Business, Economics, and Taxes: Eat Cereal for Dinner

[Kepler]

The thing we should be worried about is underemployment. People with degrees working retail or gig jobs. The amount of people who are independent contractors. People who can't even be classified as living paycheck to paycheck. People who (as DGF said) have exhausted their unemployment resources or no longer are classified as "part of the workforce".

Median income as a ratio of median debt. I wonder how that graphs since The Great Betrayal in 1980? And then back farther all the way to the beginning of record keeping.

I have a feeling it's steady rise from 1932 through 1968, stagnation from 1968 to 1980, and then off the cliff after 1980.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

There's a movie about how this ends.

The more time goes on, the more I envy Ryan goslings character in Lars and the Real Girl. Which I believe takes place in Minnesota haha.

 

[RaceBoarder]

Its not faking it...its that the metric we used is stupid and flawed and does not in any way actually account for anything of value. Unemployment as a media/political tool says almost nothing about the state of the workforce...like how the DJIA says nothing about the state of the real economy. They are stupid tools that can be used as headlines by ignorant media types to pacify the uninformed.

Think about how many layoffs there have been since January both in the private and public sector. Yet what is the unemployment number? Why do you think that is?

The thing we should be worried about is underemployment. People with degrees working retail or gig jobs. The amount of people who are independent contractors. People who can't even be classified as living paycheck to paycheck. People who (as DGF said) have exhausted their unemployment resources or no longer are classified as "part of the workforce". That is where Dems can really make headway if they want to. They spent all that time in '23 and '24 talking about how great unemployment and the stock market was, and what they were ignoring (because their leadership is elitist losers) was that people weren't working jobs that allowed them to have any sort of real life. Costs were rising, housing was out of control, pay was stagnant and things was getting ugly. Even in Middle Class Suburbs in Blue States like Minnesota were struggling to make ends meet. We (I was guilty of this too) spent so much time saying "our economy is the envy of the world" which was true but we were ignoring that the average person wasn't seeing it because price gouging was out of control and the rich were squeezing everything to the point of almost breaking it. People like DGF were getting laid off left and right (even more now) and could not find comparable work so they either used up all their resources or took jobs that they were severely overqualified for and couldn't afford a lot of things. But yet every metric we use to try and discuss it says otherwise...

That is why a lot of union members flipped. Sure we can blame racism if we want and some of that is certainly at play but if you only know about the stuff in your life and you see things are going the wrong way you aren't going to like it when people that seem (and often are) better off than you are telling you that everything is fine and you need to just suck it up and deal. And make no mistake that is how it often sounded when some of these clowns talked. Then Trump comes around and pretends to care and that looks better...then they say "but look they want to protect the Trans people" and all of a sudden it looks like the Dems care more about the LGBTQ than they do just the average person. (which is of course nonsense)

I am not making excuses here just saying that the reason people feel detached from the Dems these days is because the Dems stopped talking to people who aren't throwing huge swaths of cash their way. It is even worse now because they think they already have '26 locked. They think people are going to punish MAGA for what's coming but they have no ideas of their own and they still speak in economic theory not what is actually happening. Most people dont give a chit about the unemployment number just their own employment. The Dem Party forgot that a long time ago.

Just to be clear....

So you are now, eight months later, acknowledging the EXACT thing that myself, JJ, and maybe one other person here have been saying the whole time...

I'm sorry, but yea, this was the EXACT reason so many people turned the way they did... This is EXACTLY why the egg thing played so well. 90% of people don't understand complex macro-economics... But they sure as hell realize when they used to only need 80% of their paycheck to cover "life" and had some wiggle room, and yet somehow that became needing the whole paycheck while still cutting several noticeable things from their spending...

This point was probably the one area where the board (as a whole) was truly tone deaf over the last year. And I'm sorry, but most people in the US currently aren't going to have much sympathy for someone who has been unemployed for 15-18 months, yet can still live a fairly cushy life....

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Ah yes, the cushy life I lead.

Lmao. Somehow, my extended family’s wealth hasn’t been transferred to me

Race, please share, I’m dying to know- how many more months of unemployment do I deserve? And where was I begging for sympathy? Take your rage out on someone who gives a fuck

(Rhetorical question, I’m not going to see whatever pathetic response you have. You’ve been simmering with rage at people who you deem as “better off” and I’m not gonna read it anymore.

 

[RaceBoarder]

Ah yes, the cushy life I lead.

Lmao. Somehow, my extended family’s wealth hasn’t been transferred to me

Race, please share, I’m dying to know- how many more months of unemployment do I deserve? And where was I begging for sympathy? Take your rage out on someone who gives a fuck

(Rhetorical question, I’m not going to see whatever pathetic response you have. You’ve been simmering with rage at people who you deem as “better off” and I’m not gonna read it anymore.

