Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

[Jimjamesak]

The 2008 campaign showed just the opposite. Hillary ran better in the redder states. Blue collar Pennsyltuckians still remember Bill.

I think you are going by the lunatic screams from the right. At the moment they go up to 11 on Hillary, because (1) they are still butthurt over losing to Bill twice, and (2) BENGHAAAAAAAAZIIIIIIIIII!!!!111!1. But the thing you have to remember is the Echo Chamber will give any Dem nominee the same treatment -- it's a wash. The GOP reaction to the nominee makes no difference. All that matters is the nominee's organization and funding, and both those things are going to be off the charts for the Queen of the Night.

Those lunatic screams from the right will be driven out to vote in huge numbers with Hillary running and in huge enough numbers to guarantee control of the House. If the Dems can't control the House, nothing is gonna change.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

The Queens we use would not excite you.

Kepler, knowing you, I was very afraid to click that link.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Those lunatic screams from the right will be driven out to vote in huge numbers with Hillary running and in huge enough numbers to guarantee control of the House. If the Dems can't control the House, nothing is gonna change.

The lunatic screams are going to vote anyway -- no matter who the Dems nominate, he or she will be played up on the right as the Anti-Christ (in some places, literally). The right already has the bumper stickers for X is a "Nazi Commie Secret Muslim" printed up, with the name blank.

The Dems aren't going to control the House until after the next census. Hillary doesn't matter. I would say Hillary might actually be a bit of an asset because when Republican men inevitably overreach and start calling her all sorts of sick things Republican women will be turned off and either stay home or switch, but if Republican women haven't gotten wise to what the GOP is all about by now, it's never going to happen.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Kepler, knowing you, I was very afraid to click that link.

Good instinct.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Well, you can't say Kos is giving up, anyway.

I understand the impulse, here: if we vote, we win, so try and motivate as many people to vote as possible, and the best way to do that is to stress that your vote is maximally important because races are tight. Can't hurt, I suppose. We will find out tomorrow whether the Dems actually did a better job with GOTV this year than past midterms. Can't be worse than 2010; probably not going to be as good as 2006.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Well, you can't say Kos is giving up, anyway.

I understand the impulse, here: if we vote, we win, so try and motivate as many people to vote as possible, and the best way to do that is to stress that your vote is maximally important because races are tight. Can't hurt, I suppose. We will find out tomorrow whether the Dems actually did a better job with GOTV this year than past midterms. It's no secret that if we vote, we win.

I give it a 0% chance of succeeding. Can't wait for Mitch as majority leader.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Looks like the pot initiative is 50/50 in OR and a slam dunk in DC.

I can't really figure out OR. The state is one third Portlandia, one third Western Keep Yer Gubmint Outta My Life Libertarian, and one third redneck herpa-derp, so that ought to mean 67% for legalization. Did they just completely mismanagement it?

For that matter, even (especially?) rednecks spark up. Who the heck under the age of 65 is left who is against legalization?

 

[Old Pio]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

The lunatic screams are going to vote anyway -- no matter who the Dems nominate, he or she will be played up on the right as the Anti-Christ (in some places, literally). The right already has the bumper stickers for X is a "Nazi Commie Secret Muslim" printed up, with the name blank.

The Dems aren't going to control the House until after the next census. Hillary doesn't matter. I would say Hillary might actually be a bit of an asset because when Republican men inevitably overreach and start calling her all sorts of sick things Republican women will be turned off and either stay home or switch, but if Republican women haven't gotten wise to what the GOP is all about by now, it's never going to happen.

"Free birth control for rich b*tches" A great organizing principle and bumper sticker.

 

[Jimjamesak]

The lunatic screams are going to vote anyway -- no matter who the Dems nominate, he or she will be played up on the right as the Anti-Christ (in some places, literally). The right already has the bumper stickers for X is a "Nazi Commie Secret Muslim" printed up, with the name blank.

The Dems aren't going to control the House until after the next census. Hillary doesn't matter. I would say Hillary might actually be a bit of an asset because when Republican men inevitably overreach and start calling her all sorts of sick things Republican women will be turned off and either stay home or switch, but if Republican women haven't gotten wise to what the GOP is all about by now, it's never going to happen.

If you can't control the House now, you aren't going to control it after 2020. If the Dems can't start making inroads into Rural America and make Red states purple, start establishing control in the House and State Legislatures, or at the very least weaken Republican control, the status quo will continue.

 

[joecct]

I think so too.

I think Mitt will get dragged back in to run on lying and deceit of what the GOP really stands for and I think he will be elected this time. We'll nominate Hillary and she'll screw it up just like she did in 2008.

