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Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

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FlagDUDE08 said:
Maryland joined in? I thought it was just NY, NJ, and CT...
Click to expand...

Oh yea. AG Frosh announced he's suing. FYI, there is an election next November. He's on the ballot along with Gov. Lt. Gov, and Comptroller.

Gov. and Lt. Gov are GOP
AG is left D
Comptroller is middle D.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

FlagDUDE08 said:
The biggest issue I see is the power given to the Federal Reserve, a private corporation, to create "money" out of thin air and sell it to our government to pay debts. Since 1913, the purchasing power of the dollar has decreased over 99%. And when the backing of gold was removed, the issue became even worse, resulting in the stagflation of the 70's. Tack onto this the insistence to have inflation every year at 2%, the manipulation of borrowing rates to cause bubbles and crashes, and you have the economic problems that we see today. Whenever the discussion of "living wages" and that sort of thing comes up, I've always been of the position that the costs of living are what need to be addressed, as the raising of wages is just a trap to precipitate the same problem, only with larger numbers.
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Correct. The 2% inflation mandate seems to be in place to inflate away debt that our nation uses to stay afloat. The fed always touts this as a good thing, but over the long run, it kills the average person who doesn't have access to an unlimited credit market with no repercussions of never paying off said debt. If a regular person doesn't pay off their debt, their wages are garnished, or their ability to buy a home is hindered. If a nation doesn't pay off its debt, it just plays more monetary games. Look at Japan since the early 90s as their debt to GDP is even higher than ours. Their debt is so cheap, the only buyer of Japanese debt is...Japan! Whats worse, I have heard that Japanese institutions are writing options on said debt just to create income - if for some reason yields on these securities change a significant amount, there could be a problem with their currency! This obviously hurts the people if their currency plunges ( but maybe helps japan as a whole temporarily due to the balance of trade).

It will be interesting to see what Trumps chair of the Federal reserve does. In his election he (correctly I might add) stated that you can't have low interest rates forever. One would think he would nominate a hawkish fed chair that would raise rates. I think mr Powell is more of a hawk than Janet "Rebel" Yellan, but he is also a proponent of negative interest rates - the same policy that the BOJ is enacting right now. Either way I see increasing interest rates, and unwinding of QE to decrease asset prices from anything from housing to stocks. Tax cuts? I suspect they will be funnelled as they have in the past to products that produce yield, much like asset backed securities of the mid 2000s. As with anything where speculation and leverage are involved, I do not see this as a good thing for the average person whose wealth is dictated by the equity value of their house, or of their 401k. I have personally moved a good portion out of the stock market as this bull is tired. As soon as the market can do no wrong and everything is over priced, its time to re evaluate things.

Lets see where this goes. I am less optimistic than most.
 
unh_hockey said:
Correct. The 2% inflation mandate seems to be in place to inflate away debt that our nation uses to stay afloat. The fed always touts this as a good thing, but over the long run, it kills the average person who doesn't have access to an unlimited credit market with no repercussions of never paying off said debt. If a regular person doesn't pay off their debt, their wages are garnished, or their ability to buy a home is hindered. If a nation doesn't pay off its debt, it just plays more monetary games. Look at Japan since the early 90s as their debt to GDP is even higher than ours. Their debt is so cheap, the only buyer of Japanese debt is...Japan! Whats worse, I have heard that Japanese institutions are writing options on said debt just to create income - if for some reason yields on these securities change a significant amount, there could be a problem with their currency! This obviously hurts the people if their currency plunges ( but maybe helps japan as a whole temporarily due to the balance of trade).

It will be interesting to see what Trumps chair of the Federal reserve does. In his election he (correctly I might add) stated that you can't have low interest rates forever. One would think he would nominate a hawkish fed chair that would raise rates. I think mr Powell is more of a hawk than Janet "Rebel" Yellan, but he is also a proponent of negative interest rates - the same policy that the BOJ is enacting right now. Either way I see increasing interest rates, and unwinding of QE to decrease asset prices from anything from housing to stocks. Tax cuts? I suspect they will be funnelled as they have in the past to products that produce yield, much like asset backed securities of the mid 2000s. As with anything where speculation and leverage are involved, I do not see this as a good thing for the average person whose wealth is dictated by the equity value of their house, or of their 401k. I have personally moved a good portion out of the stock market as this bull is tired. As soon as the market can do no wrong and everything is over priced, its time to re evaluate things.

