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Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

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Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

What's going to hurt Bernie the most is that even if he is able to get wins in Ohio and Illinois, three of the four biggest states left in the primary have closed elections, which means he cant' get his huge boost from independents. The worst is in New York, where you still have time to register as a new voter, but if you're already registered, you had to have changed affiliation by October 9 of last year.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

Spartanforlife4 said:
The worst is in New York, where you still have time to register as a new voter, but if you're already registered, you had to have changed affiliation by October 9 of last year.
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That's interesting. You'd think the deadlines would be the same.

I'm curious to see how Hillary reacts. In the debate she seemed to be trying to cut down the distance between them on liberal issues, which is all I want out of this process. She could also choose to pivot now and start haranguing Bernie Rover-style about how liberalism is ipso facto unelectable, essentially anticipating the GOP's attacks on her in the general. I don't think she will fall into that obvious trap -- one thing the Machine is not is dumb.

She needs to stop giving off the vibe that the nomination process is a chore and that We Are Not Amused by the voters' insistence that she work a little harder. Hillary unfortunately reeks of entitlement, and she has to find ways of countering that. The milk and cookies grandma shtick will work with some people so OK, fine. She does have one very good thing going for her, which is that she never has to feign strength. Everybody, even the people who manically hate her, concede she's the strongest person to come along the conveyor belt since TR was biting Filipino heads off like a circus geek.

Bernie's job is to keep the pressure up on her and be there in case an indictment comes down.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

Her campaign, or better yet her spokespeople overreact a little too much. Bernie's going to win his states on occasion. Let him. Its okay. Obama could very well have lost more states in the modern era than anybody who ever actually won the nomination. Didn't seem to bother him too much. :D Sanders critical mistake was not contesting the South in general and Texas in particular. If he has the strength he claims amongst Hispanics, why did he allow himself to get crushed 2:1 in the biggest delegate prize thus far? He also made his first trip to FL this week as well, perhaps the 3rd biggest haul. If he's not running a 50 state strategy, and she is, losing by 20K votes in MI isn't that big of a problem. No reason to go scorched earth on the guy even if he gets a bit ridiculous sometimes. ;)

EDIT: I'm not sure why some people think NY is a slam dunk for Bernie. If any place won't buy into Evil Wall St you would think it'd be there (as well as NJ and maybe CT). Plus, she did represent the state for 8 years in the Senate.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

Rover said:
Her campaign, or better yet her spokespeople overreact a little too much. Bernie's going to win his states on occasion. Let him. Its okay. Obama could very well have lost more states in the modern era than anybody who ever actually won the nomination. Didn't seem to bother him too much. :D Sanders critical mistake was not contesting the South in general and Texas in particular. If he has the strength he claims amongst Hispanics, why did he allow himself to get crushed 2:1 in the biggest delegate prize thus far? He also made his first trip to FL this week as well, perhaps the 3rd biggest haul. If he's not running a 50 state strategy, and she is, losing by 20K votes in MI isn't that big of a problem. No reason to go scorched earth on the guy even if he gets a bit ridiculous sometimes. ;)

EDIT: I'm not sure why some people think NY is a slam dunk for Bernie. If any place won't buy into Evil Wall St you would think it'd be there (as well as NJ and maybe CT). Plus, she did represent the state for 8 years in the Senate.
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I don't know anyone from NY who doesn't regard Hillary as a carpetbagger. That includes the people who voted for her, assuming that it would be good for the state to have somebody obviously angling for the White House. Also you have to remember that New Yorkers hate Wall Street people more than anybody else, because they have to live with them. ;)

Bernie couldn't waste resources on the South where neither he nor the Dems would be competitive. His whole gambit is to edge out Hillary in states where the Democrats can actually win. That demonstrates to the DNC and the supers that he will have better numbers in the general. Hillary can win MS 100-0 and that still gets the Democratic party zero EV in November.

The price of course is Hillary keeps rolling up those "ghost" delegates, but I don't think anybody including Bernie went into this assuming that Hillary would blow it again without some lethal externality like an indictment. There's a reason nobody else (sorry, Martin) ran against her.

As it stands if she can keep clear of the bracelets she's fine. It's incumbent upon her and her team to say liberal enough things that when we have to choke down our Hillary quinine in the fall it won't be too bad. I can't speak for people 35 years younger than I but I believe Bernie will actually get a lot of kids into the pipeline one cycle earlier than usual. We're talking about college kids who care about inequality -- they were always going to be Democratic, it was just a question of whether their first votes would be at age 18 or 22 or 26. Bernie accelerates the process, and that's good. As we drive younger the GOP drives older, and that's trending that all Dems should support. :)
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

Kepler said:
Bernie couldn't waste resources on the South where neither he nor the Dems would be competitive. His whole gambit is to edge out Hillary in states where the Democrats can actually win. That demonstrates to the DNC and the supers that he will have better numbers in the general. Hillary can win MS 100-0 and that still gets the Democratic party zero EV in November.
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This makes no sense but its put forth a lot by Bernie bots. He didn't compete much if at all in Virginia, which is a pretty critical firewall state. He's made one appearance in Florida, another key state. Not sure if he's spent time in NC, but that was a narrow win and narrow loss for Obama in his two races.

