What's new
By:
USCHO Fan Forum

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.

Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Status
Not open for further replies.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

I have a friend on Facebook who is actually an extremely smart guy. Kind of a brilliant process engineer. But he's a trump supporter.

He's been posting awful memes and stories on Facebook. The latest?

"If you haven't lost Facebook friends because you support trump, you haven't been trying hard enough."
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

It was pointed out in one of the gawker comments that if you remove the vowels from Reince Priebus' name, you get RNC PR BS.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Bern only 290 delegates behind hilly..... Getting testy out there
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Nice summary of the demographic changes of eligible voters between 2012 and 2016.

Increase (millions) by race:

3.97 Hispanic
3.22 White
1.65 Black
1.25 Asian

Factor in the 2012 partisanship, and you get the following change in eligible voters in millions:

+6.09 Democratic:
2.70 = 3.97 x .68 Hispanic
1.19 = 3.22 x .37 White
1.49 = 1.65 x .90 Black
0.71 = 1.25 x .57 Asian

+3.11 Republican:
0.91 = 3.97 x .23 Hispanic
1.74 = 3.22 x .54 White
0.08 = 1.65 x .05 Black
0.38 = 1.25 x .30 Asian

Romney lost to Obama by 4.98 million votes. In the interim, demographically the Democrats have picked up the possibility of a net gain of 2.98 million votes, just by standing still. So instead of somehow needing to make up / switch 5 million, Drumpf really needs something like 8 million, obviously with a raft of caveats concerning changes in the makeup of the electorate from the last election.

Doable, of course, but approximately 60% harder than the 2012 numbers alone suggest.
 
Last edited:
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

mookie1995 said:
Bern only 290 delegates behind hilly..... Getting testy out there
Click to expand...

ON THE COMEBACK TRAIL BABY!!!!

It would be funny if Sanders ended up with more popular votes than Trump! Right how he's about 1.5M behind with CA, NJ, and DC left to vote (9.4 vs 10.9). Hillary is crushing the field with 12.5M...
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Rover said:
ON THE COMEBACK TRAIL BABY!!!!

It would be funny if Sanders ended up with more popular votes than Trump! Right how he's about 1.5M behind with CA, NJ, and DC left to vote (9.4 vs 10.9). Hillary is crushing the field with 12.5M...
Click to expand...

It wouldn't be funny if he wound up with more than Hillary, though.

In all honesty, we don't need that.

Comparisons between parties make no sense. The GOP began with 17 candidates. Obviously their winner will wind up with fewer total votes. By expected share of the pie relative to field size, Drumpf is the one who is crushing it, unfortunately.
 
Last edited:
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Kepler said:
It wouldn't be funny if he wound up with more than Hillary, though.

In all honesty, we don't need that.

Comparisons between parties make no sense. The GOP began with 17 candidates. Obviously their winner will wind up with fewer total votes. By expected share of the pie relative to field size, Drumpf is the one who is crushing it, unfortunately.
Click to expand...

Oh its just for fun Kep and not any serious analysis. You wouldn't throw it in Trump's face if Bernie won more votes than him?

Speaking of which, THIS is the man who's supposed to be a 50/50 bet for the Presidency?

https://politicalwire.com/2016/05/11/trump-doesnt-regret-mccain-comments/

I appreciate the man's consistency, but is being consistent when mocking a POW's service really a good thing... :rollleyes:
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Rover said:
Oh its just for fun Kep and not any serious analysis. You wouldn't throw it in Trump's face if Bernie won more votes than him?

Speaking of which, THIS is the man who's supposed to be a 50/50 bet for the Presidency?

https://politicalwire.com/2016/05/11/trump-doesnt-regret-mccain-comments/

I appreciate the man's consistency, but is being consistent when mocking a POW's service really a good thing... :rollleyes:
Click to expand...

It's interesting to watch the Noise Machine aircraft carrier slowly turn 180 degrees. Freep's Cruz purge was just the beginning. Anybody with the temerity to point out that Drumpf has no stable conservative positions and indeed may have no stable positions at all, given that he changes them every day, is getting the boot from about 75% of GOP water carrier sites and is being accorded full Saint Joan martyrdom by the rest. And all of this is happening against the backdrop of the conservative literati finally figuring out that the GOP base doesn't give a crap about small government or state's rights or Jefferson's "Notes on the State of Virginia" or the Anti-Federalists or Hayek or Jekyll Island or Uncle Milty & Freshwater Economics and instead will blindly follow any hack who promises he'll keep out the Mesicans and teach the womenfolk their place. :p
 
Last edited:
Kepler said:
It's interesting to watch the Noise Machine aircraft carrier slowly turn 180 degrees. Freep's Cruz purge was just the beginning. Anybody with the temerity to point out that Drumpf has no stable conservative positions and indeed may have no stable positions at all, given that he changes them every day, is getting the boot from about 75% of GOP water carrier sites and is being accorded full Saint Joan martyrdom by the rest. And all of this is happening against the backdrop of the conservative literati finally figuring out that the GOP base doesn't give a crap about small government or state's rights or Jefferson's "Notes on the State of Virginia" or the Anti-Federalists or Hayek or Jekyll Island or Uncle Milty & Freshwater Economics and instead will blindly follow any hack who promises he'll keep out the Mesicans and teach the womenfolk their place. :p
Click to expand...

Cynical. If the masses were as you said, Jeb! would have been the nominee. However the masses have woken up to the fact that the establishment has been blowing smoke up their (our) wazoos for the past 20 years+. The masses are angry and we are where we currently are because of it.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

joecct said:
Cynical. If the masses were as you said, Jeb! would have been the nominee.
Click to expand...

Not at all. Jeb! said all the wrong things. Remember border jumping as "an act of love"? Christ on a poptart, that was NOT what the fine people of Buck Snort, Arkansas wanted to hear.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Beyond his war record, its tough to have an iota of respect for McCain anymore. Wouldn't someone who made light of your capture and 7 year ordeal during war become a blood enemy, not someone you side with due to slavish devotion to a political party? He already pulled this once by sucking up to GWB after a whispering campaign about his sanity and the paternity of his adopted daughter, so I guess we shouldn't be too surprised. :rolleyes:

Beyond that though, its amusing and sad that the political press won't call the GOP out for what it is. A 100% white privilege party. Might as well nominate PW Botha instead of Donald Trump. Maybe it wasn't always that way, but it sure as hell is now.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Kepler said:
Not at all. Jeb! said all the wrong things. Remember border jumping as "an act of love"? Christ on a poptart, that was NOT what the fine people of Buck Snort, Arkansas wanted to hear.
Click to expand...

Besides, Jeb's married to one of them. Dark, swarthy people. with funny accents. Not one of "us".
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

mookie1995 said:
Bern only 290 delegates behind hilly..... Getting testy out there
Click to expand...

Only 290...out of 900-something. So he only needs 65% of the remaining votes. Oh yeah and Hillary is leading CA with its 400-something delegates. So he only needs like 90% of the votes in every other state (that number may not be accurate, but you get my point).
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top