Simple question: Do you NEED the job or do you WANT the job at this exact moment? Cause those are two VERY different life positions. (But with your upcoming travel to Europe, it's not hard to assume what the real answer here is.)

 

[St. Clown]

Tomorrow we can drive around this town
And let the cops chase us around
The past is gone, but something might be found
To take its place

Hey jealousy

Hey jealousy
She took my heart
Well, there's only one thing I couldn't start

 

[unofan]

Even if any given metric (U2, U6, whatever) is flawed, the trending should tell us something, right?

Yes, and the supporters of the party out of power always argue that the U3 number (which is the headline number) is grossly flawed and we should use the U6 number (which includes the underemployed and the workforce dropouts). Which may be true, but the trends in both tend to match up decently well so it's really just a matter of having a proper perspective on what the numbers mean.

The problem with switching to the U6 number as the headline number is that it would be a death sentence for the party in power, because the headline will look worse than the established norm and people won't get it, for the same reason A&W restaurants selling 1/3rd pound burgers lost out to the Quarter Pounder and Big Mac (people thought they were smaller because 3 is less than 4). Not to mention societal inertia, which is the same reason we still use QWERTY keyboards which are intentionally designed to slow down typing, and the Gregorian calendar which shifted New Years' from March to January and screwed up both the names of the months and the placement of the leap day (used to be at the end of the year rather than randomly in the 2nd month).

 

[Handyman]

Just to be clear....

So you are now, eight months later, acknowledging the EXACT thing that myself, JJ, and maybe one other person here have been saying the whole time...

I'm sorry, but yea, this was the EXACT reason so many people turned the way they did... This is EXACTLY why the egg thing played so well. 90% of people don't understand complex macro-economics... But they sure as hell realize when they used to only need 80% of their paycheck to cover "life" and had some wiggle room, and yet somehow that became needing the whole paycheck while still cutting several noticeable things from their spending...

This point was probably the one area where the board (as a whole) was truly tone deaf over the last year. And I'm sorry, but most people in the US currently aren't going to have much sympathy for someone who has been unemployed for 15-18 months, yet can still live a fairly cushy life....

Yes. I made the mistake of thinking things were better off than they are or that people were smart enough to realize why things aren't as good as they should be. You dont need to know complex economic theory to know why prices are high...you just have to not be lazy. Like I seriously thought price gouging was all you needed to know...

I also didn't account for the fact that half the country would memory hole 2016-2020. And not just the people the media as well.

But yes.

 

[Kepler]

Yes, and the supporters of the party out of power always argue that the U3 number (which is the headline number) is grossly flawed and we should use the U6 number (which includes the underemployed and the workforce dropouts). Which may be true, but the trends in both tend to match up decently well so it's really just a matter of having a proper perspective on what the numbers mean.

The problem with switching to the U6 number as the headline number is that it would be a death sentence for the party in power, because the headline will look worse than the established norm and people won't get it, for the same reason A&W restaurants selling 1/3rd pound burgers lost out to the Quarter Pounder and Big Mac (people thought they were smaller because 3 is less than 4). Not to mention societal inertia, which is the same reason we still use QWERTY keyboards which are intentionally designed to slow down typing, and the Gregorian calendar which shifted New Years' from March to January and screwed up both the names of the months and the placement of the leap day (used to be at the end of the year rather than randomly in the 2nd month).

It never occured to me that the months should be 3, 4, ... 12, 1, 2, and then Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec work. I thought it was the Romans who fucked it up by adding July and August. TIL.

 

[Slap Shot]

Even if the UE rate isn't doesn't tell the whole story (which I agree with), it's still up vs. Dec and January so how they are thinking this is a flex in Trump's favor? Non-farm employment is also down.

 

[French Rage]

Inflation ticking up.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

Gregorian calendar which shifted New Years' from March to January and screwed up both the names of the months and the placement of the leap day (used to be at the end of the year rather than randomly in the 2nd month).

I always thought April 1 used to be New Year's Day. That's why you have April Fool's Day. When the change was made (there was no Internet or even a high rate of literacy to let people know), folks used to "invite" people to New Year's Day parties on April 1, but of course there wouldn't be a party. Thus, the ignorant were played like a fool.

But your comment about Leap Day doesn't back up my point.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

It never occured to me that the months should be 3, 4, ... 12, 1, 2, and then Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec work. I thought it was the Romans who fucked it up by adding July and August. TIL.

So did I. The calendar used to be 10 months until July and August were added. I also thought that is why February had 28 days. Both Julius and Augustus insisted their months get 31 days, so they took the days away from February.

