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Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools?

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Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Trump increased his lead by 2 in the Fox News poll. The last one was taken the week before the debate.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Trump increased his lead by 2 in the Fox News poll. The last one was taken the week before the debate.

Full results here.

Some highlights:

.49 Clinton
.30 Sanders
.10 Biden

.25 Trump
.12 Carson
.10 Cruz
.09 Bush

.47 Clinton
.40 Fiorina

.47 Clinton
.42 Trump

.44 Clinton
.46 Rubio

.42 Clinton
.44 Bush

If Trump ran as an independent:

.42 Clinton
.25 Trump
.24 unnamed Republican
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Trump, Carson, and Cruz are in the GOP lead. Hillary is dropping like a stone.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Those Carson voters are going to gravitate towards Trump (or Cruz). In a fractured primary with a bunch of other people vying to be Republican Jesus (Jebbers! Kasich, Rubio) a hard core True Believer (or a guy pretending to be like Trump) can win a state with 25% of the vote. Also IIRC most GOP contests are winner take all unlike the Dems who allocate by congressional district I believe. All Trump all the way baby!

PS - Anybody think a poll showing Rubio at 46% nationally ahead of every other GOP contender in a general election match up is maybe a little skewed his way? :eek: The guy has done zilch thus far to pull ahead of anybody. Methinks Marco has been spending time on Murdoch's yacht, probably driving it, in order to get a result like this. :D
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Also IIRC most GOP contests are winner take all unlike the Dems who allocate by congressional district I believe.

The GOP put out a new set of rules in 2014. They include the following:

The first states to hold primaries, as usual, will be Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Voters in those states will go to the polls in February under the party rules passed in 2014. States that attempt to jump ahead of those four states will be punished with the loss of delegates.

States that hold their primaries between March 1 and March 14, 2016, will award their delegates on a proportional basis, meaning that no one candidate could likely win the nomination before late-voting states get to hold their primaries.

States voting on March 15, 2016, or later will award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis, meaning candidates will likely pay more attention to them.

Here is the complete schedule.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

But almost half a year (176 days) until the NH primary.

Its going to come quicker than that...

Post Labor Day Congress finally decides to reconvene for their one month a year of productivity, and that's going to be chock full of fiscal cliffs and debt default deadlines. This will last until Oct-Nov and who benefits from that? 1) Trump, who will call all of Congress idiots and have near unanimous agreement out of the voting public as the spectacle rages on, and 2) Cruz, who will be the one causing the shutdown.

That crowds out Jebbers! who some people hilariously thought benefited from Trump's rise ( :confused:) even though he's now in 4th place, but also Media Flavor Of the Month Kasich, Walker, and all other governors who have nothing to do with it, as well as Senate lightweights Paul, Graham and Rubio who will have to light themselves on fire to get any attention during all of this.

Once we get to November, now the Iowa caucus is only 12 weeks away and nobody is paying attention from Thanksgiving to Christmas. As Trump is going to benefit from Congressional dysfunction there's not a lot of time to knock him off his perch as the clear #1 and its going to cost precious money since nobody draws free coverage like The Donald.

Walker absolutely has to win Iowa or there's no reason for his candidacy. He sure as hell isn't winning the SEC primary. Bush has to win in New Hampshire with its taxphobic but live and let live on social issues base. If he can't do that then he's useless as a candidate (same with Kasich who needs a strong showing). These are the very people who will get crowded out of the conversation come winter time.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

But almost half a year (176 days) until the NH primary.

Sure. Cain and Bachmann were in the lead the last time around at this time. They eventually pussied out and went establishment instead of true believer. Better pick a true believer this time. I want a real debate.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Its going to come quicker than that...

Post Labor Day Congress finally decides to reconvene for their one month a year of productivity, and that's going to be chock full of fiscal cliffs and debt default deadlines. This will last until Oct-Nov and who benefits from that? 1) Trump, who will call all of Congress idiots and have near unanimous agreement out of the voting public as the spectacle rages on, and 2) Cruz, who will be the one causing the shutdown.

That crowds out Jebbers! who some people hilariously thought benefited from Trump's rise ( :confused:) even though he's now in 4th place, but also Media Flavor Of the Month Kasich, Walker, and all other governors who have nothing to do with it, as well as Senate lightweights Paul, Graham and Rubio who will have to light themselves on fire to get any attention during all of this.

Once we get to November, now the Iowa caucus is only 12 weeks away and nobody is paying attention from Thanksgiving to Christmas. As Trump is going to benefit from Congressional dysfunction there's not a lot of time to knock him off his perch as the clear #1 and its going to cost precious money since nobody draws free coverage like The Donald.

Walker absolutely has to win Iowa or there's no reason for his candidacy. He sure as hell isn't winning the SEC primary. Bush has to win in New Hampshire with its taxphobic but live and let live on social issues base. If he can't do that then he's useless as a candidate (same with Kasich who needs a strong showing). These are the very people who will get crowded out of the conversation come winter time.

If Cruz does His Thing again this fall that's going to hamstring every sitting Republican, which is most of the field. Jeb! will benefit by not being connected to Congress and a mature voice in a party full of children. Carson would also be well-placed except (1) crazy and (2) if this year's poutrage is over say defunding PP, Carson will be all for it. (Walker has the same problem; plus he'll probably back furloughs with no back pay just to stick it to the guvvies.)

But I hereby fearlessly predict that even a cold, lengthy shutdown won't really affect the GOP nom. Something will happen in the world between November and May that will become the cause célèbre and the GOP electorate will react to it inordinately. The Israelis will reoccupy Lebanon again, or some sort of Southeast Asian foot rot will break out in Louisiana and kill a few hundred people, or a black activist will hold a suburban middle school hostage -- something will happen that shakes the GOP Etch-a-Sketch and creates a reactive wave.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Sure. Cain and Bachmann were in the lead the last time around at this time. They eventually pussied out and went establishment instead of true believer. Better pick a true believer this time. I want a real debate.

