Campaign 2016 Part, let's say, X: There's a red moon rising On the Cuyahoga River

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part, let's say, X: There's a red moon rising On the Cuyahoga River

The only problem is that they grow up.

Well, they grow old, anyway. But while it's true that the gen pop overall gets more conservative as they age, they do so by a fairly uniform rate, so having a tidal wave of very liberal yutes means the electorate center will still move left over time, unless the succeeding generation is significantly more conservative. I'm pretty sure nobody thinks the American conservative movement, as presently configured, is going to attract younger people for quite some time.

 

[busterman62]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part, let's say, X: There's a red moon rising On the Cuyahoga River

I'm sorry if you keep imagining I'm sweating the race but I'm not.

Question Of The Day: Is Rover really DWS incognito?

Kep,
I've said multiple times here that I find it amusing that each political party misinterprets the disdain for the other candidate as a mandate for theirs. This year it appears to be occurring intra-party for both the Ds and the Rs

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part, let's say, X: There's a red moon rising On the Cuyahoga River

I've said multiple times here that I find it amusing that each political party misinterprets the disdain for the other candidate as a mandate for theirs. This year it appears to be occurring intra-party for both the Ds and the Rs

I'm pretty sure you're right. A vote for X is typically just saying, "X is dogsh-t, but Y is dogsh-t on a hot day."

It may well be that Bernie support owes more to Hillary Hated than an American Spring. But hey, a girl can dream...

 

[Jimjamesak]

The only problem is that they grow up.

The difference now is as every day goes on American conservativism is exposed more and more as sham. They aren't growing up from a college degree into the 9 to 5 job with a house in suburbia with two kids and a white picket fence. Instead they're being saddled with tens of thousands of dollars of debt, little job opportunities, and almost zero opportunity at owning a home. Meanwhile a more connected world is showing that "democratic socialism" isn't the great evil it was taught to be.

But make no mistake, the active Bernie advocates aren't just 20-something college Bernie-bros. A lot of them are late 20s, early 30s that were born under Reagan, schooled under Bush and Clinton, and came of age during W. It's a generation that's quickly learned they've gotten screwed and this country isn't all that it's cracked up to be.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part, let's say, X: There's a red moon rising On the Cuyahoga River

Honest liberalism, not the tactical rechanneling by Obama or the vacant lip service by Herr und Frau Clinton, is getting its first real hearing in 30 years, and it's very popular, particularly among those who in a generation will be the Democratic establishment. Much as Democrats have time on their side, so do liberals -- in each case their opposition is being slowly crushed by the cold equations of demography.

We will likely not win this time. That's OK. The future has a huge bias towards the young.

The only problem is that they grow up.

That's just it, Millenials who are college graduates and still in those entry-level positions love Bernie and his ideas. Those earning more than the median household wages of $50K poll much closer to the older generations.

I'd have to find the information online, but the pollster worked for one of those vilified groups around here, either Cato or Reason, but she stated a few of the poll questions, and their pro and con response rates, in the discussion she was having, and Millenials loved the idea of these various individual programs. When asked if they'd accept a higher tax rate to cover the costs of these programs, support fell to more traditional levels with respect to older generations. That was for all income groups, not just those Millenials who've been able to find professional jobs.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part, let's say, X: There's a red moon rising On the Cuyahoga River

The difference now is as every day goes on American conservativism is exposed more and more as sham. They aren't growing up from a college degree into the 9 to 5 job with a house in suburbia with two kids and a white picket fence. Instead they're being saddled with tens of thousands of dollars of debt, little job opportunities, and almost zero opportunity at owning a home. Meanwhile a more connected world is showing that "democratic socialism" isn't the great evil it was taught to be.

But make no mistake, the active Bernie advocates aren't just 20-something college Bernie-bros. A lot of them are late 20s, early 30s that were born under Reagan, schooled under Bush and Clinton, and came of age during W. It's a generation that's quickly learned they've gotten screwed and this country isn't all that it's cracked up to be.

Some of us are 50+ ex-libertarians who figured out neo-liberalism is just a shell game, and that the way back to the American Dream is through an aggressive re-assertion of consumer and worker rights. Eventually that means using the government to level the playing field between capital and labor, as was done in the 40s-50s to unleash the middle class. But right now it means regaining control of the government itself, which since the 70s has merely become the muscle the elite uses to sacrifice national interests to their personal fortunes.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part, let's say, X: There's a red moon rising On the Cuyahoga River

Some of us are 50+ ex-libertarians who figured out neo-liberalism is just a shell game, and that the way back to the American Dream is through an aggressive re-assertion of consumer and worker rights. Eventually that means using the government to level the playing field between capital and labor, as was done in the 40s-50s to unleash the middle class. But right now it means regaining control of the government itself, which since the 70s has merely become the muscle the elite uses to sacrifice national interests to their personal fortunes.

