Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

[RaceBoarder]

Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

A very popular restaurant in the area did curbside and a day later shut down. The loss of bar revenue amongst other add ons that get lost when doing curbside made it unprofitable. I think this will happen more and more the longer this goes.

Hovey,

Not one small business I know is applying for the PPP program loans but they are mostly restaurants and other service jobs so the PPP program wont much help them. I a trying oto convince one friend who has a small pizza franchise to do it though because he hasnt lost enough business to close so he is treading water. (though business is on the rise) Thanks for the info

I dont think the PPP will help abate the unemployment wave much, but it will help keep some small businesses afloat which is nice.

Meanwhile yesterday Goldman said Q2 is gonna be a bloodbath financially but now is trying to claim there will be a historic recovery in Q3. Somehow I am doubting that...

I'm sure the loss of profit from pop alone is a big hit since that has the single biggest markup of any item that's sold.

 

[aparch]

Meanwhile yesterday Goldman said Q2 is gonna be a bloodbath financially but now is trying to claim there will be a historic recovery in Q3. Somehow I am doubting that...

CNBC's talking heads estimated Q4 as the upturn for the last week. When the Goldman Sachs outlook was read this morning, I'm pretty sure I heard audible laughter from the hosts.


Also, Hovey, I misspoke on the reply to F2B&G. Michigan will easily double next week. Nationally... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I think it's going to be another two mil.


Raceboarder: Saving both to my Google Maps, but would most likely visit the Yorkville location if I get out for a drive this weekend and wanna grab lunch. Been stopping by once a week for tacos at a fantastic place super close to my house: Jefa Tacos in Aurora.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

A very popular restaurant in the area did curbside and a day later shut down. The loss of bar revenue amongst other add ons that get lost when doing curbside made it unprofitable. I think this will happen more and more the longer this goes.

I think the more upscale sit-down restaurants that depend heavily on liquor sales are just trying to burn up what's left of their inventory before they shut down. There's a couple here in my town that are slowly eliminating items from their GrubHub/DoorDash/UberEats menus as they run out of them, and I figure in about another week they will probably both close.

 

[aparch]

if at the end of this we don't separate health coverage from employment, there is truly no hope whatsoever.

Preach!

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

A very popular restaurant in the area did curbside and a day later shut down. The loss of bar revenue amongst other add ons that get lost when doing curbside made it unprofitable. I think this will happen more and more the longer this goes.

Hovey,

Not one small business I know is applying for the PPP program loans but they are mostly restaurants and other service jobs so the PPP program wont much help them. I a trying oto convince one friend who has a small pizza franchise to do it though because he hasnt lost enough business to close so he is treading water. (though business is on the rise) Thanks for the info

I dont think the PPP will help abate the unemployment wave much, but it will help keep some small businesses afloat which is nice.

Meanwhile yesterday Goldman said Q2 is gonna be a bloodbath financially but now is trying to claim there will be a historic recovery in Q3. Somehow I am doubting that...

I'm not sure why small businesses wouldn't do it. The only thing that I can think of is if they leave their laid off employees on unemployment the employees may actually get checks larger than their normal paycheck due to the fed unemployment bonus of $600/week.

My sister owns a bar and restaurant in Tucson and she is doing it. If you do it or if you don't do it and lay the employees off, either way you don't have any employee costs. But if you do the loan, you'll get help with the mortgage interest or rent, plus utilities.

There is a possibility that not all of the mortgage interest, rent or utilities will be forgiven. I understand there is a chance that the actual amount forgiven will be between 25% and 100% depending upon demand for the loans. But payroll is 100% forgiven, so it puzzles me why a restaurant or bar wouldn't do the loan, unless they have no rent or mortgage, and no utility expense that they'll have to pay.

 

[Rover]

Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

I prefer to wait until after the election for a couple of reasons. First, although I'm confident Schiff will do his job and do it well, as we say with the Ukraine treason if you don't have a cooperative Justice Dept its going to be that much harder to get the info you need. Next, it does look petty in the middle of the crisis. Let's focus on getting the medical personnel the equipment that they need.

