Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Minnesota elected TPaw...state elections are different than than the general you know that Sancho.

I do. And I think he has a shot at the GOP nod and obviously quite a few donors do as well. And as soon as your nominated in this country the bet is about 50/50. And given Hillary's screw ups like I said anybody nominated by the GOP has a shot at the title.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Of the four GOP options currently on the table, Cruz is the only one who could give HRC a legitimate scare. Walker and Jebbers are stuck with the double whammy of being boring AND having baggage, and I suspect there's enough yet-to-be-revealed craziness about Paul that he'll be dropping out by New Hampshire.

I agree. You can't embarrass Cruz with a charge of radicalism because its one he'll embrace. Presumably there's no skeletons in his closet aside from his Canadian birth and citizenship which suddenly will be no problem amongst the Birther set who've raged against Hawaiian born Obama for years now.

Cruz also benefits from the fact that there's no room to his right for anybody to occupy. His problem in the general election is that if the economy continues to improve Americans might not want to do the extreme shift that he represents vs a somewhat moderate Hillary Clinton. I also wonder how, if income inequality is on people's minds, his prescription of tax cuts for the 1% and eliminating federal entitlement programs plays out.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Cruz also benefits from the fact that there's no room to his right for anybody to occupy. His problem in the general election is that if the economy continues to improve Americans might not want to do the extreme shift that he represents vs a somewhat moderate Hillary Clinton. I also wonder how, if income inequality is on people's minds, his prescription of tax cuts for the 1% and eliminating federal entitlement programs plays out.

I am certain Cruz has plenty of dirty laundry that will destroy him. He gives every impression of being a clinical narcissist, and they leave a trail of slime, if not bodies. He's going to say and/or do at least a half dozen things during the campaign that will alienate portions of the GOP base. He makes Dick Cheney look affable. And none of this is even counting the jack-in-the-box insanity of his father-pastor-mentor. His smugness is more face-punch-worthy than Dubya's, his self-confident swagger is more irritating than Bubba's, his intellectual conceit is more grating than Obama's. He even looks like a villain from Central Casting.

The only case in which I can imagine a landslide would be Cruz winning the nomination. He would win about 10 states.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

So, who's going to win it then? Bush? I seriously doubt the GOP is going to go Bush. It would be conceding just like Romney and McCain were. They want someone new, fresh, and exciting. Walker.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

So, who's going to win it then? Bush? I seriously doubt the GOP is going to go Bush. It would be conceding just like Romney and McCain were. They want someone new, fresh, and exciting. Walker.

Jeb's going to win the nomination. Jeb v Hillary is 50/50.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Jeb's going to win the nomination. Jeb v Hillary is 50/50.

Well, ok, I disagree. I'll take the field.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Well, ok, I disagree. I'll take the field.

I was going to say that's unfair and not what I said (plurality, not majority) but I'd actually probably take Dubya over the field for the nomination. Ordinarily that would be risky, but I think Jeb has both the establishment and the Neocons, and that's enough when the libertarians are unrepresented and the Theocons won't need that much arm-twisting to support The Smart One.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

I was going to say that's unfair and not what I said (plurality, not majority) but I'd actually probably take Dubya over the field for the nomination. Ordinarily that would be risky, but I think Jeb has both the establishment and the Neocons, and that's enough when the libertarians are unrepresented and the Theocons won't need that much arm-twisting to support The Smart One.

I don't think he has the two things you think he does. Also, if they do nominate him it eliminates a possible tactic against Hillary.

Like I said, for the GOP nod I'll take the field over Jeb.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

So, who's going to win it then? Bush? I seriously doubt the GOP is going to go Bush. It would be conceding just like Romney and McCain were. They want someone new, fresh, and exciting. Walker.

Dark horse, Marco Rubio.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

I don't think he has the two things you think he does. Also, if they do nominate him it eliminates a possible tactic against Hillary.

Like I said, for the GOP nod I'll take the field over Jeb.

He certainly has the Neocons. He's a charter signator of PNAC.

I think he has the guys in the smoke-filled room, too. The GOP is smart about only one thing: they pick the guy who gives them the best chance. Who do you think the establishment is going to get behind?

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Well, ok, I disagree. I'll take the field.

Me too. Jeb vs Hillary is like 40/60. As you correctly state, he replicates the 200 or so electoral votes McCain/Romney got and not much else. Give him a little more if he nails down Florida (not a given since he hasn't run there since 2002 I believe) but he still needs to bag Ohio, Virginia and Colorado to win the election. He's got little appeal in any of these places and he needs to win them all to get the bare minimum electoral votes. What does he run on - a return to the GWB era?