I really think you're underselling or simply not appreciative of globalization's impact on wages in countries such as ours. While the impact on our pocketbooks is going to be bad, it's going to be great for those countries traditionally listed as undeveloped or emerging markets. Once their standard of living increases to a certain point, we'll see wages grow again like those golden eras of yesteryear. Globalization's main benefit to the US, if we had a sane group of politicians leading this nation, isn't in economic boom for all, it's in its great potential to spread peace throughout the world. Interconnected foreign economies are more likely to battle using words and not bullets.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part, let's say, X: There's a red moon rising On the Cuyahoga River

Herr und Frau Clinton

Does this mean when Hillary becomes our next POTUS, we're going to have to wear donkey armbands?

 

[Spartanforlife4]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part, let's say, X: There's a red moon rising On the Cuyahoga River

Most exit polling ends in a sharp divide at the 40 year old mark. Under 30 has been around 80-20 in most states. Looking at Michigan, Missouri, and Illinois, which ended in a 1.5% win for Bernie, a tie in delgates, and a 1.8% win for Hillary, we have:

MI:
18-24: 85% Bernie
25-29: 75% Bernie
30-39: 59% Bernie
40-49: 55% Hillary
50-64: 57% Hillary
65 +: 69% Hillary

MO:
18-24: 78% Bernie
25-29: 78% Bernie
30-39: 70% Bernie
40-49: 55% Hillary
50-64: 60% Hillary
65 +: 69% Hillary

IL:
18-24: 88% Bernie
25-29: 82% Bernie
30-39: 62% Bernie
40-49: 55% Hillary
50-64: 60% Hillary
65 +: 70% Hillary

There is also the educational divide. Those with high school or less tend to go to Hillary around 60-65%. Those with any college, finished or not, fall between 50-55 for Bernie. Those with postgrads go back to Hillary between 50-60.

 

[joecct]

Does this mean when Hillary becomes our next POTUS, we're going to have to wear donkey armbands?

Nein, Mein Herr. But since the armed forces wear the German infantry helmet, it stands to reason that our field grade officers have to wear the spiked helmet.

And white male Christians will have to wear an identifying symbol (white cross) on their coats while on college campuses to protect the others from their dangerous attitudes and behaviors.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part, let's say, X: There's a red moon rising On the Cuyahoga River

I really think you're underselling or simply not appreciative of globalization's impact on wages in countries such as ours. While the impact on our pocketbooks is going to be bad, it's going to be great for those countries traditionally listed as undeveloped or emerging markets. Once their standard of living increases to a certain point, we'll see wages grow again like those golden eras of yesteryear. Globalization's main benefit to the US, if we had a sane group of politicians leading this nation, isn't in economic boom for all, it's in its great potential to spread peace throughout the world. Interconnected foreign economies are more likely to battle using words and not bullets.

The problem is that's not what's been happening, though. Globalization paired with egalitarian policies would shelter the first world working class from third world working class competition. But we didn't do that, so it just became a way to gut environmental and labor standards in rich countries to the lowest global standard, with all the benefit going to the investor class. This helped the middle class indirectly through share price of their holdings, but that was offset by the dislocation in the home country from throwing all those blue collar workers out on the street.

The equivalent would have been to say, "OK, we're going to globalize but we're going to hold all investors to a hard maximum of 10% ROI. All the rest of the profit goes to raising the health care, shelter, and education of the poorest third of the population in every country. Corruption by government officials or corporate executives gets the death penalty. Oh, and whenever two labor or environmental standards collide, the higher one wins."

 

[St. Clown]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part, let's say, X: There's a red moon rising On the Cuyahoga River

The problem is that's not what's been happening, though. Globalization paired with egalitarian policies would shelter the first world working class from third world working class competition. But we didn't do that, so it just became a way to gut environmental and labor standards in rich countries to the lowest global standard, with all the benefit going to the investor class. This helped the middle class indirectly through share price of their holdings, but that was offset by the dislocation in the home country from throwing all those blue collar workers out on the street.

The equivalent would have been to say, "OK, we're going to globalize but we're going to hold all investors to a hard maximum of 10% ROI. All the rest of the profit goes to raising the health care, shelter, and education of the poorest third of the population in every country. Corruption by government officials or corporate executives gets the death penalty."

