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Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools?

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Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Rover said:
I definitely feel oppressed. I think a few extra tax breaks might improve my mood though. ;)

Yes yes I know polls are of somewhat limited value, but when do non-crazy people on the right start worrying that the nutter caucus (Trump, Carson, Cruz, Huckleberry, etc) are pulling over 50% in every poll I've seen so far? Doesn't bode well for the so called Republican Jesus caucus that the media keep telling us are going to win (Jebbers! Walker, Rubio).

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32...1087/6f102b2c-508f-4bc3-8cd9-6f650f4bcc3a.pdf
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It is shocking how inert Yeb! is. It's like he's staging a hunger strike at the family Thanksgiving. "OK, you can make me run, but you can't make me try."

Walker's proven himself to be so incompetent that at this point it ought by all rights to be Rubio's to lose.

I refuse to entertain the possibility that Trump can buffoon his way to the nomination.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
It is shocking how inert Yeb! is. It's like he's staging a hunger strike at the family Thanksgiving. "OK, you can make me run, but you can't make me try."

Walker's proven himself to be so incompetent that at this point it ought by all rights to be Rubio's to lose.

I refuse to entertain the possibility that Trump can buffoon his way to the nomination.
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Some nutter will be the nominee though. Marco Rubio is a media invention. A "white guilt" candidate for reporters that feel the need to fluff him up despite anything the man has actually done. He's been a non-entity in debates, on the campaign trail, and with any specific proposals. Okay, he's a Cuban Republican. Great. That means we should elect him because....why?
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Rover said:
Some nutter will be the nominee though. Marco Rubio is a media invention. A "white guilt" candidate for reporters that feel the need to fluff him up despite anything the man has actually done. He's been a non-entity in debates, on the campaign trail, and with any specific proposals. Okay, he's a Cuban Republican. Great. That means we should elect him because....why?
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What would you put the odds of someone from {Trump, Carson, Huckabee, Cruz} being nominated? IMO those are the nutters. I put it at less than 25%, with my rational side screaming it's less than 10%. I just don't buy it -- the GOP is a Fortune 500 company and they aren't going to name Sideshow Bob as CEO.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
I refuse to entertain the possibility that Trump can buffoon his way to the nomination.
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Jeb is still in the mix. Don't see Rubio. Chances were long from the beginning as a young Latino in a party of white boomers. And even worse for him, I think Trump has temporarily moved the right side of the party further away from the reality of Hispanic GOP leadership.

Entertain. It ain't over, but Trump has been overly resilient to date in the face of pretty extreme stuff. Not sure what has the potential to knock him out of the nomination...not sure if money alone can do it.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
What would you put the odds of someone from {Trump, Carson, Huckabee, Cruz} being nominated? IMO those are the nutters. I put it at less than 25%, with my rational side screaming it's less than 10%. I just don't buy it -- the GOP is a Fortune 500 company and they aren't going to name Sideshow Bob as CEO.
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Ted Cruz! Here me out....

He's the ideological heir to Trump's voters. He's going to get gold plated coverage from the right wing media when he tries to shut down the gubmint over funding Planned Parenthood. Media has to leave him alone when he as a Hispanic calls for all Hispanics to be deported. Gives him cover. Plus, the fawning coverage over "Look, the GOP CAN support a minority candidate!" begins about 5 minutes after his poll #'s rise. Lastly, provided Trump comes back to Earth a little, he should clean up in SEC primary.

Jeb Bush is at the point where he appeals to exactly nobody. Koch brothers can back Walker who doesn't have last name baggage. Nutters can go to Cruz. Moderates and those concerned about best general election candidate can back Kasich. Bomb Iran loons can choose any one of the 17 except for Rand Paul.

