Business, Economics, and Taxes: Eat Cereal for Dinner

[dxmnkd316]

In a sure sign of economic downturn the number of flights at my work has dropped dramatically the last week or two. We’re half of what we were getting before the inauguration.

Canadian bookings into US via airlines has dropped like 70%.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Canadian bookings into US via airlines has dropped like 70%.

I'm in cargo. Specifically trade between North America and Asia.

But yes, Florida is in for a real hurting. By about September there's going to be some deep discounts for trips to Disney World and Universal.

 

[Kepler]

Listened to a story on a global capital market podcast about how Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) are going to lose their AAA ratings because of the impact of DOGE killing so many leases. Most USG rental agreements have non-penalty cancellation (because hitherto the USG has been a good tenant) so those instruments are going to crater and take down their investors and may even a few banks.

Just another gift from the Nazi regime.

Oh, but all the savings, right? About that.

 

[Handyman]

Listened to a story on a global capital market podcast about how Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) are going to lose their AAA ratings because of the impact of DOGE killing so many leases. Most USG rental agreements have non-penalty cancellation (because hitherto the USG has been a good tenant) so those instruments are going to crater and take down their investors and may even a few banks.

Just another gift from the Nazi regime.

Oh, but all the savings, right? About that.

I will believe it when I see it. In '08 they waited until almost the exact last second to drop the AAA rating and had to be brow beat into it.

 

[Handyman]

No one would have believed this a year ago...

 

[aparch]

View attachment 275

No one would have believed this a year ago...

I also read they're fast tracking the removal of intra-province tariffs.

 

[Kepler]

It's a start.

 

[rufus]

It's a start.

He just wanted to prove that Teslas don't explode.

To own the Libs.

 

[RaceBoarder]

I'm in cargo. Specifically trade between North America and Asia.

But yes, Florida is in for a real hurting. By about September there's going to be some deep discounts for trips to Disney World and Universal.

I think a good chunk of Florida's booking has already been done for 2025. Give it a year though. 2026 will be rough AF for them. Especially with Disney's reliance on foreign tourists for the last decade or so.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Michigan fucked around with the vote and is about to enter the finding out stage with the auto industry.

Unless the tariffs are cancelled again of course

 

[Handyman]

I think a good chunk of Florida's booking has already been done for 2025. Give it a year though. 2026 will be rough AF for them. Especially with Disney's reliance on foreign tourists for the last decade or so.

Actually I have read a lot of them were canceled already. Even a month ago people in Florida were complaining about it.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Actually I have read a lot of them were canceled already. Even a month ago people in Florida were complaining about it.

Yeah there’s been a lot of cancellations.

Don’t underestimate Canadian pride and anger

 

[ScoobyDoo]

He's destroying the US economy. Of that we can be certain. The FAFO folks will figure it out too late.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Actually I have read a lot of them were canceled already. Even a month ago people in Florida were complaining about it.

Makes sense. Unless you already put down a substantial deposit, you might get out for free or only a few hundred lost if you bail now on trips from June onward.

 

[aparch]

The problem I see is even if there's a massive blue wave for the house/senate in 26 and a Dem wins in 28: unless the nation can support an FDR to Johnson type era, the Democrats won't be able to fix Trump's mess fast enough for the "What have you done for me now?" crowd. As I've gotten older, I've seen it takes time for these initiatives to work. Infrastructure bills, on-shoring of jobs, everything takes time for the cycle to adjust. But the Tea-Party-esque types want to see immediate results. Its why DOGE has found its niche supporters. They want results, and want to see them now.

Rebuilding takes time and commitment. The GOP want instant gratification.

Markets, as we've seen, drop in a hurry. Building them back up takes time.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

It's not just the GQP - Americans in general want instant gratification, it's been the nature of our society since the 60s.

 

[Jimjamesak]

The problem I see is even if there's a massive blue wave for the house/senate in 26 and a Dem wins in 28: unless the nation can support an FDR to Johnson type era, the Democrats won't be able to fix Trump's mess fast enough for the "What have you done for me now?" crowd. As I've gotten older, I've seen it takes time for these initiatives to work. Infrastructure bills, on-shoring of jobs, everything takes time for the cycle to adjust. But the Tea-Party-esque types want to see immediate results. Its why DOGE has found its niche supporters. They want results, and want to see them now.

Rebuilding takes time and commitment. The GOP want instant gratification.

Markets, as we've seen, drop in a hurry. Building them back up takes time.

That’s why things have to get really bad, like depression era levels bad. Otherwise people won’t learn.

 

[RaceBoarder]

The problem I see is even if there's a massive blue wave for the house/senate in 26 and a Dem wins in 28: unless the nation can support an FDR to Johnson type era, the Democrats won't be able to fix Trump's mess fast enough for the "What have you done for me now?" crowd. As I've gotten older, I've seen it takes time for these initiatives to work. Infrastructure bills, on-shoring of jobs, everything takes time for the cycle to adjust. But the Tea-Party-esque types want to see immediate results. Its why DOGE has found its niche supporters. They want results, and want to see them now.

Rebuilding takes time and commitment. The GOP want instant gratification.

Markets, as we've seen, drop in a hurry. Building them back up takes time.

Most of American society hasn't truly been forced to "touch the stove" so to speak.

Yea, they hear about unemployment and whatnot, but they don't care cause THEIR job is still paying a paycheck.

Until many of them have to face consequences, they won't see the bigger picture. That's why they keep reverting to R's in elections. They (voters) suffer a stubbed toe that sidelines them for a day or two instead of a compounded tib/fib that takes 8-9 months of rehab/recovery.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Most of American society hasn't truly been forced to "touch the stove" so to speak.

Yea, they hear about unemployment and whatnot, but they don't care cause THEIR job is still paying a paycheck.

Until many of them have to face consequences, they won't see the bigger picture. That's why they keep reverting to R's in elections. They (voters) suffer a stubbed toe that sidelines them for a day or two instead of a compounded tib/fib that takes 8-9 months of rehab/recovery.

One of my oldest friends works for gov as a phd as does their spouse

Dad is a huge trumper and is still saying there’s no way his kid can lose their job

 

[Jimjamesak]

Honestly, even the Dems need to touch the stove. A lot of them, especially the leadership, need to realize that the world has changed and “radical” solutions are needed.