You'll get no argument from me that corporations are going about a great many things with the wrong approach in this country when it comes to managing their highly skilled labor. The problem is to figure out how to induce them into raising wages rather than retaining profits so as to reward those who helped make those profits possible. And it has to be done in a way that's politically palpable.

Working for a publicly traded company in the Fortune 500, I see that we're having record setting profits - that's been the story for the past two or three years now. Those record profits are not turning into increased wages because, and I don't know how many of my coworkers have put two-and-two together on this, investors have said that our expense ratio is too high compared to our competition; that same competition that we've been stomping for the past seven years. So our board cut costs where costs are easiest to cut in a non-retail environment - they slowed our wage growth and found ways to automate a certain amount of work that has led to, at least in my area, employee reduction through attrition rather than direct layoffs. Oh, and our profit sharing payout percentages have dropped year over year despite our continued success, in addition to reduced wage growth. They're brewing up a mean cauldron of trouble, if they'd only pay attention to the plebes. In short order, they'll see themselves undoing all those great gains we've made over the past decade.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part, let's say, X: There's a red moon rising On the Cuyahoga River

You'll get no argument from me that corporations are going about a great many things with the wrong approach in this country when it comes to managing their highly skilled labor. The problem is to figure out how to induce them into raising wages rather than retaining profits so as to reward those who helped make those profits possible. And it has to be done in a way that's politically palpable.

Working for a publicly traded company in the Fortune 500, I see that we're having record setting profits - that's been the story for the past two or three years now. Those record profits are not turning into increased wages because, and I don't know how many of my coworkers have put two-and-two together on this, investors have said that our expense ratio is too high compared to our competition; that same competition that we've been stomping for the past seven years. So our board cut costs where costs are easiest to cut in a non-retail environment - they slowed our wage growth and found ways to automate a certain amount of work that has led to, at least in my area, employee reduction through attrition rather than direct layoffs. Oh, and our profit sharing payout percentages have dropped year over year despite our continued success, in addition to reduced wage growth. They're brewing up a mean cauldron of trouble, if they'd only pay attention to the plebes. In short order, they'll see themselves undoing all those great gains we've made over the past decade.

This is a fantastic post. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part, let's say, X: There's a red moon rising On the Cuyahoga River

Classy of Kep to insinuate Nazi references to his Dem opponents.

Anyway, I was once 20 years old, and like most 20 year olds I thought 1) the world revolved around me and my generation, and 2) I knew everything about everything. Then I graduated and got a job. That's when you first learn that maybe you need more seasoning before they make you CEO! Then I bought a house. Hadn't thought much about do it yourself plumbing before, or watching long term rates come down so you can refinance. Then I had kids, and that REALLY brought home that I didn't know everything. By that time, a campaign based on free tuition and free weed has a lot less appeal.

Bernie Sanders despite being 125 years old is speaking to the narcissism of the young. Snap your fingers and everything will be exactly how I say it will be as soon as he's elected. Its absurd. However, I can understand why 20 year olds are attracted to him. For 50 year olds? That's a stretch. Worse yet about Sanders is the purity test. You're either 100% with him or you're a sell out. I love his line about anybody who set up a Super Pac disqualified themselves from being President. I guess then in Bernie's sainted opinion Obama should resign now? I'm sure he'd find a bunch of Republicans who'd agree with him, but that's just the point. Bernie at this stage is carrying the water for the GOP.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part, let's say, X: There's a red moon rising On the Cuyahoga River

Classy of Kep to insinuate Nazi references to his Dem opponents.

Anyway, I was once 20 years old, and like most 20 year olds I thought 1) the world revolved around me and my generation, and 2) I knew everything about everything. Then I graduated and got a job. That's when you first learn that maybe you need more seasoning before they make you CEO! Then I bought a house. Hadn't thought much about do it yourself plumbing before, or watching long term rates come down so you can refinance. Then I had kids, and that REALLY brought home that I didn't know everything. By that time, a campaign based on free tuition and free weed has a lot less appeal.

Bernie Sanders despite being 125 years old is speaking to the narcissism of the young. Snap your fingers and everything will be exactly how I say it will be as soon as he's elected. Its absurd. However, I can understand why 20 year olds are attracted to him. For 50 year olds? That's a stretch. Worse yet about Sanders is the purity test. You're either 100% with him or you're a sell out. I love his line about anybody who set up a Super Pac disqualified themselves from being President. I guess then in Bernie's sainted opinion Obama should resign now? I'm sure he'd find a bunch of Republicans who'd agree with him, but that's just the point. Bernie at this stage is carrying the water for the GOP.

