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Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools?

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Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
This is the Liberal Paradox that goes all the way back to (at least) 1848: the people we want to help the most won't vote for us.
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This is not a mystery; see exhibit A:

5mn_Major said:
Blacks don't get the nuance of and don't connect with Sanders. They typically vote connection or as a back up, establishment. Frankly, I'm betting the same from the Hispanics. I'd be totally shocked if that changes.
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The same patronizing gibberish is also often felt by those "stupid southern rednecks" that "don't know what's good for them."
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

There's some truth to it, though. Low information voters tend to vote based on identity. Economically (and hence educationally) disadvantaged groups tend to produce higher percentages of low information voters. Therefore, economically (and hence educationally) disadvantaged groups tend to produce higher percentages of voters who tend to vote based on identity.

But as you chain more and more probabilistic statements together, the overall correlation drops off precipitously.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Yeah, the whole "minorities are stupid or low info voters which is why they're not backing Sanders" is a little low rent. My guess is they see Hillary as an extension of Bill Clinton, or a partner of him, and are hoping they'll get the same dedication out of her. In the meantime, though no fault of his Sanders represents about the whitest state in the union. In that contest who they support makes a lot more sense than just basing it on disinterest + familiarity with a known name.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Rover said:
Yeah, the whole "minorities are stupid or low info voters which is why they're not backing Sanders" is a little low rent. My guess is they see Hillary as an extension of Bill Clinton, or a partner of him, and are hoping they'll get the same dedication out of her. In the meantime, though no fault of his Sanders represents about the whitest state in the union. In that contest who they support makes a lot more sense than just basing it on disinterest + familiarity with a known name.
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Kep has a point, IMO the above is a good assessment of the situation.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

5mn_Major said:
Not surprising. Sanders has a potentially good platform. But Sanders has not been 'surging' because of his platform, but rather Clinton questions.
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I don't agree with this. The type of voter who supports Hillary isn't going to turn to Bernie, she/he/ze/whatever is going to go Undecided and wait for the next mainstream candidate, because that voter either is a centrist or still has PTSD from Reagan and is afraid to run on a liberal platform. The latter malady is dying off along with the rest of the Reagan electorate and punditocracy, and it will have all but vanished by 2020. In the meantime, Bernie's task was to remind people what a real Democrat sounds like, so that the next round of pols who can remember to brush their hair will have a solid liberal platform to confidently run on.

Imagine if Paul Wellstone had lived, and was running right now in place of Bernie with exactly the same message and fire. Those would be interesting times.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
I don't agree with this. The type of voter who supports Hillary isn't going to turn to Bernie, she/he/ze/whatever is going to go Undecided and wait for the next mainstream candidate, because that voter either is a centrist or still has PTSD from Reagan and is afraid to run on a liberal platform. The latter malady is dying off along with the rest of the Reagan electorate and punditocracy, and it will have all but vanished by 2020. In the meantime, Bernie's task was to remind people what a real Democrat sounds like, so that the next round of pols who can remember to brush their hair will have a solid liberal platform to confidently run on.

Imagine if Paul Wellstone had lived, and was running right now in place of Bernie with exactly the same message and fire. Those would be interesting times.
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I'm not sure that Bernie is quite Wellstone.

So is it your belief that Clinton's position 3 months ago as dominant and unblemished vs. the one today that struggles to get past her email issues is not worth 20% in the polls? I would imagine it is...and for the average voter, Bernie does appear to be the only alternative. I think Bernie has a lot of merit, but not sure that his platform is the reason for the shift in the polls when Clinton has the appearance today of struggle and scandal.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

5mn_Major said:
I'm not sure that Bernie is quite Wellstone.