Oh God Adlai Stevenson versus Millard Fillmore. Just shoot me.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

If you can't control the House now, you aren't going to control it after 2020. If the Dems can't start making inroads into Rural America and make Red states purple, start establishing control in the House and State Legislatures, or at the very least weaken Republican control, the status quo will continue.

Not really. Red states will get gradually more purple as they get more brown. The Dems tried chasing white rural fundies in the 80s and 90s and it got them nowhere. That demographic is permanently Republican, but it is also dying. Western libertarians are the demo we should be pursuing, as those folks are just as impatient with the thumpers as liberals are. We have made some inroads there, though honestly I think that's less us being attractive than the GOP being repulsive. Another place to look is for growth is prairie state large town / city dwellers. Just as Republicans do well in rural districts in blue states, the Dems should be pressing their advantage in the urban parts of red states. Although we will never see their EVs, we can put a dent in the solid GOP sweep of their House seats.

For EVs, the future for both parties is in the West. The rest of the country is either sewn up for the next several cycles or, if there is movement, it's because Dems solidify VA and FL and pick up NC and eventually GA.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Oh God Adlai Stevenson versus Millard Fillmore. Just shoot me.

I'd call it Alf Landon vs Andrew Jackson. Although Landon actually made his own money, while Mittens just inherited. Jackson had a public persona as a revolutionary but he was actually just a factory politician with ferocious entitlement and vanity.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

One of the greatest endorsements of all time.

Daily News endorses indicted candidate on the theory that if he wins and is convicted, a special election will be held with two new candidates.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Looks like the pot initiative is 50/50 in OR and a slam dunk in DC.

I can't really figure out OR. The state is one third Portlandia, one third Western Keep Yer Gubmint Outta My Life Libertarian, and one third redneck herpa-derp, so that ought to mean 67% for legalization. Did they just completely mismanagement it?

For that matter, even (especially?) rednecks spark up. Who the heck under the age of 65 is left who is against legalization?

I think voters are looking at what happened in Colorado, where last I heard there are unresolved issues with marijuana DWIs, tourists who don't know the law and go nuts thinking they can spark up anywhere, and where a number of neo-hippies packed up and moved to Denver because "Wooooo, we can get blazed legally!", and they are taking a step back and thinking about the unresolved consequences.

I would be OK with legalizing possession of personal amounts, provided it's confined to home or cannabis club use, and if there was a clear cut, reliable field method of impairment detection to deal with the DWI issue. As far as I know, that is still in the works. So until then, the potheads can continue keeping it on the DL.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Not really. Red states will get gradually more purple as they get more brown. The Dems tried chasing white rural fundies in the 80s and 90s and it got them nowhere. That demographic is permanently Republican, but it is also dying. Western libertarians are the demo we should be pursuing, as those folks are just as impatient with the thumpers as liberals are. We have made some inroads there, though honestly I think that's less us being attractive than the GOP being repulsive. Another place to look is for growth is prairie state large town / city dwellers. Just as Republicans do well in rural districts in blue states, the Dems should be pressing their advantage in the urban parts of red states. Although we will never see their EVs, we can put a dent in the solid GOP sweep of their House seats.

For EVs, the future for both parties is in the West. The rest of the country is either sewn up for the next several cycles or, if there is movement, it's because Dems solidify VA and FL and pick up NC and eventually GA.

Red states aren't getting anymore purple, I know I live in one. If they were, you wouldn't be wasting time desperately holding on to the Senate. Rural areas and suburban areas aren't getting any bluer or browner and that fundamental demographic isn't dying off, it's getting passed on to their kids. I see it everyday here.

If you plan on getting EV in the West, you better start working your * off right now, because it's just gonna get redder and redder if you don't.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Red states aren't getting anymore purple, I know I live in one. If they were, you wouldn't be wasting time desperately holding on to the Senate. Rural areas and suburban areas aren't getting any bluer or browner and that fundamental demographic isn't dying off, it's getting passed on to their kids. I see it everyday here.

If you plan on getting EV in the West, you better start working your * off right now, because it's just gonna get redder and redder if you don't.

The data says the opposite of pretty much everything you say here. The largest growing portion of the population is rural Latinos. They are particularly concentrated in all the Usual Suspect states: TX, LA, AL, MS, GA, FL, NC. (For some reason SC and TN missed out.) Just as Dems have "black belt" seats in the deep south and "brown belt" seats in TX, they are going to only get stronger in the rural districts those families settle in. Some first gens are intimidated by the local yokels but second gens aren't going to play that -- just like blacks became an important regional voting bloc in the south, Latinos are going to be VERY important in 20 years throughout most of the south.

The GOP also has a marginal return problem. Their base is far, far right, so when they produce a new generation there's nowhere for the distribution curve to go on the right side, so the median moves back towards the center. The Dems have virtually no hard left (met any actual communists lately?) so the normal distrib in their next generation still preserves the mean. The Dems had the same marginal problem in the 70s -- they were already pushed up against the window on their left, so their right wing fell into Reagan's hands.