Where I differ though is Walker vs Cruz. They're basically the same candidates ideology wise, but I think Cruz will prove better at defending his ideas (Harvard grad vs McDonald's U dropout) as well locking up evangelicals. If he can run the table down South on Super Tuesday, I don't see how he can be denied the nomination based on Jeb Bush (or Walker's) strength in California or New York, states that they may win in the primaries but not in the general election.

 

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

He certainly has the Neocons. He's a charter signator of PNAC.

I think he has the guys in the smoke-filled room, too. The GOP is smart about only one thing: they pick the guy who gives them the best chance. Who do you think the establishment is going to get behind?

They've already got behind Jeb. The rest of the primary is just for show (follow the money)
Jeb sent his supporters a letter a few weeks ago that essentially said, "Hold off a little bit on some of this endless tsunami of cash money... the regular people will get suspicious that it's rigged lolol."

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Me too. Jeb vs Hillary is like 40/60. As you correctly state, he replicates the 200 or so electoral votes McCain/Romney got and not much else. Give him a little more if he nails down Florida (not a given since he hasn't run there since 2002 I believe) but he still needs to bag Ohio, Virginia and Colorado to win the election. He's got little appeal in any of these places and he needs to win them all to get the bare minimum electoral votes. What does he run on - a return to the GWB era?

Where I differ though is Walker vs Cruz. They're basically the same candidates ideology wise, but I think Cruz will prove better at defending his ideas (Harvard grad vs McDonald's U dropout) as well locking up evangelicals. If he can run the table down South on Super Tuesday, I don't see how he can be denied the nomination based on Jeb Bush (or Walker's) strength in California or New York, states that they may win in the primaries but not in the general election.

I don't think they're the same. Walker is much more nefarious than Cruz. If people vote for Cruz they'll know exactly what they're getting and will get exactly what they deserve. If people vote for Walker it will be a mirror image of the Bush administration.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

If he can run the table down South on Super Tuesday

It looks like Super Tuesday (if it's 3/1) doesn't really exist anymore.

Assume Cruz is a lock for TX (which may not be warranted, but we can agree that if he isn't a lock in TX he's dead) and OK. VA and NC are purple states with relatively educated populations (even the Republicans) so those probably go to Jeb. Can't see MA or VT going to the snake biter dude, so those are also Jeb. CO -- who knows? The next week Cruz has got 2 of 4 in Lynchingland, but then OH and MI, which sure seem to be Walker's wheelhouse. The week after that is FL and the Jeb-Rubio Thunderdome.

That schedule seems almost deliberately designed to keep breaking regional momentum and throwing the delegate race back up in the air.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

At this point in time during their respective election cycles, both Gov. Bill Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama were trailing the pack with nobody paying them any heed. Predicting the winner now is like predicting the 2017 Super Bowl winner.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

At this point in time during their respective election cycles, both Gov. Bill Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama were trailing the pack with nobody paying them any heed. Predicting the winner now is like predicting the 2017 Super Bowl winner.

I feel pretty good about picking the field over Bush on the GOP side. I also feel pretty good picking Hillary on the other side. After that, it's anybody's guess.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

At this point in time during their respective election cycles, both Gov. Bill Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama were trailing the pack with nobody paying them any heed. Predicting the winner now is like predicting the 2017 Super Bowl winner.

That's actually not a bad analogy, because while the 2017 SB winner will have some big changes between now and then, it's already at least half built, and likewise although the formal campaigns have just started or might not even be declared yet, the contenders have been lining up dollars, interviewing campaign staff, focus testing talking points, cultivating friendly media contacts, for 6 months. This election cycle started 11/5/14. It's already 23% over.

We know Bernie Sanders (New York Jets) and Bobby Jindal (Tampa Bay Bucs) aren't going to the Super Bowl.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

That's actually not a bad analogy, because while the 2017 SB winner will have some big changes between now and then, it's already at least half built, and likewise although the formal campaigns have just started or might not even be declared yet, the contenders have been lining up dollars, interviewing campaign staff, focus testing talking points, cultivating friendly media contacts, for 6 months. This election cycle started 11/5/14.

We know Bernie Sanders (New York Jets) and Bobby Jindal (Tampa Bay Bucs) aren't going to the Super Bowl.

Bernie will help Hillary. Bobby is going to cause some folks some problems on the other side.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Bernie will help Hillary. Bobby is going to cause some folks some problems on the other side.

Bernie will help Hillary. Bobby will, I think, just be another embarrassing clown car footnote, like Herman Cain or Donald Trump.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Bernie will help Hillary. Bobby will, I think, just be another embarrassing clown car footnote, like Herman Cain or Donald Trump.

What Bobby will do is keep gay marriage a part of the campaign. He'll want to Gin up his stance against it for votes.