Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Yeah, that's the same thing I said about W. Look what happened.

Dubya has the full faith and credit of the GOP establishment, the Bush fundraising machine, Texas oil money, and for all we know Saudi oil money. If you thought Dubya had no chance you were basing it on his stupidity and that was a mistake -- have you met your neighbors? Walker isn't doomed because he's stupid, he'd doomed because everything he has to run on is duplicated by Jeb, who has the benefit of all of the above.

Jeb is every bit as dangerous as Dubya was. Moreso, since he would inherit a surveillance state and he's of average intelligence, which makes him a genius compares to his brother.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

North Carolina had promise. But since the last couple of elections they've devolved back to a Kentucky.

I'd like to know what happened there? I have no doubt with all the educated people streaming into RTP that NC will eventually be blue, but why the detour back to Dumbfckistan?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Not a lot to do with Hillary but I think GOP race baiting in the Obama era drove down his 2012 #'s amongst working class rural whites. Most realistic Dem nominees would be able to improve upon his #'s in these areas.

Having said that, these people aren't the future for the Dems anyway. I'd expect the Dems to elect a Senator from Georgia sooner than another one from West Virginia or Kentucky. Dems thrive in places where the population is college educated and successful. That's why they've made North Carolina a swing state and Virginia a blue state, two places that hadn't voted Dem since 1976. Forget about Appalachia or the inland deep south and keep up the pressure on the East Coast for states where the economy doesn't revolve around Wal-Mart. Winning Virginia is big - Dem states now stretch from Maine to VA. Go after NC again as well as GA and you'd have an unbroken line from Canada to the Gulf with the exception of South Carolina.

Eventually, as the Reagan era taught us, if you keep winning a state on a Presidential level the rest of it will come around. It took awhile for the South to turn red on a state level, but if you liked what Ronbo was selling, eventually you'll vote for the Gov-Sen-state rep-dogcatcher ticket that believes in the same thing.

Wow. I agree with this 100%. One of us needs to check his meds.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Go after NC again as well as GA and you'd have an unbroken line from Canada to the Gulf with the exception of South Carolina.

It's still unbroken: NC borders GA in the west.

I'm not sure GA is realistic for a while, if ever. Here's my theory -- if GA is in play, the election is already over. Therefore, as GA moves towards purple the GOP will have to move back towards the center (and/or the liberal wing of the Dems will be able to move the party from the center towards the left).

We're in a weird period in which the American public has been moving left on both social and economic issues, while the Democrats have been staying in the center and the GOP has been moving even farther into the radical right. That combination of trends can't continue. Either the Democrats will move left or split off a genuine left party and/or the Republicans will move left and/or split off a center-right party. The only other possibility is the Democrats keep winning presidential elections by greater and greater margins -- something that has no precedent since the destruction of the Federalists. That won't happen -- too much smart money rides on Republicans pushing their economic policies to tolerate a protracted absence from the White House.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Wow. I agree with this 100%. One of us needs to check his meds.

While I also agree. I don't think the next step is moving GA or even NC to a swing state. GA is in the long term range of swinging AZ or TX. But the answer is making FL consistently blue. Excepting the fact that its not going to happen this presidential election.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

North Carolina is gone. Forget about it.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpoli...ld-north-carolina-lead-a-red-state-resurgence

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

While I also agree. I don't think the next step is moving GA or even NC to a swing state. GA is in the long term range of swinging AZ or TX. But the answer is making FL consistently blue. Excepting the fact that its not going to happen this presidential election.

Making FL consistently blue cements the Dem EV advantage under the current configuration, so I agree that is the short term strategy. I think the long term strategy is "don't screw up the west." If the GOP somehow became as rock ribbed in CO/NM/AZ/NV as they are in their other strongholds, then the Dems have a problem. If the Dems can keep CO, NM and NV purple, their current advantage persists until something big happens demographically down the line.