Beyond that, places like Georgia were closer in the GE than places like Michigan even tough we always hear one is a swing state and one isn't. Its a bit condescending out of Sanders people to completely blow off half the country when a 50 state strategy is what we need. Even if you don't win Texas, there are like a dozen or more Dem Congresscritters there who could use a maximum turnout in the election. Sometimes Kep, its not just all about Bernie. :D
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

Rover said:
This makes no sense but its put forth a lot by Bernie bots. He didn't compete much if at all in Virginia, which is a pretty critical firewall state. He's made one appearance in Florida, another key state. Not sure if he's spent time in NC, but that was a narrow win and narrow loss for Obama in his two races.

Beyond that, places like Georgia were closer in the GE than places like Michigan even tough we always hear one is a swing state and one isn't. Its a bit condescending out of Sanders people to completely blow off half the country when a 50 state strategy is what we need. Even if you don't win Texas, there are like a dozen or more Dem Congresscritters there who could use a maximum turnout in the election. Sometimes Kep, its not just all about Bernie. :D
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I don't think a Clinton supporter should talk about party outreach. Those two do nothing for the Dem field unless it is directly self-serving.

It makes perfect sense not to throw dollars into MS or UT or other GOP hell holes. I will give you FL, of course, as we need to win there, and good god Bernie if there was ever a state with a ton of old Jews just like you... :)

GA is a want, not a need. If we're close in GA we've already won the election. NC the same. VA is on the cusp, though every year just brings more college educated people into the state for NoVa tech and government jobs, while rafts of grumpy old white retirees ship out to the Redneck Riviera. I am hopeful it will go blue for keeps pretty soon.

MI, OH and PA are key, and if Bernie is beating Hillary there that should give the puppetmasters in Philly pause.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

Kepler said:
I don't think a Clinton supporter should talk about party outreach. Those two do nothing for the Dem field unless it is directly self-serving.

It makes perfect sense not to throw dollars into MS or UT or other GOP hell holes. I will give you FL, of course, as we need to win there, and good god Bernie if there was ever a state with a ton of old Jews just like you... :)

GA is a want, not a need. If we're close in GA we've already won the election. NC the same. VA is on the cusp, though every year just brings more college educated people into the state for NoVa tech and government jobs, while rafts of grumpy old white retirees ship out to the Redneck Riviera. I am hopeful it will go blue for keeps pretty soon.

MI, OH and PA are key, and if Bernie is beating Hillary there that should give the puppetmasters in Philly pause.
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I'm sorry but no. MI, OH, and PA are not more critical than FL or VA. They're all states voting Dem in Presidential races. Concentrating on the first three and putting the next two on the back burner is the John Kerry/Bob Shrum Presidential strategy. We need to go after them all with an equal robust effort.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

Rover said:
I'm sorry but no. MI, OH, and PA are not more critical than FL or VA. They're all states voting Dem in Presidential races. Concentrating on the first three and putting the next two on the back burner is the John Kerry/Bob Shrum Presidential strategy. We need to go after them all with an equal robust effort.
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Expected Value called. It said: FL, yes; VA no.

This is probably even more worrisome to the GOP than the influx of higher educated voters into purple states.

Pew Research Center projects that four million more Hispanics will be voting in 2016 than in 2012.
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Hispanics broke for Obama by more than 2:1. Drumpf's favorability numbers with Hispanics are insanely bad. From that influx of 4 million votes Hillary will easily net 1.5M and could net as high as 3M. To put that in perspective, Obama won in 2012 by 5M.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

Don't like the idea of completely blowing off swing states in the primaries and then expecting them to come around in the general election. Compete in the primaries and you have a campaign infrastructure already set up. You're already in the state and meeting people well before November. In the frenzy of the general election its a bit tougher to make up the time you should have spent there. FL-VA-NC are approx. 60 electoral votes. GOP really can't afford to lose any of them. Worth some time to spend there in Feb-March. Sanders doesn't lack for money, so I'm not sure I get the strategy.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

There is no joy in Nutbarville.

Back before the 2008 election, Gary Cass and his Christian Anti-Defamation Commission released a series of videos explaining "why Barack Obama is not a Christian."

Today, Cass sent out an email seeking donations to fund another series of videos, this time explaining why Donald Trump is not a Christian
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Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.

Rover said:
Let him do his thing while you concentrate on your ground game to turn people out (IMHO they got a little complacent in MI reading the polls leading up to the contest).
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IMO, this is exactly what happened. Hillary supporters saw the polls where she was up by 20 points, and no-showed.
 
Kepler said:
In Miami they call that a "Marlins sellout."

BTW, York's suggestion that Drumpf send bottled water to Flint is brilliant. He can donate millions of bottles of water from his company, get tremendously good press, and cut the legs out from the racism charge. The dude is a billionaire -- he could do it all for maybe $25M and get a far better ROI than if he spent that on ads.
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Tax deduction.
 
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