Check this out from NBC:

Donald Trump's policy position on immigration -- all undocumented immigrants must leave the country, no birthright citizenship, Mexico must pay for a border wall (and it will be penalized if it doesn't do so) -- is a big deal, because it will force the rest of the GOP field to react. Do they, too, believe that all undocumented immigrants must be deported, as Trump said on "Meet the Press" yesterday? Do they, too, believe that children of undocumented immigrants born in the U.S. shouldn't become citizens? Do they, too, believe that the U.S. should increase 1) fees on all temporary visas issued to Mexicans and 2) other fees and tariffs if Mexico doesn't build its wall? If anything, Trump provided very CLEAR answers on the thorny subject of immigration. Can his opponents respond as clearly?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Answer: NO. This is what the base wants to hear. Nobody on the right wants sympathy for illegals or how they come here out of an "act of love" - Jebbers! quote. Now Trump's proposal is absurd, but who thinks that really matters? Paul Ryan has been proposing absurd budgets for years and he's still taken seriously.

People on the right and the left need to realize something. There is no patience for mushy quasi-moderation that's being offered up by Bush and Kasich amongst the base. They want war, literally and figuratively. These guys poll well with 1) the DC cocktail set, and 2) the lamestream media. The Big 3 in the GOP is now Trump-Carson-Cruz, who are pulling in nearly half of those polled. Issue and persona-wise they're the same candidate, and somebody is going to emerge with those votes (add in the Walker and Huckleberry voters as well).
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

People on the right and the left need to realize something. There is no patience for mushy quasi-moderation that's being offered up

Isn't that historically true? Run to the outside (left or right) to get the party nomination; run to the middle in the general election.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Isn't that historically true? Run to the outside (left or right) to get the party nomination; run to the middle in the general election.

45 years ago, before digital media, it worked like a charm. Nowadays? Fuggedaboudit.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

45 years ago, before digital media, it worked like a charm. Nowadays? Fuggedaboudit.

I think the big difference now is you can't run region to region anymore. Pols used to make completely contradictory promises in Springfield and Shelbyville, and the only people who knew about it were campaign staff who were in on it and press who were jaded and drunk.

Now every aspect of a campaign is nationalized, with the result that pols can't "lie substantively" anymore. Campaigns become more and more vague and emotional: first Reagan, then Dubya, now Trump. The great irony is Trump supporters think he's an alternative to normal politics, whereas he's really the reductio ad absurdum of normal politics.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Isn't that historically true? Run to the outside (left or right) to get the party nomination; run to the middle in the general election.

Unlike Rover, I think this was, is and forever will be true. Even though there are fewer concrete proposals now (even the candidates' alleged "policy" papers just read as unfocused overviews with at best dog whistles), the rhetoric is far more extreme during the nom cycle. Think about all the bozos on stage in 2011 denying evolution. That was sheer pandering to the base -- I suspect every one of those candidates was overtly lying; nobody with an education from a competent high school is that ignorant. Then in the general the game is to duck all those red meat questions -- wink at the base while saying nothing to alienate the sane peripheral voters.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

I think you guys are living in the very distant past. :D Thinking back to their campaigns in the primaries and then the general election, I can't think of too many, if any, issues where either Obama or Romney or McCain ran on an issue in the primaries and then reversed themselves a few months later in the general election. You'd have to go back to 2004 with the very disorganized Kerry bid to see anything like that, and you can possibly chalk that up to Kerry not knowing himself where he stood on issues from one day to the next as opposed to any calculated strategy. :eek:

Yes, in 1968 Nixon coined the "run to the right in the primaries and to the middle in the general election" schtick. Do that today and you get roasted by activists feeding a lazy media looking for easy stories. Hell, Ben Carson who few people even know is getting creamed for coming out against fetal tissue research even though he himself did that during his medical career. If a minor player on the political scene is getting raked over the coals for flip-flopping, no way a party nominee gets away with it.

We live in different times gentlemen. The old "rules' no longer apply.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

We live in different times gentlemen. The old "rules' no longer apply.

I think you're confusing tactics and strategy. The former change all the time. The latter hasn't changed since Periclean Athens.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

I think you're confusing tactics and strategy. The former change all the time. The latter hasn't changed since Periclean Athens.

No matter, although kudos for getting Pericles into the discussion. Would have been extra points if you worked Aspasia (sp?) in there somehow...

Tactics or strategy, you can no longer tell one group of people one thing and then turn around and tell another group something completely different a couple of months later and get away with it. Why? Because everything's recorded and the news cycle is 24/7. So, can you say "I'm against abortion with some reasonable exceptions" in the primary and then detail those exceptions in the general? Sure because you're not being inconsistent. Can you say "no abortions under any circumstances" in the primary and then say "well, I'd make exceptions for rape, incent and life of mother" in the general? No. You'd get creamed.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Unlike Rover, I think this was, is and forever will be true. Even though there are fewer concrete proposals now (even the candidates' alleged "policy" papers just read as unfocused overviews with at best dog whistles), the rhetoric is far more extreme during the nom cycle. Think about all the bozos on stage in 2011 denying evolution. That was sheer pandering to the base -- I suspect every one of those candidates was overtly lying; nobody with an education from a competent high school is that ignorant. Then in the general the game is to duck all those red meat questions -- wink at the base while saying nothing to alienate the sane peripheral voters.
Evolution is an interesting theory, no question.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Monica Lewinsky has said she can't endorse Hilary for President because last time a Clinton was in office it left a bad taste in her mouth.

{Rimshot} Hey, I'm here all week. Try the veal! :D
 
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