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Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

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Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

dxmnkd316 said:
Recession if we’re lucky.
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I was thinking Depression II, worst case. We've spent the last few years on stressing "buying local," and those are the first businesses that will be hit by this.
 
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

The correction was going to happen...the disease pushed it up though and amplified it to be sure. This downturn is going to last well into 2021.
 
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

Handyman said:
The correction was going to happen...the disease pushed it up though and amplified it to be sure. This downturn is going to last well into 2021.
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Could be. Depends on how businesses, especially large businesses, react. If they shed employees like 08, this could be a long recovery. If they all suck it up and take a short term hit instead trying to save a few pennies per share and keep people employed, we might be able to recover quicker.

When businesses just start sloughing employees, spending stops, and so does the economy. It’s why a UBI really starts to make sense.
 
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

dxmnkd316 said:
Could be. Depends on how businesses, especially large businesses, react. If they shed employees like 08, this could be a long recovery. If they all suck it up and take a short term hit instead trying to save a few pennies per share and keep people employed, we might be able to recover quicker.

When businesses just start sloughing employees, spending stops, and so does the economy. It’s why a UBI really starts to make sense.
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Socialism. Bad. Bailout the corporations. The money will trickle down.
 
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

dxmnkd316 said:
Could be. Depends on how businesses, especially large businesses, react. If they shed employees like 08, this could be a long recovery. If they all suck it up and take a short term hit instead trying to save a few pennies per share and keep people employed, we might be able to recover quicker.

When businesses just start sloughing employees, spending stops, and so does the economy. It’s why a UBI really starts to make sense.
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The last recession, my company asked employees to take "voluntary time off," which usually meant anywhere from a couple hours to a full day. They didn't want to lay off people. The employees worked it out, since for example all veteran machine drivers couldn't take off at the same time. Everyone kept their job, and when the economy recovered, we were still whole.
 
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

dxmnkd316 said:
Could be. Depends on how businesses, especially large businesses, react. If they shed employees like 08, this could be a long recovery. If they all suck it up and take a short term hit instead trying to save a few pennies per share and keep people employed, we might be able to recover quicker.

When businesses just start sloughing employees, spending stops, and so does the economy. It’s why a UBI really starts to make sense.
Click to expand...

Bear Markets dont re-correct in short order. Any chance this was going to be a short term issue died when Trump's CEO parade barely made a dent. We havent seen the bottom yet...
 
dxmnkd316 said:
...If they all suck it up and take a short term hit instead trying to save a few pennies per share and keep people employed, we might be able to recover quicker.
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CNBC analysts mentioned that last Friday. Jim Kramer emphasised the point that the best companies will be the ones that put their people ahead of shareholders for once.


Both Friday and today, all their best guesses were looking at Q4 2020 or Q1 2021 being the first up quarters.
 
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

I’ve seen GDP estimates that this might only impact Q2. But it’s going to be a ****ing huge negative number.

But honestly, no one knows a dam thing.
 
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

Markets doing their thing today. Dow up 4%, S&P up 5%.

Talk of a bailout for the airline industry (:rolleyes:). That's going to go great when they survive this and then they realize that everyone is broke and can't afford to travel.

Honestly surprised that Trump isn't touting giving everyone two free round trip airline tickets as an economic stimulus.
 
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Very good piece by <a href="https://twitter.com/superwuster?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@superwuster</a>, on what should be the terms for the inevitable upcoming bailout of the airlines. <a href="https://t.co/CY68EyDRQi">https://t.co/CY68EyDRQi</a> <a href="https://t.co/Cx8GLs3ndY">pic.twitter.com/Cx8GLs3ndY</a></p>— James Fallows (@JamesFallows) <a href="https://twitter.com/JamesFallows/status/1239657406184820736?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 16, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

I make no claims on the veracity of the following, but this was shared elsewhere:

I'll proffer you an option.

1) Trade options. If you have the means to self-direct your retirement accounts and you can upgrade your accounts to be able to trade options, then you can buy what are called "leaps". So you buy a call option whose contract expiration is 1-2 years out. You buy it a little bit out of the money (so above the current price) and then when that stock or ETF rebounds you can trade the contract away and make almost as much as if you had held the shares in the first place. If that stock or ETF doesn't rebound, then you are just out the slight amount of money you paid for the contract.

It's about creating synthetic trading leverage without having to put all your cash at risk. Yes it sounds incredibly risky, and it can be, but if you learn how it works, DO NOT use margin to over-leverage, and you have some diversification to your strategy, you will be successful in the long run. You MAY not necessarily get the full return of the market at large in the "best years", but you will have capped downside risk for times like this. So in the long run you are doing better. I wish I had learned about options trading sooner, or rather, had the patience to learn it sooner.

The part I like most about options is that when I have confidently placed a trade, especially a leap (in excess of 1 year before expiration) I don't have to worry or watch it closely. I can check back in a few months later, maybe the dynamics have changed and it's worth holding the option a little longer or trading it for profit... Trading actual shares is scary and I did that for the last 4 years... It hasn't been pretty for me on my current holdings this past month, but I've freed up a little cash to buy options representing the actual shares I would've bought otherwise and I didn't have to put all my money on the table to partake in the action of the stock. When there is a rebound I'm now positioned to get the gains as if I had purchased those additional shares, but if for some reason it doesn't? Well then only half my account (the shares I still have for collecting the dividends) will stay depressed, the rest will be in cash still.

2) Learn transferable digital skills. The economy is changing and you might have to make a change.

3) The time to develop "delayed gratification" or adjusting your living standards is NOW not later. Maybe watching sports 5-6 days/week is no longer your thing because cable/streaming costs too much. Being able to learn to let go of the things that will change and may never come back is now. That will make you emotionally resilient and ready to respond to opportunities that come your way. Wallowing makes people miss out because they are too wrapped up emotionally to see the potential benefits of something new in front of them.
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Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

I don't even have to watch his press conferences. I just watch my IRA. When he speaks it goes down, when he lets someone else talk it rebounds slightly. He's like a human circuit breaker.
 
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

BTW, speculation is that since Disney stock has cratered (40% in a couple weeks) Apple is going to buy the company.
 
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

ticapnews said:
BTW, speculation is that since Disney stock has cratered (40% in a couple weeks) Apple is going to buy the company.
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Well that's one way to boost their stupid streaming AppleTV+ product... by adding the entire Disney+ catalog. :D
 
aparch said:
Markets doing their thing today. Dow up 4%, S&P up 5%.

Talk of a bailout for the airline industry (:rolleyes:). That's going to go great when they survive this and then they realize that everyone is broke and can't afford to travel.

Honestly surprised that Trump isn't touting giving everyone two free round trip airline tickets as an economic stimulus.
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We will all get a voucher for free breakfast at a Trump hotel.
 
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

the voucher for your ****ty $19.99 breakfast buffet requires spending the night in a $400 hotel room.
 
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