 

[Handyman]

I believe on the old calendar you ran into the same problem you run into on the Jewish calendar where a Leap Day wasn't enough. Lunar based calendars require Leap Months over a certain amount of time (2-3 years) because they only last roughly 354 Days.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Even if the UE rate isn't doesn't tell the whole story (which I agree with), it's still up vs. Dec and January so how they are thinking this is a flex in Trump's favor? Non-farm employment is also down.

And to the point uno made yesterday, every in office party did this. I knew the numbers were misleading under Biden, too

 

[Handyman]

Yeah DGF talked about it a lot under Biden.

Thing is, under Biden we were creating jobs at a better pace so people were getting jobs alongside the mid level layoffs. (based on what I see now) So while some middle manager might have lost their job 2 kids out of college would have gotten which makes the numbers look better. DGF I believe you saw some of that first hand didn't you at UHG? Anyways when people are getting jobs the ones who lost their jobs tend to get ignored because everyone is happy the trend is going the right way. If Trump keeps underperforming in job creation the number will explode fast which shocks the system...even though people who even pay half attention see it coming and if we were discussing even once deeper everyone would be prepared.

I am not advocating for talking about the U6 number over the U3 or any of that. I just think the way we talk about unemployment needs to be different in general. Democrats and the media need to treat it as more nuanced than a basic number. Christ people understand advanced stats in sports its not like they can't handle the statement "unemployment overall is down but the job market is stagnant and here is why". 2% unemployment is great for the market, but it doesn't really help the people who lost their jobs and are struggling. (especially over the age of 30)

Just because there isn't a recession doesn't mean people aren't being crushed under the same types of stressors. That is stuff Zohran talked about and that is why Zohran overperformed in almost every group in most of the Five Boroughs. Off topic but to prove Jeffries is not a good politician, Zohran won his district. His voters like him...Jeffries is still not "supporting Blue No Matter Who" and there is real talk of a DSA challenger in their primary. Even Torres, the man bought and paid for by AIPAC worse than Jeffries, saw that Zohran won his district and pivoted.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Yeah DGF talked about it a lot under Biden.

Thing is, under Biden we were creating jobs at a better pace so people were getting jobs alongside the mid level layoffs. (based on what I see now) So while some middle manager might have lost their job 2 kids out of college would have gotten which makes the numbers look better. DGF I believe you saw some of that first hand didn't you at UHG? Anyways when people are getting jobs the ones who lost their jobs tend to get ignored because everyone is happy the trend is going the right way. If Trump keeps underperforming in job creation the number will explode fast which shocks the system...even though people who even pay half attention see it coming and if we were discussing even once deeper everyone would be prepared.

I am not advocating for talking about the U6 number over the U3 or any of that. I just think the way we talk about unemployment needs to be different in general. Democrats and the media need to treat it as more nuanced than a basic number. Christ people understand advanced stats in sports its not like they can't handle the statement "unemployment overall is down but the job market is stagnant and here is why". 2% unemployment is great for the market, but it doesn't really help the people who lost their jobs and are struggling. (especially over the age of 30)

Just because there isn't a recession doesn't mean people aren't being crushed under the same types of stressors. That is stuff Zohran talked about and that is why Zohran overperformed in almost every group in most of the Five Boroughs. Off topic but to prove Jeffries is not a good politician, Zohran won his district. His voters like him...Jeffries is still not "supporting Blue No Matter Who" and there is real talk of a DSA challenger in their primary. Even Torres, the man bought and paid for by AIPAC worse than Jeffries, saw that Zohran won his district and pivoted.

Yeah, I did mass amounts of hiring over 15 years so could always tell when patterns change.

But thanks to this thread, I’ve learned that I will no longer feel bad for tiny little men that feel they’re underpaid

 

[unofan]

Christ people understand advanced stats in sports

The general populace doesn't. They struggle with anything other than batting average, HRs, and RBIs. God forbid you ask them how to calculate an ERA, let alone OPS or anything more advanced than that. Hell, most hall-of-fame voters who are supposed to be experts only recently starting caring about OPS and rarely go beyond that.

Same applies to most other sports, too. Unless you're a super fan or a degenerate gambler, you aren't caring about advanced stats. There's a reason statistics as an area of mathematics came about after calculus, geometry, and most other areas. The human brain sucks at it at a base level because we're wired to look for and spot patterns, not randomness. And very few people care enough to train their minds differently.

 

[Handyman]

Well advanced stats are stupid anyways...just nerds trying to quantify things they don't understand

I havent known anyone that can't calculate ERA...but even that is probably tougher than explaining why unemployment doesnt tell the story.

 

[Kepler]

Well advanced stats are stupid anyways...just nerds trying to quantify things they don't understand

< Keith Hernandez has entered the chat >