post-Kennedy. Romney was a Mormon and that didn't cost him the Presidency either. Plus GWB and Carter were God-fearin' men who had very difficult Presidencies to say the least. People just don't participate in organized religion enough for that to be decisive anymore.
That doesn't matter too much anymore post-Kennedy. Romney was a Mormon and that didn't cost him the Presidency either. Plus GWB and Carter were God-fearin' men who had very difficult Presidencies to say the least. People just don't participate in organized religion enough for that to be decisive anymore.
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