Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools?

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

It's still 5 months until the primaries. The #'s could reverse themselves.

That wont be easy. Her personality is so off putting she cant do it that way and since all of her policy beliefs and values are known she wont sway people that way either. She isnt human enough and is bought and paid for by Wall Street and the world knows it. People didnt trust her before the faux scandal so why should they now?

I am not one to usually say this but if she was a he the media would be focusing more on Bernie and Biden because she is struggling. The Dems would be shifting as well. Since she is a woman (and a Clinton) they both pump everything into her while Bernie gets ignored but keeps adding support. (especially with young voters)

The Dems are still going to win, but if she wants the job she needs to shake things up. A minor shift to the left wont do it she needs to show people why she should be president, not act like she already has the job and we all owe her reverence. She needs Bill to show her how to wow a crowd into loving you...

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

she needs to show people why she should be president, not act like she already has the job and we all owe her reverence. She needs Bill to show her how to wow a crowd into loving you...

I doubt Bill could show her. He popped out of the womb that way.

Hillary is tremendously off-putting. The good news is Nixon, who was even worse, won 2 terms because the opposition was in disarray. It's possible.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

We live in a different world...and face fact no candidate wants to be Nixon.

 

[joecct]

We live in a different world...and face fact no candidate wants to be Nixon.

"Only Nixon could go to China"
- old Vulcan proverb

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

I doubt Bill could show her. He popped out of the womb that way.

Hillary is tremendously off-putting. The good news is Nixon, who was even worse, won 2 terms because the opposition was in disarray. It's possible.

I really wouldn't hitch my wagon to Quinnipiac polls as again, they have Pataki at 10% in Florida and Ben Carson as the most popular politician in terms of net favorability in the country. It is funny though that the alleged most unpopular people (Trump, Clinton) are the ones leading their races?

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

How soon you forget you were saying the same thing in 2008 when Hillary could nail the sure thing...

I have been up for an hour and I have already seen that a former MI-6 agent hacked Bill Clinton and Scott Walker is open to building a wall at the Canadian border...this is going to be a good week I think!

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

How soon you forget you were saying the same thing in 2008 when Hillary could nail the sure thing...

I have been up for an hour and I have already seen that a former MI-6 agent hacked Bill Clinton and Scott Walker is open to building a wall at the Canadian border...this is going to be a good week I think!

Forget about Hillary Clinton. The polls on the GOP side are absurd. They also had Rand Paul tied for 2nd somewhere. The only place Rand Paul is tied for second is maybe Kentucky and even there I'm not sure. They also have polls where the public is against the Iranian deal like 70% to 30%. That makes no sense. Sometimes, even if a poll tells you what you want to hear (Trump is blowing away the field, Sanders on the rise, etc) you have to take a look at the rest of it. I can't take a poll seriously that has George Pataki 10X to 20X higher than his national polling in a key state or Rand Paul in 2nd place anywhere.

 

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

It is funny though that the alleged most unpopular people (Trump, Clinton) are the ones leading their races?

I don't doubt it. The "unfavorable opinion" rating is just a measure of name recognition. For politicians as divisive as these two crazies, they could be heading for a landslide win with 49% viewing them unfavorably (and 70% in a primary). Whereas the average person has never heard of Ben Carson, so nobody has an unfavorable opinion.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

GOP polling is worthless because there are too many candidates. When it gets to single digits going for the nomination then you can analyze the numbers. The Dems dont have that issue so watching Hillary's numbers go down actually has value. I know you dont want to admit it because you are her Monica Lewinsky but her trends are terrible and she does herself no favors.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

GOP polling is worthless because there are too many candidates. When it gets to single digits going for the nomination then you can analyze the numbers. The Dems dont have that issue so watching Hillary's numbers go down actually has value. I know you dont want to admit it because you are her Monica Lewinsky but her trends are terrible and she does herself no favors.

I'm yawning more than anything else! Its fun to watch nervous nellies go crazy however.

 

[joecct]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

I'm yawning more than anything else! Its fun to watch nervous nellies go crazy however.

It's waaayyyy too early to get excited, but when is it too late for Joe?

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

It's waaayyyy too early to get excited, but when is it too late for Joe?

A rare good point being brought up by pundits is that he needs to start raising money soon (like, yesterday) in order to compete because he has to travel via Air Force 2 as a sitting VP, but if he's going to his own campaign events he has to pay for a lot of that out of campaign funds? I don't know the man, but if I had to speculate it seems he's having trouble shutting the door once and for all on one last Presidential campaign and riding off into the sunset, which one can totally respect.

Meantime, this is pretty amusing:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/donald-trump-2016-setting-gop-agenda-213088

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

A rare good point being brought up by pundits is that he needs to start raising money soon (like, yesterday) in order to compete because he has to travel via Air Force 2 as a sitting VP, but if he's going to his own campaign events he has to pay for a lot of that out of campaign funds? I don't know the man, but if I had to speculate it seems he's having trouble shutting the door once and for all on one last Presidential campaign and riding off into the sunset, which one can totally respect.