I understand the Last Man Standing strategy (or my Royal Rumble analogy from 2012) but unfortunately for Jebbers! he's not playing the role of Andre the Giant like Mittens did. He's more like Ted DiBiase (aka The Million Dollar Man). Yeah he looks formidable when he's getting help from people outside the ring, but when he gets into a 1 on 1 with a larger opponent he gets his arse kicked (in this case that would be Trump).
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Don't think Cruz. Its the connection factor. Young Hispanic Cruz does not connect with his party (outside of Texas, FL and Cali). He, Rubio and Carson will always have their supporters, but IMO they can't get the other 50%. And again, IMO Trump has this cycle made him 'unfashionable'.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Rover said:
Ted Cruz! Here me out....

He's the ideological heir to Trump's voters. He's going to get gold plated coverage from the right wing media when he tries to shut down the gubmint over funding Planned Parenthood. Media has to leave him alone when he as a Hispanic calls for all Hispanics to be deported. Gives him cover. Plus, the fawning coverage over "Look, the GOP CAN support a minority candidate!" begins about 5 minutes after his poll #'s rise. Lastly, provided Trump comes back to Earth a little, he should clean up in SEC primary.
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I think the guy best positioned for the SEC primary is actually Huckleberry. He says the dumbest things on religion and I'm not sure those people care about anything else.

The media can attack Cruz all they want on Hispanic issues. He's Cuban, the Québécois of the Hispanic community -- everybody else hates them. The GOP doesn't understand this because all they see is If (White) Then Else. But a generic Cuban might do even worse than a generic Anglo among the rest of Hispanics -- it's like asking the other Asians what they think of the Han.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

This looks like a fun campaign to watch. Anybody from Minny care to comment?

On Thursday, GOP Rep. John Kline announced that he would not seek re-election to his swingy suburban Twin Cities seat. Obama narrowly won Minnesota's 2nd District 49.1 to 49.0, but Kline has always pulled off decisive victories here ever since he was first elected in 2002. This is exactly the type of seat that Democrats need to capture if they want any chance at returning to the majority, and the fight for district is going to get a lot more interesting now that Kline is departing.
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I don't believe for a second that the Dems have a chance of recapturing the House until 2020, but every extra seat helps.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Huckleberry's problem is that he's yesterday's news (kinda like Jebbers!). He had his chance. You can get the same craziness with Cruz, but also a guy actually having an effect in Washington (shutting down govt, calling out the Itch and Boner show, etc). Huckleberry hasn't been in office for years and has little ability to drive the conversation.

Again, this is all predicated on Trump coming back down to Earth. If Trump stays sky high and people come around to the idea of him actually being the nominee, Cruz takes it in the shorts (as well as Carson, etc). There's no room for him in that regard. My take on both the Dem and GOP races is that a lot of people who will end up voting in the primaries haven't engaged yet (meaning they're not 'likely voters'" so low name recognition candidates have inflated support. Trump need not introduce himself to these people once they take an active interest. Cruz and to some extend Rand Paul can make headlines from the Senate. The rest of them are going to struggle for air unless something unexpected breaks their way.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
Sure you can. I mean.. they have.
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Well, sure Hillary did what she did. So technically you're correct, it can be made, as she did so. I stand corrected.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Rover said:
Huckleberry's problem is that he's yesterday's news (kinda like Jebbers!). He had his chance. You can get the same craziness with Cruz, but also a guy actually having an effect in Washington (shutting down govt, calling out the Itch and Boner show, etc). Huckleberry hasn't been in office for years and has little ability to drive the conversation.

Again, this is all predicated on Trump coming back down to Earth. If Trump stays sky high and people come around to the idea of him actually being the nominee, Cruz takes it in the shorts (as well as Carson, etc). There's no room for him in that regard. My take on both the Dem and GOP races is that a lot of people who will end up voting in the primaries haven't engaged yet (meaning they're not 'likely voters'" so low name recognition candidates have inflated support. Trump need not introduce himself to these people once they take an active interest. Cruz and to some extend Rand Paul can make headlines from the Senate. The rest of them are going to struggle for air unless something unexpected breaks their way.
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Yeah, hard to argue with any of that. A couple interesting things from that Monmouth poll. Carson's unfavorables are 6%. Jesus Christ would probably get 5% unfavorables ("he's vaguely Arab-looking"). And Trump's support among women is 15 points lower than among men. The other thing is Trump's unfavorables among GOP voters are evaporating, from 55% earlier this year to about 25% now. That defies all campaign CW and should maybe freak the RNC out. The old rule was if you ever get above 50% unfavorable you can't win. This is the biggest test of that adage I've ever seen.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Bob Gray said:
Well, sure Hillary did what she did. So technically you're correct, it can be made, as she did so. I stand corrected.
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I meant the circus, as you know. That's entertainment.