Where I do agree though is we need prosecutions after Inauguration Day. Not a slap on the wrist either, but jail time. That's the only way to discourage these people. Nixon's cronies all went to the clink even if he himself benefited from a pardon. Same things needs to happen here. There's a reason why execs don't cook the books as much anymore. Its out of fear after a bunch of them served lengthy prison sentences after Enron and other companies blew up. That's the model I'm looking for with a Biden appointed Justice Dept and US Attorneys.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

Sorry, I’m with Kevin kruse on this one. Today, early April? No. In the hope things slow a bit, Congress should still do its oversight job and investigate crimes before 2021
I’m working all day and won’t be able to respond all day so I guess we’ll just agree to disagree.

Kruse is wrong too. If they start an commission now it will be a PR disaster a month from now. Investigating is one thing, having a commission or any sort of hearings in the midst of a pandemic will just look awful. The earliest they should even talk about it is once things start to open up a bit. (whenever the hell that is)

This isnt about what is right and wrong, because we all know who should hang over this. Every time the Dems hold another hearing into something this administration does though it backfires in the end and this will too. (not to mention it isnt like they will be able to hold anyone accountable anyways...that has been proven for 4 years) The Dems need to keep their optics clear on this for the foreseeable future. Trump and his clowns are baiting them, hoping to draw them into the fight to hurt their numbers as much as he is hurting his own. More investigations in the hopes of tarnishing The Administration is the fight he wants. And lets be clear that is exactly what will happen here. (and again no one of any value, even from a private business will be held accountable)

Congress has ways of doing oversight without making into a whole big ordeal. That should be what they do for the time being. If in June we have seen the worst of it and the country is shifting back into normalcy a bit THEN you can look into this deeper. (and do way more damage) Doing it while much of the country is homebound over this though will look dumb and will just play further into Trump's "They are out to get me!" rhetoric. Right now he looks like a fool saying that stuff, he wont if they literally are out to get him

Note: My objection is not because I dont think they should all fry and Congress shouldnt hang them in the town square. My objection is none of that will happen and the Dems will end up with egg on their face if they do this while half the country is home bound and unemployed.

But yes reasonable people like us can agree to disagree

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

I think the more upscale sit-down restaurants that depend heavily on liquor sales are just trying to burn up what's left of their inventory before they shut down. There's a couple here in my town that are slowly eliminating items from their GrubHub/DoorDash/UberEats menus as they run out of them, and I figure in about another week they will probably both close.

I really wish MN would allow alcohol sales with delivery but considering we still can’t sell alcohol in grocery stores I’m sure it won’t be allowed

 

[Handyman]

Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

The only way to deal with these criminals is afterwards. I am fine with not going anywhere near an investigation until the pandemic is contained. However we cannot repeat the mistakes of 1977, 1993 and 2009. If we can pry this criminal conspiracy away from the levers of power we have to follow it up with thorough investigations, trials, convictions, and punishments.

Yeah. The GOP right now are the "Moral Hazard" and cant let it fester any longer. When this is over we need to show why the crap they are pulling is killing the country. They wont change until they are forced to, and well, the Dems never do really force them to. (nor do the voters)

The way things are trending the Dems wont be prevented from holding everyone to account...so friggin do it this time. And do it out in the open for the world to see. Make sure every voter sees what really happened.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

Yeah. The GOP right now are the "Moral Hazard" and cant let it fester any longer. When this is over we need to show why the crap they are pulling is killing the country. They wont change until they are forced to, and well, the Dems never do really force them to. (nor do the voters)

The way things are trending the Dems wont be prevented from holding everyone to account...so friggin do it this time. And do it out in the open for the world to see. Make sure every voter sees what really happened.

Biden will not be inclined to pursue it. So we need somebody like Schiff really pushing it. Somebody who understands as long as we don't fumigate the rats they'll Keep. Coming. Back.