Meantime, this is pretty amusing:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/donald-trump-2016-setting-gop-agenda-213088

This is a good line:

After all, how else can one explain Bush’s latest effort to show he is not an establishment loser by going flaunting an endorsement from Eric Cantor, the most notorious establishment loser in history?

 

[joecct]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

This is a good line:

A while back I mentioned that Jeb had to run as a Bush and run against a Bush (43). I think he has no shot, just because GWB is a third rail right now.

If I was Donald, I'd stay away from campaigning at shopping malls.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

A while back I mentioned that Jeb had to run as a Bush and run against a Bush (43). I think he has no shot, just because GWB is a third rail right now.

If I was Donald, I'd stay away from campaigning at shopping malls.

Sam Prescott and Prescott Sheldon had the yarbles for Second Amendment Remedies, but the family has gone to seed. Thurston Howell may have run the CIA but he outsourced the scary stuff, and Jeb is just that little fourth generation trickle that hangs like spit off the low branches of the family tree. There are no stone killers among them anymore. Even the ones in the Chimperor's administration were émigrés.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

A while back I mentioned that Jeb had to run as a Bush and run against a Bush (43). I think he has no shot, just because GWB is a third rail right now.

If you like what he's selling, you have far better alternatives without the baggage of the worst Presidency in memory. Walker. Kasich. Even Krispy Creme Christie. All governors who will cut taxes on the 1% and pay for it by borrowing money. Put Christie aside for a minute and consider Jebbers!-Walker-Kasich. Who do you back? Really, just flip a coin but the problem is if someone doesn't consolidate that wing of the party behind themselves quick, they're going to get run over. Jebbers! needs to start spending his dough and quickly. There's more where that came from, but it does no good to have a pile of campaign funds sitting around while you're finishing out of the money in the early primary states.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

If you like what he's selling, you have far better alternatives without the baggage of the worst Presidency in memory. Walker. Kasich. Even Krispy Creme Christie. All governors who will cut taxes on the 1% and pay for it by borrowing money. Put Christie aside for a minute and consider Jebbers!-Walker-Kasich. Who do you back? Really, just flip a coin but the problem is if someone doesn't consolidate that wing of the party behind themselves quick, they're going to get run over. Jebbers! needs to start spending his dough and quickly. There's more where that came from, but it does no good to have a pile of campaign funds sitting around while you're finishing out of the money in the early primary states.

One thing about Jeb though is if he really wants it (and it sure looks like he doesn't), he doesn't have to win it the first time around. Perry and Huckleberry showed that it's possible to be a one hit wonder; Walker and Cruz have to take note and go all in. But Jeb, although it's not optimal, could pull a Romney and follow the Five Year Plan to the nomination. Given that Hillary will probably make a hash of a first term, he might be in a better position to be a knight in shining armor in 2020 -- with Dubya 4 years farther in the rear view mirror, and Hillary herself presenting a target of opportunity through a lousy first act.

It's also impossible to overstate the amount of energy the right will have if the Dems hold the WH through another term. That means re-upping a successor to Ginsburg, which would set the 2020 election up as the campaign to tip the Court on the strength of replacing Kennedy and Scalia.

BIRTH APPOINT TURN 80 POL NAME APPOINTER
1933 1998 2013 D GINSBURG CLINTON
1936 1986 2016 R SCALIA REAGAN
1936 1988 2016 R KENNEDY REAGAN
1938 1994 2018 D BREYER CLINTON
1948 1991 2028 R THOMAS BUSH
1950 2006 2030 R ALITO DUBYA
1954 2009 2034 D SOTOMAYOR OBAMA
1955 2005 2035 R ROBERTS DUBYA
1960 2010 2040 D KAGAN OBAMA

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

One thing about Jeb though is if he really wants it (and it sure looks like he doesn't), he doesn't have to win it the first time around. Perry and Huckleberry showed that it's possible to be a one hit wonder; Walker and Cruz have to take note and go all in. But Jeb, although it's not optimal, could pull a Romney and follow the Five Year Plan to the nomination. Given that Hillary will probably make a hash of a first term, he might be in a better position to be a knight in shining armor in 2020 -- with Dubya 4 years farther in the rear view mirror, and Hillary herself presenting a target of opportunity through a lousy first act.

I agree with this. If he bows out now and runs in 2020 that will be 12 years post Dubya there will be no way to hang a bad economy or wars on him. Plus Hillary will give him plenty of fodder to play with AND many of the Clown Show wont run again.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

So, Walker wants to talk about a wall on the Canadian border as well?

Could this guy be running a dumber campaign? All he had to do was keep his head down. He's now excused from any consideration whatsoever. He's in the Jindal group with just a larger percentage of morons willing to say yes on a poll.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

So, Walker wants to talk about a wall on the Canadian border as well?

Could this guy be running a dumber campaign? All he had to do was keep his head down. He's now excused from any consideration whatsoever. He's in the Jindal group with just a larger percentage of morons willing to say yes on a poll.

To pull off the "Crazy Moonbat" type campaign you have to be engaging. Walker is as boring as...well the state of Wisconsin if you are sober