Nearly every word of this is laughable. Suffice to say that you don't know what you're talking about, you continually create strawmen as the only possible way for you to carry a point, and you have simply ignored each time you've been corrected on your many misconceptions. I assumed at first that you just didn't know better, but unfortunately there seems no other conclusion that you're following the Clinton Campaign Plan, which is to deflect, deny, and distort.

To defeat the orcs we need both moderates and liberals to work together. You've shown absolutely no inclination to do so, but luckily you're nothing. Hopefully Hillary's actual team is more circumspect than some of her more silly followers.

 

[Spartanforlife4]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part, let's say, X: There's a red moon rising On the Cuyahoga River

A campaign based on lowering college tuition rates doesn't make sense for someone with children?

 

[Jimjamesak]

Classy of Kep to insinuate Nazi references to his Dem opponents.

Anyway, I was once 20 years old, and like most 20 year olds I thought 1) the world revolved around me and my generation, and 2) I knew everything about everything. Then I graduated and got a job. That's when you first learn that maybe you need more seasoning before they make you CEO! Then I bought a house. Hadn't thought much about do it yourself plumbing before, or watching long term rates come down so you can refinance. Then I had kids, and that REALLY brought home that I didn't know everything. By that time, a campaign based on free tuition and free weed has a lot less appeal.

Bernie Sanders despite being 125 years old is speaking to the narcissism of the young. Snap your fingers and everything will be exactly how I say it will be as soon as he's elected. Its absurd. However, I can understand why 20 year olds are attracted to him. For 50 year olds? That's a stretch. Worse yet about Sanders is the purity test. You're either 100% with him or you're a sell out. I love his line about anybody who set up a Super Pac disqualified themselves from being President. I guess then in Bernie's sainted opinion Obama should resign now? I'm sure he'd find a bunch of Republicans who'd agree with him, but that's just the point. Bernie at this stage is carrying the water for the GOP.

I'll repeat it again: It's not 20 year olds that are the support base for Sanders. It's people in their late 20s, early 30s. A lot of them are married, some even have kids. These aren't "20 year-olds who think the world revolves around them." They're 30 year-olds who've seen their friends scarred by wars (or even themselves), stuck with a mountain of debt, and now see a bleak existence of being a wage slave. They're frustrated with the way country is run and a connected world has shown them democratic socialism actually works.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Nearly every word of this is laughable. Suffice to say that you don't know what you're talking about, you continually create strawmen as the only possible way for you to carry a point, and you have simply ignored each time you've been corrected on your many misconceptions. I assumed at first that you just didn't know better, but unfortunately there seems no other conclusion that you're following the Clinton Campaign Plan, which is to deflect, deny, and distort.

To defeat the orcs we need both moderates and liberals to work together. You've shown absolutely no inclination to do so, but luckily you're nothing. Hopefully Hillary's actual team is more circumspect than some of her more silly followers.

It's easier to deal with them if you just paint them as college Bernie-bros who only want free college and free weed instead of actual people.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part, let's say, X: There's a red moon rising On the Cuyahoga River

A campaign based on lowering college tuition rates doesn't make sense for someone with children?

Rover is channeling Red State, where everything to his left is pot and naivete. It's done every day on the Echo Chamber, and it is quite telling that he immediately falls into that patter when backed into a corner.

Clinton is losing on the merits in the marketplace of ideas; you can tell even she knows it because she's moving left, albeit perhaps merely for show. We'll see what she actually does in office. On Domestic non-fiscal policy she may actually be fine. Just don't expect her to do anything about inequality and corporate greed while she's in office, because that is simply not her inclination.

In the end, on a -10 to +10 scale of acceptability she's a solid +2 or +3, and the two leading orcs are -7 or -8. We have a three party system now, with Hillary and the DLC controlling a centrist party. The predations of the GOP are so lethal that pretty much anything is justified in keeping them away from power, so in the general we'll vote for her. I suspect neither she nor, to judge from here, her supporters care how as long as she wins, so they'll be happy. The creeps and cretins on the right will have been pushed back for another few years so we'll be happy. As for the future and demographics, well, we'll see won't we? Without significant change the mass of people getting madder and matter at the elites will only grow, so Hillary may actually finally be forced to do something positive by her prime directive: self preservation. Maybe it will be like TEH GAYZ and she'll "evolve."

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part, let's say, X: There's a red moon rising On the Cuyahoga River

It's easier to deal with them if you just paint them as college Bernie-bros who only want free college and free weed instead of actual people.

Hey, it worked for Nixon.