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Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

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Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

SO the massive gains were all trump...let me guess, the drops are not his fault
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

aparch said:
Can you explain that like I am five? First chance I've had to check on news and I'm now worried I am too late to rebalance my 401k.
Click to expand...

It's one theory. The older you get, the more you want to be in low return, highly stable, and very conservative investments like bonds. You won't make much, but you won't lose that much either. The younger you are, the more you can afford to take a kick in the pants because you have time to recover, therefore you want to be more in the stock market.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
It's one theory. The older you get, the more you want to be in low return, highly stable, and very conservative investments like bonds. You won't make much, but you won't lose that much either. The younger you are, the more you can afford to take a kick in the pants because you have time to recover, therefore you want to be more in the stock market.
Click to expand...

Got it!

Now to double check how bad my 401k is today. :D I'm not in Kepler's boat so if I have a loss, I can easily make that up.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

dxmnkd316 said:
It's one theory. The older you get, the more you want to be in low return, highly stable, and very conservative investments like bonds. You won't make much, but you won't lose that much either. The younger you are, the more you can afford to take a kick in the pants because you have time to recover, therefore you want to be more in the stock market.
Click to expand...

One other thing: Days like today are when you don't even open up your 401(k) or retirement accounts. It's already too late if you're finding out from the news.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

dxmnkd316 said:
DJIA has cracked its 50-day SMA. :-/

Probably what triggered the jump from 500 to 800.

ETA: Now we've cracked 900.

ETA2: 1,000....

ETA3: 1,100....

ETA4: 1,300....

ETA5: 1,400...

ETA6: 1,500

ETA7: 1,600... I can't even keep up.

ETA8: Bouncing back. up to -1,100.
Click to expand...

Looks like another flash crash; back to down 800.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

aparch said:
Can you explain that like I am five? First chance I've had to check on news and I'm now worried I am too late to rebalance my 401k.
Click to expand...

It's never too late / too early unless you're trying to time the top which is impossible and foolish.

In my case it's that my rebalances will go through tonight at the stroke of after Fidelity has taken care of all the folks they care about. Since we're in a 4% loss situation for the day I wouldn't be heartbroken if a late rally bought some of that back. It changes almost nothing in the long run, but it's not uncommon for a huge mid day drop to be followed by an end of day / late buy rally. That would just give my stock funds that much more oompf when they are moved into bond funds at 3 a.m. or whenever.

But the difference isn't going to cost me my retirement.

I actually thought we had another .5 to 1.5 years before the index funds started to crater, and we still may. But price/earnings ratios are (supposedly) way out of whack so the reckoning is coming. A stead hand at the helm could hold that off for a while but have you read the papers the last year?! ;)
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

aparch said:
Got it!

Now to double check how bad my 401k is today. :D I'm not in Kepler's boat so if I have a loss, I can easily make that up.
Click to expand...

If you're young you have nothing to worry about. Dollar cost averaging will save you if nothing else does.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

Kepler said:
It's never too late / too early unless you're trying to time the top which is impossible and foolish.
Click to expand...

Not to mention, if you time the top, then you have to time the bottom too.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

Kepler said:
Have these been found to correlate with anything or are they just random jitters?
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Haven't had the time for analysis to see what's going on. I do recall, the last time we had one of these, there was a bit of Greek panic. It's possible that people are finally understanding the weight of the FISA memo, large amounts of stock want to be sold, but then the volume starts becoming heavy because of the automated limit orders that are being placed on stocks, and of course the "panic sellers" pushing things even higher because they stupidly go for market price. Best I can say is to compare and contract with May 2010.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

GrinCDXX said:
Not to mention, if you time the top, then you have to time the bottom too.
Click to expand...

Well, I mean, you don't have to, but yes if you're trying to maximize you do. But timing the bottom is actually way more important denominators being what they are. I suspect (no empirical data) bottoms are much more forgiving. Tops notoriously can enter with free fall. I am not aware of any reciprocal phenomenon with bottoms and sharp rises.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 6.0: Nope, it only found woven strands

Kepler said:
Have these been found to correlate with anything or are they just random jitters?
Click to expand...

This isn't a flash crash. The flash crash was caused by a fat fingered or manipulative trade. I tuned to CNBC and MSNBC and they've called the NYSE and other exchanges and they have absolutely no evidence of this being a fat-fingered trade.

ETA: This is likely a result of the automated trading age we're in. WHen you cross markers like the 50-day SMA, you start to trigger the first large wave of computer-generated trades selling. Every step you take generates more. Eventually this snowballs until an actual human grabs the controls again, takes off autopilot, and that's why you saw the bounceback. People saw the stock market pulling a Menards 11% rebate on everything sale and they cashed in.
 
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