Interestingly, NC (15) has more EV than CO (9) and NM (5) combined. I'd not have thought that. At the moment, all the trending looks good for the Dems; but as Karl Rove learned, that can change really quickly.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

North Carolina is gone. Forget about it.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpoli...ld-north-carolina-lead-a-red-state-resurgence

That doesn't say NC's gone. It says NC is about to become KS. We'll see what the voters do then.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

While I also agree. I don't think the next step is moving GA or even NC to a swing state. GA is in the long term range of swinging AZ or TX. But the answer is making FL consistently blue. Excepting the fact that its not going to happen this presidential election.

A good point. There's two ways of looking at this:

1) Dems have enough of a cushion that if they just hold most of the Clinton/Obama states, and nominating another Clinton might help in that regard, that they need not stretch themselves by going after anything new. So, who cares about Georgia or North Carolina?

2) Following the Howard Dean strategy, you need to relentlessly add states to your column as that helps in down ballot races. So yes, the Dem state party in Florida must be a clown show if they have like one statewide elected official despite winning the state in 3 out of the last 6 Presidential elections. Having said that, I'd go after North Carolina first and foremost at the same time as trying to secure FL in an effort to turn it into another Virginia. You have several college towns and a young professional class in the research triangle as well as Charlotte's financial industry to work with, much like VA came back to Dems as the DC suburbs filled out.

To that end Georgia has the Atlanta metro area that could be ripe for Dems, as well as the reliable black & Hispanic vote. Obama came closer to winning GA than Mittens did to winning MI, even though Michigan is always called a swing state. I don't expect the GOP to start winning there, but there are some states currently in the Dem column that could start to drift sooner (Wisconsin I suppose, perhaps Iowa).

Dems like to sit on their duffs in good times, and then wonder what happened when a W gets elected. WVA, etc aren't coming back, but I'd like to see an effort to replace them with even bigger prizes.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Making FL consistently blue cements the Dem EV advantage under the current configuration, so I agree that is the short term strategy. I think the long term strategy is "don't screw up the west." If the GOP somehow became as rock ribbed in CO/NM/AZ/NV as they are in their other strongholds, then the Dems have a problem. If the Dems can keep CO, NM and NV purple, their current advantage persists until something big happens demographically down the line.

Yup, that's pretty much the deal. I wouldn't try to secure the Midwest long term. Its shrinking...and its not demographically changing. Don't get me wrong, the midwest is still most likely to determine upcoming elections...but they are not the right states to try to permanently flip.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Dems like to sit on their duffs in good times, and then wonder what happened when a W gets elected. WVA, etc aren't coming back, but I'd like to see an effort to replace them with even bigger prizes.

I'd add LA as another state that's going the wrong way. I remember when it used to be considered purple, or at least "battleground because LA is cray-cray," but now it's just MS with better food.

Dean was right: you keep building everywhere, if for no other reason because of House and state leg races. The GOP learned this and pours money into state and local. They own school boards and state houses, and they push all the herpa-derp red meat to keep their base angry and involved. The Dems at best react against this and argue, "don't let these creatures overwhelm you," but in politics the best defense is always a good offense, and with the exception of some identity issues the Dems haven't been able to get that messaging right. Women's rights and immigration reform are the natural positive messages for the Dems to trumpet; a Hillary + Hispanic ticket would sure help with that.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

A funny blurb I read after the 2014 mid-terms. "Americans voted for legalized weed, gay rights, minimum wage hikes....and a GOP congress".

The GOP does a better job of tying isses to candidates, ie "vote for me and I'll ban abortion even if I paid my mistress to get one".

Dems get much less traction out of advocating for minimum wage hikes for example, although they're getting a little better at that. If I had to venture an opinion as to why this happens, I think conservative voters like to hear a message more than they expect to see results. Abortion has been legal for 40 years and while there's some movement around the fringes its legality or support for Roe v Wade hasn't changed much.

