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Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools?

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Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Will immigration be THE issue for the next 6 months or so? Pat thinks so. http://m.townhall.com/columnists/patbuchanan/2015/08/18/immigration--issue-of-the-century-n2040032

Pat - when discussing immigration, remember the words "Irish need not apply." Granted if the indigenous population is out bred by the immigrants, the natives will eventually be supplanted and will become the minority. But that's been happening since we left the Great Rift Valley millions of years ago.

And there's nothing new, either, about attacking the newcomers. Tribes don't like people invading there hunting grounds. It's all about survival of the fittest.

So Pat - what are the solutions? Walls? Deportations? Another Trail of Tears? Not going to work in this day and age. What may work is going to take a lot of work.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Bob Gray said:
Evolution is an interesting theory, no question.
Click to expand...

XYZ said:
More or less interesting than recycled mythology?
Click to expand...

One would think Bob has become a master at dealing with cognitive dissonance, but for a man who has built his identity on being the victim, the very thought of natural selection and all it implies just causes him to shut down and say something like "Evolution is an interesting theory."

A survival mechanism of the prey perhaps.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Pat misses the essential characteristic of the United States: it is not an ethnic-defined nation like France or Germany. Everybody is a potential American. As far as I'm concerned, if you come here and work, you're an American, and nobody works harder than the people he's scared of. I want more of them. Their work ethic and their experience of life under actual tyrannies around the world will make them ideal American citizens.

Our problem isn't our immigrants; it's the laziness and insularity of many of the people born here. Rather than build a wall, I'd prefer deportation after five generations. The green shoots aren't the threat to the forest; it's the dead wood.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Where we're going on immigration is that the GOP will adopt Trump's positions on this issue because the base approves of it. Building a wall AND getting Mexico to pay for it via tariffs, fees, and seizing assets? Woohoo! Sign 'em up.

How as a Jebbers!/Cruz/Walker/Rubio do you compete with that? You either 1) say "Yup I agree" which is what Walker just did and most likely Cruz will too, or 2) you run to his left :eek: and get crushed by the conservative media.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
I think the big difference now is you can't run region to region anymore. Pols used to make completely contradictory promises in Springfield and Shelbyville, and the only people who knew about it were campaign staff who were in on it and press who were jaded and drunk.

Now every aspect of a campaign is nationalized, with the result that pols can't "lie substantively" anymore. Campaigns become more and more vague and emotional: first Reagan, then Dubya, now Trump. The great irony is Trump supporters think he's an alternative to normal politics, whereas he's really the reductio ad absurdum of normal politics.
Click to expand...

nice.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
Everybody is a potential American. As far as I'm concerned, if you come here and work, you're an American, and nobody works harder than the people he's scared of. I want more of them. Their work ethic and their experience of life under actual tyrannies around the world will make them ideal American citizens.

Our problem isn't our immigrants; it's the laziness and insularity of many of the people born here. Rather than build a wall, I'd prefer deportation after five generations. The green shoots aren't the threat to the forest; it's the dead wood.
Click to expand...

This is the truth, and it's not stated often enough. The more the merrier. There are huge benefits to everyone when we take in as many immigrants as possible. Yes, I'm only 3rd generation (and biased) but it's still true. My grandparents' societal and economic contributions put me to shame. We should be putting up huge WELCOME signs along the border.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

geezer said:
This is the truth, and it's not stated often enough. The more the merrier. There are huge benefits to everyone when we take in as many immigrants as possible. Yes, I'm only 3rd generation (and biased) but it's still true. My grandparents' societal and economic contributions put me to shame. We should be putting up huge WELCOME signs along the border.
Click to expand...

This song makes me prouder to be an American than any of our stock patriotic anthems.

"It's more than true. It actually happened."
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
Pat misses the essential characteristic of the United States: it is not an ethnic-defined nation like France or Germany. Everybody is a potential American. As far as I'm concerned, if you come here and work, you're an American, and nobody works harder than the people he's scared of. I want more of them. Their work ethic and their experience of life under actual tyrannies around the world will make them ideal American citizens.

Our problem isn't our immigrants; it's the laziness and insularity of many of the people born here. Rather than build a wall, I'd prefer deportation after five generations. The green shoots aren't the threat to the forest; it's the dead wood.
Click to expand...

This position does you jack sh !t in the GOP primaries. Anybody who even approaches it is DOA. As Scooby posted, Walker is on board with Trump's plan. Soon everyone will have to comply.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

I can't tell, is Trump being played by Kodos or Kang?
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

St. Clown said:
I can't tell, is Trump being played by Kodos or Kang?
Click to expand...

Its that New World Order crowd that Flaggy is always talking about. In this case, he might actually be right! :eek: :eek: :eek:
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Rover said:
This position does you jack sh !t in the GOP primaries. Anybody who even approaches it is DOA. As Scooby posted, Walker is on board with Trump's plan. Soon everyone will have to comply.
Click to expand...

I don't think the GOP wants to sign its own death warrant. They already have blacks voting against them 90-10. If they get Latinos voting against them 90-10 they'll never win another presidential election, and they will start losing state elections too.