Lets see where this goes. I am less optimistic than most.
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You also predicted 5 dollar gas a decade ago. So yeah, your track record sucks.

There will be a correction coming, but if you're expecting Black Friday 2, electric bugaloo, well I've got a bridge to sell you.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

Considering my "call" on higher crude prices was 8 years ago, I wouldn't call one data point a track record. Interestingly enough during that time period, US production went from 5400 to about 9400 bbl/day from 09 to 16 due to shale production so perhaps the tagline "shale revolution" would have been more appropriate. If the secular change was higher crude prices, and better outcomes for companies in this space, it wasn't wrong until 2014.

Honestly I am not making any prediction on a correction ( nor did I in my last post). Do I think the market is overvalued on a P/E, Schiller price index/cape? Sure. Do I think there are overpriced securities like Tesla motors that are dislocated from their underlying value? Of Course. Markets and securities can remain overvalued or undervalued for a long time. These are merely discussion points, and not stock picks.

I would much prefer to discuss the merits of what I said rather than name calling.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

Oof. Dow off 300 at opening today.

Edit: and recovered all of it.
 
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Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

mookie1995 said:
Stocks fluctuate
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It's a good question, though. Assuming the Great Ravine is unstoppable, whenever it comes, will it be a Pearl Harbor cratering or have a prelude of manic volatility?
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

Kepler said:
It's a good question, though. Assuming the Great Ravine is unstoppable, whenever it comes, will it be a Pearl Harbor cratering or have a prelude of manic volatility?
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I have a feeling it's going to be "more of the same" that we've seen in each of the major drops we've had since the Federal Reserve took over. Market will tank, media will convince the people that capitalism is to blame when we really have is cronyism, a socialist will be touted as the second messiah to come in and make sweeping changes, more freedoms will be removed, the Federal Reserve will stay out of the way to let markets prosper, and the media will convince the people that the socialist policies are why things are so good. It happened with FDR. It happened with Obama. It will happen again. It is one of the "attacks" Dr. Day warned about should America choose to "resist". The only question is when, and the Fed themselves give plenty of hints. That's why the Federal Reserve is the true enemy.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

dxmnkd316 said:
Oof. Dow off 300 at opening today.

Edit: and recovered all of it.
Click to expand...

And lost it all and then some... Over 500 off the high from today.

Can't help but wonder if the Obama economic expansion is finally over. Obviously the DJIA isn't the greatest economic indicator, but this isn't pretty to look at.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

DJIA has cracked its 50-day SMA. :-/

Probably what triggered the jump from 500 to 800.

ETA: Now we've cracked 900.

ETA2: 1,000....

ETA3: 1,100....

ETA4: 1,300....

ETA5: 1,400...

ETA6: 1,500

ETA7: 1,600... I can't even keep up.

ETA8: Bouncing back. up to -1,100.
 
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Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

dxmnkd316 said:
And lost it all and then some... Over 500 off the high from today.

Can't help but wonder if the Obama economic expansion is finally over. Obviously the DJIA isn't the greatest economic indicator, but this isn't pretty to look at.
Click to expand...

It's The Heist. The smart money has already left. Prepare to get bent over by the same loveable f-cks who destroyed the economy in 2006.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

Kepler said:
It's The Heist. The smart money has already left. Prepare to get bent over by the same loveable f-cks who destroyed the economy in 2006.
Click to expand...

That's exactly what's happening. I'm kind of curious how high the fraction of retail investors selling reached. If it was relatively high, I'd also be curious to see how many people got screwed when the market bounced back up.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

I am not at all a proponent of panic selling but I have moved my balances from 60 S / 40 B to 35 S / 65 B. Please God give me a few hundred points buy back tonight before my moves go through. I'll lose whatever remaining crest there is.

<img src="https://cdn.someecards.com/someecards/usercards/1333475820307_4482894.png" height="300" />

Presumably I will be screwed anyway when the United States defaults.
 
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Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

Can you explain that like I am five? First chance I've had to check on news and I'm now worried I am too late to rebalance my 401k.
 
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