Even if it putting these people in prison was literally all the next administration and Congress accomplished, it would be a huge step forward, because these are the people who prevent any progress in this country. You have to fix the flat tire first before you can do any driving.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

Kruse is wrong too. If they start an commission now it will be a PR disaster a month from now. Investigating is one thing, having a commission or any sort of hearings in the midst of a pandemic will just look awful. The earliest they should even talk about it is once things start to open up a bit. (whenever the hell that is)

This isnt about what is right and wrong, because we all know who should hang over this. Every time the Dems hold another hearing into something this administration does though it backfires in the end and this will too. (not to mention it isnt like they will be able to hold anyone accountable anyways...that has been proven for 4 years) The Dems need to keep their optics clear on this for the foreseeable future. Trump and his clowns are baiting them, hoping to draw them into the fight to hurt their numbers as much as he is hurting his own. More investigations in the hopes of tarnishing The Administration is the fight he wants. And lets be clear that is exactly what will happen here. (and again no one of any value, even from a private business will be held accountable)

Congress has ways of doing oversight without making into a whole big ordeal. That should be what they do for the time being. If in June we have seen the worst of it and the country is shifting back into normalcy a bit THEN you can look into this deeper. (and do way more damage) Doing it while much of the country is homebound over this though will look dumb and will just play further into Trump's "They are out to get me!" rhetoric. Right now he looks like a fool saying that stuff, he wont if they literally are out to get him

Note: My objection is not because I dont think they should all fry and Congress shouldnt hang them in the town square. My objection is none of that will happen and the Dems will end up with egg on their face if they do this while half the country is home bound and unemployed.

But yes reasonable people like us can agree to disagree

I tend to agree. Wait until the public has at least started to either:
1. Settle in with the new norms
2. Dust off the guillotines

 

[Handyman]

Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

CNBC's talking heads estimated Q4 as the upturn for the last week. When the Goldman Sachs outlook was read this morning, I'm pretty sure I heard audible laughter from the hosts.

Q4 I can buy if things open up early enough but right now I am still doubting it. While the news of faster tests is a positive in truth those tests still need to be massed produced and they arent for mass use so you still are going to have the issue of lags in testing and massive backlogs. They might help get the sports leagues running in June or July but that wont help employment much since no one will be allowed at the games. (and I dont even think that will help much anyways because if one player on a team tests positive the whole thing could burn to the ground again)

See the problem is that we have no idea what else is going to shut down and we dont know how long it will take to get the machine churning again. People arent just gonna start traveling and going to movies a week after things get under control. There is going to be weeks and months of slowly getting back to the way things were. (if they do at all) People are going to be hard up for money too so they arent just going to throw it around because now they arent at as high a risk as they were before.

April will be very telling.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

I tend to agree. Wait until the public has at least started to either:
1. Settle in with the new norms
2. Dust off the guillotines

And I wasn’t arguing for it now. August or so could work. I just don’t like saying it can’t start for nearly a year - we don’t know that yet

 

[Handyman]

Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

I really wish MN would allow alcohol sales with delivery but considering we still can’t sell alcohol in grocery stores I’m sure it won’t be allowed

We didnt have Sunday liquor sales until a few years ago...it would take years before we could get that passed. Honestly I am not even sure if I like the idea of it outside of saving business in the short term.

It is a weird thing I never even considered before now ya know.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

And I wasn’t arguing for it now. August or so could work. I just don’t like saying it can’t start for nearly a year - we don’t know that yet

I think this will still be burning in August: a wave where each month we get a new set of 4 or 5 states. Like a reality show.

Plus you know we will get false starts where people think it's over and come back out and then boom, sorry, it was hiding. That's what happened to San Francisco in 1918. It survived the second deadly wave because the city fathers were smart. But there was an Indian Summer of no deaths. The people went back to normal. And the third wave caught them full blast -- they were just lucky because while the that mutation was just as contagious it was much less lethal.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

And I wasn’t arguing for it now. August or so could work. I just don’t like saying it can’t start for nearly a year - we don’t know that yet

But it wont have any teeth until after Trump is out of office. Sure it will get lots of headlines but Schiff couldnt get people to cooperate with Impeachment there is no way he will get anyone to cooperate here either. The only chance any justice is truly done is if he has the full weight of the DOJ behind him. That wont happen when the head of the DOJ tells us every day how sweet Trump's *** smells at a press conference.