% Population Latino 2010 / current Senate breakdown

.46 NM DD
.38 CA DD
.38 TX RR
.30 AZ RR
.27 NV DR
.23 FL DR
.21 CO DR

That's potentially 7 Senators to lose just by alienating Latinos. And as state houses start changing all those voter suppression laws will be repealed (assuming the courts don't get them first).

You could not design a more damaging strategy for the Republicans than what they are doing to themselves. The inmates really did take over the asylum.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
I don't think the GOP wants to sign its own death warrant. They already have blacks voting against them 90-10. If they get Latinos voting against them 90-10 they'll never win another presidential election, and they will start losing state elections too.

% Population Latino 2010 / current Senate breakdown

.46 NM DD
.38 CA DD
.38 TX RR
.30 AZ RR
.27 NV DR
.23 FL DR
.21 CO DR

That's potentially 7 Senators to lose just by alienating Latinos. And as state houses start changing all those voter suppression laws will be repealed (assuming the courts don't get them first).

You could not design a more damaging strategy for the Republicans than what they are doing to themselves. The inmates really did take over the asylum.
Click to expand...

Kep, buddy, you're writing like a pundit who's been in Washington DC for 50 years. Base conservative voters are not logical, and they don't care about "writing off Hispanics" because they are enough professional grifters out there telling them that all they need to do is maximize the white vote, primarily thru evangelicals for example, and all will be well since whities make up 70% of the electorate. Win 70% of the 70% and voila, you're almost there!
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Rover said:
Kep, buddy, you're writing like a pundit who's been in Washington DC for 50 years. Base conservative voters are not logical, and they don't care about "writing off Hispanics" because they are enough professional grifters out there telling them that all they need to do is maximize the white vote, primarily thru evangelicals for example, and all will be well since whities make up 70% of the electorate. Win 70% of the 70% and voila, you're almost there!
Click to expand...

Base voters don't chart party strategy. The party has one job: get its candidates elected. Once a policy endangers that goal it has to go, regardless of how much the base supports it. Ideologues are only useful when they push winning policies.

Now, it used to be the money that actually controls the GOP had the self-discipline to jettison losing policies. I am having a hard time believing that's changed, because it's never changed in the history of the Republic and as I may have said before I don't believe anything important ever changes. I guess it is possible that the billionaires are a new element in American politics, and that nutbar ideologues are now actually pulling the train rather than riding it. But to be convinced I'd have to see the GOP deliberately follow through on long-term loser policies out of, ahem, "principle."

The people who run the numbers are under no illusions about demographics: a National Front government of the type that the GOP has been drifting towards is a loser in the United States. We're just too ethnically and culturally diverse. The best they could do is control chunks of the prairies and the south, and even the latter is dicey without apartheid laws that infringe black and Latino voting rights. Only a fool would push the Republicans even farther in that direction, and the people who control the GOP purse strings are not fools.

To put it another way, there are hard core conservatives on this board and I don't think any of them, regardless of whether they support these GOP policies, think they are election winners. At best they would probably say "there are some things you have to back regardless of how they poll," which is terrific if you're a private citizen or a politician who doesn't mind quickly becoming a private citizen, but is not the guidance you want when you're actually making the electoral sausage.

I can't believe I have to make this point about the GOP. They taught us this through the long march of 1978-91. How could they forget it?
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Mehhh...every once in awhile you get a Goldwater. Party aparatus has less influence every year. This has evolved over time. Used to be 100 years ago a dozen party insiders in a smoke filled back room picked the nominee (Harding). Then super delegates made the choice at the convention, the last time being Ford over Reagan. Then Big Money got behind somebody and that person prevailed. Problem now is there's too much big money backing too many people despite the party's best efforts. When that happens the base chooses the nominee. Hence the appeal of Trump, a guy who's openly mocking his rivals for kissing up to big money donors. Look, its democracy at its finest! When there's so much big money floating around, it starts cancelling each other out. The problem is a central party can no longer play Kingmaker. Fox tried that with The Donald during the debate sending Megyn Kelly after him plus a Luntz run focus group with a pre-ordained conclusion and they ended up doing a humiliating retreat afterwards.

We are in totally unchartered waters on the GOP side. Somewhat less so with the Dems because 1) there's only two plausible candidates running, and 2) Dems aren't as tied to a handful of billionaires to fund their campaigns. For the GOP, you have a billionaire running, and then another 7 or so candidates (Bush, Rubio, Walker, Paul, Christie, Kasich, Cruz) who each have their own sugar daddies or industries who will fund them independent of the RNC's wishes. Putting aside partisan preferences, its downright fascinating to watch. Mitt Romney only outlasted Sanitarium, a total nutjob, because of a tremendous money advantage and barely did so at that (Iowa caucus was called long after it ceased to matter, barely won Michigan which was his original home state). Jebbers! or whoever Republican Jesus is this time (Kasich at the moment) is not going to have that financial advantage to ward off a True Believer rival.
 
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