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Business, Economics, and Taxes 2: That's Why We Fight to Take the Means Back

ticapnews said:
The cut has already been priced in. The market is at an all time high. It should plummet about 2:01 ET. I'm reshorting SPY around noon. By close of business my play money will either be gone or I'll be looking at villas on the Mediterranean coast. (That might be a slight exaggeration)
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The cut is meaningless...the problem is the house of cards you mention in your post. The market is basically one big ponzi right now where stocks are overvalued because OpenAI and its competitors make stock deals with companies like Nvidia. Your parable is perfect as that is what is going on. When it explodes it won't be 2008...its going to be like when the Railroads almost killed the economy. (Any of the half dozen times) Since everything else is struggling and job loss is through the roof when the bottom falls out Herbert Hoover will be in good company.
 
Handyman said:
The cut is meaningless...the problem is the house of cards you mention in your post. The market is basically one big ponzi right now where stocks are overvalued because OpenAI and its competitors make stock deals with companies like Nvidia. Your parable is perfect as that is what is going on. When it explodes it won't be 2008...its going to be like when the Railroads almost killed the economy. (Any of the half dozen times) Since everything else is struggling and job loss is through the roof when the bottom falls out Herbert Hoover will be in good company.
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The problem is no one knows when the bubble is going to burst. It could be this afternoon, it could be in a decade. Until then, the market is no better than a casino. One slot machine is as good as the next, and you never know. Friends of ours just bought a house and two cars thanks to the NVDA options they've held for the last year.
 
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I had the timing a little off, and I hedged more than I originally planned, but I think it went well. Thanks, Jerome! 😁

Oh, and Powell chilled the markets further at his presser by hinting that another rate cut in December isn't as likely as previously thought.
 
ticapnews said:
The problem is no one knows when the bubble is going to burst. It could be this afternoon, it could be in a decade. Until then, the market is no better than a casino. One slot machine is as good as the next, and you never know. Friends of ours just bought a house and two cars thanks to the NVDA options they've held for the last year.
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It wont be until at least The Midterms because Billionaires need it to stay high so they will prop it up. Only way it happens before that is if China 100% cuts us off...but even then it wont happen right away. It will take something like the collapse of Bear Stearns to get the ball rolling in ernest.

By the Midterms though propping it up through tech wont do much because the unemployment rate will be off the charts bad, inflation will be still on the rise and people will be out of credit to use. Once the defaults start en masse its all over but the shouting.
 
Handyman said:
It wont be until at least The Midterms because Billionaires need it to stay high so they will prop it up. Only way it happens before that is if China 100% cuts us off...but even then it wont happen right away. It will take something like the collapse of Bear Stearns to get the ball rolling in ernest.

By the Midterms though propping it up through tech wont do much because the unemployment rate will be off the charts bad, inflation will be still on the rise and people will be out of credit to use. Once the defaults start en masse its all over but the shouting.
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They'll try to prop it up but it'll likely crash by the summer, the signs are already there and a weak holidays will likely cause everything to move faster.
 
Jimjamesak said:
They'll try to prop it up but it'll likely crash by the summer, the signs are already there and a weak holidays will likely cause everything to move faster.
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You may be right...but I gotta think even Trump knows if the holidays go bad he needs to walk back some of the tariffs. I mean even his stupidest of fans knows why they have zero cash right now (they send him messages on Facebook and Twitter!) and if retail tanks over the holidays (and yes it will especially since he nuked having China as a partner) then yeah summer might be too hopeful even with the ultra rich propping it up.

Amazon laying off as many people as they are along with the AWS downtime might be the two harbingers. (along with UPS) Amazon might be the trigger...
 
Handyman said:
It wont be until at least The Midterms because Billionaires need it to stay high so they will prop it up. Only way it happens before that is if China 100% cuts us off...but even then it wont happen right away. It will take something like the collapse of Bear Stearns to get the ball rolling in ernest.

By the Midterms though propping it up through tech wont do much because the unemployment rate will be off the charts bad, inflation will be still on the rise and people will be out of credit to use. Once the defaults start en masse its all over but the shouting.
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To your point, the market has already rebounded to nearly record highs. Good thing I sold when I did. And now my hedge will actually turn a profit rather than accrue a loss. Go figure.

The spice must flow.
 
There is a guy on Polymarket who obviously has insider info cause he hedges right before every Trump decision...
 
Handyman said:
You may be right...but I gotta think even Trump knows if the holidays go bad he needs to walk back some of the tariffs. I mean even his stupidest of fans knows why they have zero cash right now (they send him messages on Facebook and Twitter!) and if retail tanks over the holidays (and yes it will especially since he nuked having China as a partner) then yeah summer might be too hopeful even with the ultra rich propping it up.

Amazon laying off as many people as they are along with the AWS downtime might be the two harbingers. (along with UPS) Amazon might be the trigger...
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I don’t think there’s anything they can do to stave things off. Even if Dump lowers the tariffs it’s not going to lower prices, short of holding a gun to the head of every CEO I suppose.

When the extra shifts and extra part time jobs during the holidays that people usually rely on to help them through the rest of winter don’t materialize, people will be lucky to make it through February or March. And by that time, the rough holiday numbers will be out and the layoffs will quickly follow. After the layoffs, things will spiral out quickly.
 
Jimjamesak said:
I don’t think there’s anything they can do to stave things off. Even if Dump lowers the tariffs it’s not going to lower prices, short of holding a gun to the head of every CEO I suppose.

When the extra shifts and extra part time jobs during the holidays that people usually rely on to help them through the rest of winter don’t materialize, people will be lucky to make it through February or March. And by that time, the rough holiday numbers will be out and the layoffs will quickly follow. After the layoffs, things will spiral out quickly.
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What rough numbers? From the government? Country's closed. Moose out front should have told you. From the corporate balance sheets? I'll pay you a trillion dollars to eat that bug...

The bubble will only burst when some billionaire gets tired of propping up the system and figures a way to profit off the pop. He will announce that the emperor has no clothes and the market will tumble. Until then everything keeps chugging along even as countless people get laid off, become homeless and decrease the surplus population.
 
ticapnews said:
Two men are taking a walk after lunch. They see a bug on the sidewalk and one says, "I'll pay you a million dollars to eat that bug." So the other man picks up the bug and eats it. As promised, the first writes a check for a million dollars.

As they continue walking they see another bug. This time the second man says that he will pay a million dollars if his friend eats the bug. So he does. As promised, the second man writes a check for a million dollars.

At the end of their walk the two men congratulate themselves on both making a million dollars.

Now replace the men in that story with executives from Nvidia, OpenAI, Amazon, Microsoft.... The whole thing is an incestuous house of cards and when the bubble bursts we'll all be screwed. Except them, of course. They'll be insulated by golden parachutes and government bailouts.
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