That is why Schiff is saying what he is saying. Any investigation and commission under the current administration goes nowhere. The GOP will obfuscate and hide and probably then hold a hearing on Hunter Biden or Benghazi again just for funzies.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

But it wont have any teeth until after Trump is out of office. Sure it will get lots of headlines but Schiff couldnt get people to cooperate with Impeachment there is no way he will get anyone to cooperate here either. The only chance any justice is truly done is if he has the full weight of the DOJ behind him. That wont happen when the head of the DOJ tells us every day how sweet Trump's *** smells at a press conference.

That is why Schiff is saying what he is saying. Any investigation and commission under the current administration goes nowhere. The GOP will obfuscate and hide and probably then hold a hearing on Hunter Biden or Benghazi again just for funzies.

Exactly so. Quoted for metaphysical truth.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

CNBC's talking heads estimated Q4 as the upturn for the last week. When the Goldman Sachs outlook was read this morning, I'm pretty sure I heard audible laughter from the hosts.


Also, Hovey, I misspoke on the reply to F2B&G. Michigan will easily double next week. Nationally... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I think it's going to be another two mil.


Raceboarder: Saving both to my Google Maps, but would most likely visit the Yorkville location if I get out for a drive this weekend and wanna grab lunch. Been stopping by once a week for tacos at a fantastic place super close to my house: Jefa Tacos in Aurora.

Mookie read an outlook from blackrock’s Larry fink today. They are thinking 8-10 weeks until the Wuhan virus clears (4-5 weeks up the curve, 4-5 weeks down the curve). Only then will the economy get to chug. So if things are only going to be turning ‘on’ in the 3rd qtr it will be tough to see a hardy recovery there. Most hopefully bet is 4th with Christmas buying and renewed optimism—— and if there is a vaccination to protect us from repeating history

Larry also opined cinemas are dead to rights. Movie makers will look to immediate streaming and bank that. Nobody will head out to the movies anymore... which is hard to swallow cause there is something cool about seeing stuff on a big screen. Couch isn’t the same, even with a 60incher

 

[Kepler]

Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

Mookie read an outlook from blackrock’s Larry fink today. They are thinking 8-10 weeks until the Wuhan virus clears

I have some bad news for you and Larry.

<img src="https://images.medicinenet.com/images/newsletter/specialty/spanish-flu-coronavirus.jpg" height=500>

Note that the entire US is not tracking at once -- it's going to be a series of those curves, each of which takes about 10 weeks. This is going to last 30-50 weeks.

Finance people should stay away from subjects where actual intelligence is needed like medicine and science. Stick to the booby prize of making money. That's what we give those twats to keep them busy.

 

[aparch]

Mookie read an outlook from blackrock’s Larry fink today. They are thinking 8-10 weeks until the Wuhan virus clears (4-5 weeks up the curve, 4-5 weeks down the curve). Only then will the economy get to chug. So if things are only going to be turning ‘on’ in the 3rd qtr it will be tough to see a hardy recovery there. Most hopefully bet is 4th with Christmas buying and renewed optimism—— and if there is a vaccination to protect us from repeating history

Larry also opined cinemas are dead to rights. Movie makers will look to immediate streaming and bank that. Nobody will head out to the movies anymore... which is hard to swallow cause there is something cool about seeing stuff on a big screen. Couch isn’t the same, even with a 60incher

I agree with the assessments (and Larry seems to echo what CNBC guests have repeatedly stated (but they back it up with "but even we don't know."). And we're not getting a vaccine until Q4 or Q1-2021.

As for theaters, this assessment is totally accurate. Big theaters are dead despite seeing it with a group of people. What I can see making headway are smaller "boutique" theaters becoming more mainstream, as long as they have stringent cleaning routines. Costs of that might outweigh the income though.

It was mentioned that streaming services might charge a little bit more to be the host of these first run movies. Disney releasing tent-pole blockbusters on a $5.99/mo service? No. Charging $15/mo for Disney+ with those tentpole movies premiering regularly? Absolutely.