All of this can be avoided if the Republicans have an internal realignment, but they won't: (1) until they get stung REALLY hard at the polls, the internal dynamics won't allow it, and (2) even then, the right has a problem the left did not -- a big part of its base is utterly immobile because it functionally equates voting with religious faith. Not only won't they move -- they won't allow the party to move either. We already see this "Fear of Apostasy" problem on immigration. Everybody in the GOP with an ounce of sense knows they have to cut the racist rhetoric. But everybody who got less than 90% in their last primary is terrified of somebody running to their right. So the short term profit for individuals is the long term devastation for the national party -- again, exactly what happened to the Dems in the 70s.

The final thing is this isn't your father's Democratic Party. Believe it or not (and I had a very hard time believing it), the Dems have actually got their act together for now. They over-performed in 2006, 08, and 12. They are going to perform at par in 14. (They did underperform in 2010, but I think they learned from it.) Eventually they'll fall apart again -- every heterogeneous coalition is unstable in the long term. But the GOP used to be able to sit back and wait for the Dem implosion. That just isn't happening anymore.

 

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Is there going to be an election this year or something?
I'm wondering if I should be at all concerned about my unprecedented level of apathy. If it's raining a little bit tomorrow well... maybe just drive past. And the township hall is right on the way to work.

 

[Jimjamesak]

The data says the opposite of pretty much everything you say here. The largest growing portion of the population is rural Latinos. They are particularly concentrated in all the Usual Suspect states: TX, LA, AL, MS, GA, FL, NC. (For some reason SC and TN missed out.) Just as Dems have "black belt" seats in the deep south and "brown belt" seats in TX, they are going to only get stronger in the rural districts those families settle in. Some first gens are intimidated by the local yokels but second gens aren't going to play that -- just like blacks became an important regional voting bloc in the south, Latinos are going to be VERY important in 20 years throughout most of the south.

The GOP also has a marginal return problem. Their base is far, far right, so when they produce a new generation there's nowhere for the distribution curve to go on the right side, so the median moves back towards the center. The Dems have virtually no hard left (met any actual communists lately?) so the normal distrib in their next generation still preserves the mean. The Dems had the same marginal problem in the 70s -- they were already pushed up against the window on their left, so their right wing fell into Reagan's hands.

All of this can be avoided if the Republicans have an internal realignment, but they won't: (1) until they get stung REALLY hard at the polls, the internal dynamics won't allow it, and (2) even then, the right has a problem the left did not -- a big part of its base is utterly immobile because it functionally equates voting with religious faith. Not only won't they move -- they won't allow the party to move either. We already see this "Fear of Apostasy" problem on immigration. Everybody in the GOP with an ounce of sense knows they have to cut the racist rhetoric. But everybody who got less than 90% in their last primary is terrified of somebody running to their right. So the short term profit for individuals is the long term devastation for the national party -- again, exactly what happened to the Dems in the 70s.

The final thing is this isn't your father's Democratic Party. Believe it or not (and I had a very hard time believing it), the Dems have actually got their act together for now. They over-performed in 2006, 08, and 12. They are going to perform at par in 14. (They did underperform in 2010, but I think they learned from it.) Eventually they'll fall apart again -- every heterogeneous coalition is unstable in the long term. But the GOP used to be able to sit back and wait for the Dem implosion. That just isn't happening anymore.

I understand what the data saying but, admittedly coming from just first hand experience, the problem is migration. Liberals are moving toward liberal areas and conservatives are moving to conservative areas. Things have become so divided politically it's effected how and where people live, what kind of jobs they take, and even things like where they shop.

It's fine to be able to control urban areas even in red states, even winning Presidential elections. But if the Dems can't start establishing control in parts of rural and suburban areas then they'll continue to get gerrymandered out of establishing firm control of Government.

 

[joecct]

I understand what the data saying but, admittedly coming from just first hand experience, the problem is migration. Liberals are moving toward liberal areas and conservatives are moving to conservative areas. Things have become so divided politically it's effected how and where people live, what kind of jobs they take, and even things like where they shop.

It's fine to be able to control urban areas even in red states, even winning Presidential elections. But if the Dems can't start establishing control in parts of rural and suburban areas then they'll continue to get gerrymandered out of establishing firm control of Government.

I would not call Maryland a GOP stronghold, yet it is #2 on the gerrymander list.

And the former President calls the Illinois governor race

@dick_nixon: Quinn in Illinois tomorrow by three. Those of you who've said "How can Quinn do it?" have never been to Illinois. @sangpac

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

It's after midnight EST. I've found exactly one candidate I can vote for later today. Hooray?