So is it your belief that Clinton's position 3 months ago as dominant and unblemished vs. the one today that struggles to get past her email issues is not worth 20% in the polls? I would imagine it is...and for the average voter, Bernie does appear to be the only alternative. I think Bernie has a lot of merit, but not sure that his platform is the reason for the shift in the polls when Clinton has the appearance today of struggle and scandal.
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My point is that Bernie's probably not picking up many Clinton supporters. She's losing them because she looks as crooked as a bag of fish hooks. The people he's gaining, however, are coming because his message resonates. He's pulling people from undecided and she's loading people into undecided. But I think 538 is correct that even if the undecided pile stays the same size eventually Bernie will run out of people to pull from it, because all the ones who are left will be Clinton refugees and they're not going to Bernie.

The obvious solution is for another major Dem to enter the race, but who's to choose from? Biden, Gore, and Kerry immediately come to mind, but Gore and Kerry haven't gotten any more charismatic and Biden has paradoxically shrunk during his VP years, and he doesn't help with Obama fatigue. The Dems' problems in the Senate and governors' mansions in the '90s and '00s are biting them now in how short their bench is. Who's left outside that circle? Webb is going nowhere and is far too conservative; Bayh is also too conservative; O'Malley went nowhere despite being rather well placed; Cuomo would make Hillary look like Elizabeth Warren. We got nuthin' so we just better learn to live with the Old Broad and hope we can drag her carcass across the finish line. And, Praise Jebus, start working on the bench!
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
My point is that Bernie's probably not picking up many Clinton supporters.
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Possibly. But as you alluded to, would Sanders have picked up the same number if Biden was in the race? That's more telling of Bernie's policies.

Other candidates? Its too late. Its Biden or Hillary (still assuming Sanders can't put the numbers together).
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

What happens if Hill falls?

Joe jumps in as savior?
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

dude!!!

Pocahontas :D
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

5mn_Major said:
Blacks don't get the nuance of and don't connect with Sanders.
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You're right that they don't connect with Sanders, but it's because they understand his message, not because they don't. Bernie is the type of the guy that if he saw your house was on fire, he'd start talking about how we need to build a new fire station instead of going to get a bucket of water. The pie-in-the-sky 20 years down the road stuff doesn't really resonate when there are serious problems people are dealing with today.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

MaizeRage said:
You're right that they don't connect with Sanders, but it's because they understand his message, not because they don't. Bernie is the type of the guy that if he saw your house was on fire, he'd start talking about how we need to build a new fire station instead of going to get a bucket of water. The pie-in-the-sky 20 years down the road stuff doesn't really resonate when there are serious problems people are dealing with today.
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Yeah, because dealing with root causes is never a good idea. :rolleyes:
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

The ideal two-person race would be between Trump and Kim Kardashian. Kindred spirits in the battle for attention.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

burd said:
The ideal two-person race would be between Trump and Kim Kardashian. Kindred spirits in the battle for attention.
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running mates! "Trump/Rump 2016"
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

geezer said:
running mates! "Trump/Rump 2016"
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You could balance the budget on her rump!
Her office would be nicknamed the "Rumpus Room"
A summit meeting could be a hair raising adventure.
Would KK play her trump card to get legislation passed?

I'll be here all week. Try the veal.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

MaizeRage said:
You're right that they don't connect with Sanders, but it's because they understand his message, not because they don't. Bernie is the type of the guy that if he saw your house was on fire, he'd start talking about how we need to build a new fire station instead of going to get a bucket of water. The pie-in-the-sky 20 years down the road stuff doesn't really resonate when there are serious problems people are dealing with today.
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That, and he has the charisma of a 3 week old piece of bread. It's like looking at and listening to Ben Stein's character in Ferris Bueller. He has literally zero chance of getting elected POTUS.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

SJHovey said:
That, and he has the charisma of a 3 week old piece of bread. It's like looking at and listening to Ben Stein's character in Ferris Bueller.
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This is completely wrong. Even conservatives admit that after listening to Sanders they come away with appreciation, if not agreement, of his points. He doesn't have the razzle-dazzle charimsa of a Jesse Jackson, but he has the assured charisma of someone who believes through and through in his ideas and is able to explain them simply and decisively. And on top of that he remains likeable even when telling you stuff you may not agree with. You may remember another guy who was able to do that.
 
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