In the end, Republicans are going to be 99% unfavorable against Hillary instead of 95% unfavorable. I fail to see how this will change any actual votes.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
Yeah, hard to argue with any of that. A couple interesting things from that Monmouth poll. Carson's unfavorables are 6%. Jesus Christ would probably get 5% unfavorables ("he's vaguely Arab-looking"). And Trump's support among women is 15 points lower than among men. The other thing is Trump's unfavorables among GOP voters are evaporating, from 55% earlier this year to about 25% now. That defies all campaign CW and should maybe freak the RNC out. The old rule was if you ever get above 50% unfavorable you can't win. This is the biggest test of that adage I've ever seen.
Click to expand...

Trump (and to some extent Bernie) are protest votes by the little guy/gal feeling the system is rigged against them and maybe one or the other can rebalance the playing field. I think both are in for a Monty Python 16 tons moment, but it's fun to watch now and the suits are doing frequent underwear changing.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

I hope Bernie's support isn't protest, I hope it's content-driven. It is for me, anyway.

And vice-versa for Trump. I don't want to believe that a third of all Republicans are willing to go home with the most loudmouthed racist in the bar at closing time because he's the most loudmouthed racist.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
I meant the circus, as you know. That's entertainment.

In the end, Republicans are going to be 99% unfavorable against Hillary instead of 95% unfavorable. I fail to see how this will change any actual votes.
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Sure Republicans will be overwhelmingly against her regardless. That's always been the case. But I think this kind of stuff hurts her with independents and I believe there's been polling to that effect. Any candidate that has someone associated with them and a problematic situation of theirs pleading the 5th has no good optics to it.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Bob Gray said:
Sure Republicans will be overwhelmingly against her regardless. That's always been the case. But I think this kind of stuff hurts her with independents and I believe there's been polling to that effect. Any candidate that has someone associated with them and a problematic situation of theirs pleading the 5th has no good optics to it.
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I agree with you about the optics. People associate taking the 5th with the courtroom scene in Godfather II.

I kind of agree with you about Independents, except I don't believe there are any Independents. Twenty years ago I believed elections were about ignoring the thirds on the each side and winning the third in the middle. I don't believe there is a middle anymore, I think there are people who are every bit as aligned with the Dems or the GOP but who are so sickened by politics that they want to call themselves Independent and thus open-minded. But they aren't -- we've all become tribal and completely predictable. So Hillary's unfavorables among fake-independent-Republicans are going up, while fake-independent-Democrats are filing their nails as they're dragging the lake.

It eventually resolves to a 2-horse race, and at that point no matter how much you disdain your own guy the other side's guy is going to be ten times worse, and so the election result is close to predictable even this far out. The variance is very, very small, and as Rover has documented many times everything has to go the GOP's way to change the actual outcome.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
I agree with you about the optics. People associate taking the 5th with the courtroom scene in Godfather II.

I kind of agree with you about Independents, except I don't believe there are any Independents. Twenty years ago I believed elections were about ignoring the thirds on the each side and winning the third in the middle. I don't believe there is a middle anymore, I think there are people who are every bit as aligned with the Dems or the GOP but who are so sickened by politics that they want to call themselves Independent and thus open-minded. But they aren't -- we've all become tribal and completely predictable. So Hillary's unfavorables among fake-independent-Republicans are going up, while fake-independent-Democrats are filing their nails as they're dragging the lake.
Click to expand...

My vote is up for grabs, probably depending on whether the GOP nominee more resembles Trump or Kasich in social conscience.
 
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