Dem voters seem to be willing to go around their lawmakers by either enacting laws themselves (referendums on minimum wage hikes and weed for example) or waiting for the courts to do it for them (gay marriage for the most part). I'd also speculate this is why turnout is up in Prez years but down in off years. The battle becomes control of the WH, and hence the court nominations. A Dem Senate helps, and the Dems had held the Senate for 8 years straight while holding the house for only 4 years.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

I'd also speculate this is why turnout is up in Prez years but down in off years. The battle becomes control of the WH, and hence the court nominations. A Dem Senate helps, and the Dems had held the Senate for 8 years straight while holding the house for only 4 years.

Dem turnout drops in midterm elections because GOP lofo voters are far better networked and organized through their NRA and fundamentalist Christian peer groups. Those shared affiliations are strongly social and keep up a constant drumbeat that their liberties are imperiled and they must vote or the blacks will come take their guns and Bibles. Democratic lofo voters have no comparable political/social group pushing them to the polls. The closest they come is black churches or campus organizations, but those are nothing compared to the multi-million dollar budgets of the gun or fundy lobby.

I'm not even sure what a liberal social/political group comparable to the NRA would look like. Liberals don't really act that way; they are more atomized and less communal, maybe because they're younger and more urban and diverse. It's not like the Unitarians are going to start swinging off-year elections.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Rubio opens his mouth; cue the RINO comments. http://dailycaller.com/2015/04/18/i...lieves-obamas-executive-amnesty-is-important/

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Rubio opens his mouth; cue the RINO comments. http://dailycaller.com/2015/04/18/i...lieves-obamas-executive-amnesty-is-important/

Way too pragmatic for the base!

But seriously, there are a few issues I'm curious as to how the GOP candidates finesses in order to not disqualify themselves in the general election. Deport Everybody = Primary Winner. Deport Everybody = General Election Loser. Rubio's position sounds reasonable - don't rescind exec order until something permanent is in place. Not sure the base is going to cut him some slack however.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Dem turnout drops in midterm elections because GOP lofo voters are far better networked and organized through their NRA and fundamentalist Christian peer groups. Those shared affiliations are strongly social and keep up a constant drumbeat that their liberties are imperiled and they must vote or the blacks will come take their guns and Bibles. Democratic lofo voters have no comparable political/social group pushing them to the polls. The closest they come is black churches or campus organizations, but those are nothing compared to the multi-million dollar budgets of the gun or fundy lobby.

I'm not even sure what a liberal social/political group comparable to the NRA would look like. Liberals don't really act that way; they are more atomized and less communal, maybe because they're younger and more urban and diverse. It's not like the Unitarians are going to start swinging off-year elections.

Education. Republicans love to cut education budgets to the bone. On the local level, that's where you need to start rallying the troops.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Education. Republicans love to cut education budgets to the bone. On the local level, that's where you need to start rallying the troops.

Makes sense. If you don't believe workers and women need an education, you don't believe in science, and you think history is communist and liberal arts is gay, that really cuts school budgets down to home ec for girl poors, metal shop for boy poors, museum curatorship for rich women and finance for rich men.

Bible studies for everybody, natch. But only the approved kind where you ignore everything after 1517.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

That doesn't say NC's gone. It says NC is about to become KS. We'll see what the voters do then.

Kansas reelected Brownback. I rest my case. Wisconsin reelected Walker, TWICE. You may as well give in to the fact that the Lindsey Graham, Bone Man, and Itch's of the World are always going to have so much power in this country that there's no steering the truck out of the way of the speeding train.

It'll take another 50 years before North Carolina figures out that they've destroyed themselves.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Well, liberal arts is definitely gay...but there's nothing wrong with that.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Makes sense. If you don't believe workers and women need an education, you don't believe in science, and you think history is communist and liberal arts is gay, that really cuts school budgets down to home ec for girl poors, metal shop for boy poors, museum curatorship for rich women and finance for rich men.

Bible studies for everybody, natch. But only the approved kind where you ignore everything after 1517.

Education just needs to be the Democrat equivalent of abortion . Some red meat, or I guess a gluten-free bread in this case, to wave in front of the base to get it riled up.