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Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

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Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

dxmnkd316 said:
Didn't pass. 299-56(nay) but didn't get the necessary majority. I'm lost.

Now they're trading sharp jabs.
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Labour abstained.

They needed 67% of the Parliament to vote in favor. That would be about 434 I believe.

Labour wants to make sure the law that was just passed goes through the House of Lords and the queen gives royal assent before Parliament is dissolved. As stated previously, once they vote for a new election the legislative branch no longer exists. If the House of Lords finds a technicality to reject the law or Boris is somehow able to convince the queen to deny royal assent there is no way to fix it. This guarantees Parliament will still be in session. After the queen gives her assent - probably the middle of next week - there will be another vote on a new election 15 October and it will sail through.

dxmnkd316 said:
So no more bills tonight right?
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Correct. Now the MPs trample each other to get to a microphone to appear on the local news.
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

ticapnews said:
Labour abstained.

They needed 67% of the Parliament to vote in favor. That would be about 434 I believe.

Labour wants to make sure the law that was just passed goes through the House of Lords and the queen gives royal assent before Parliament is dissolved. As stated previously, once they vote for a new election the legislative branch no longer exists. If the House of Lords finds a technicality to reject the law or Boris is somehow able to convince the queen to deny royal assent there is no way to fix it. This guarantees Parliament will still be in session. After the queen gives her assent - probably the middle of next week - there will be another vote on a new election 15 October and it will sail through.
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Thanks. I listened to the Beeb all day and nobody made this simple point. It goes from making no sense to being obvious. Thanks again.
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Kepler said:
Thanks. I listened to the Beeb all day and nobody made this simple point. It goes from making no sense to being obvious. Thanks again.
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The same with a couple of Sky News commentators. That's what Boris is counting on - that people don't understand and just see Labour standing in the way of an election. Media need to do a better job educating people.

Labour and the Lib Dems are not blocking a vote. They are being good stewards of Democracy. One might wonder why Boris and his Tories are not...
 
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Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

A few updates:

An important addendum to the new law. As I said, it requires Boris Johnson on 19 October to request in writing an extension until 31 January, 2020. Further, it requires that if the EU propose a separate date the matter will be voted on in Parliament within 48 hours.

Speculation (and that's all it is for now) is that if Boris Johnson is maneuvered into having to write that letter it is the end for him. The Brexit Party will then contest the elections and that will kill the Tories. England will then have four (in some places five) legitimate candidates. No one can possibly predict yet how that will play out. Especially with an election (maybe) weeks away.

There are members of the Shadow Cabinet who are trying to get Corbyn not to support a new election until after the 31 October deadline, regardless of what happens with this law, because they do not trust Boris to follow the law and once a new election is called there is no turning back.

Also, there may not be time to get a vote for a new election anyway, depending on when Boris decides to prorogue Parliament. It is set to start Tuesday. The court decision was inconclusive. The judge said the issue of prorogation was political, not judicial, so he could not rule on the matter. It is likely the higher court will also punt.

This whole thing is fascinating for an American political junkie to watch. You couldn't write a drama like this because no one would believe it.
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Brexit has happened. Well, more of a Joxit.

It’s been an honour to represent Orpington for 9 years & to serve as a minister under three PMs. In recent weeks I’ve been torn between family loyalty and the national interest - it’s an unresolvable tension & time for others to take on my roles as MP & Minister.
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Jo Johnson is the younger brother of Boris Johnson...
 
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Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

The Tory party has announced it will not seek to delay the bill in the House of Lords this weekend. The plan was to try to add as many amendments as possible to slow the bill's progress until BoJo could prorogue Parliament next week. That effort was destined to fail.

That means the HoL will pass the bill, it will return for a confirmation vote on Monday then proceed to Buckingham Palace to get the royal assent.

Then the question of a new election will return.
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

If you thought Brexit was a mess, you ain't seen nothing yet.

First of all, BoJo cannot simply call for a new election. He already did that this session. You cannot present the same bill to parliament twice in the same session without making changes. Theresa May got around that with her Brexit plan by doing some minor and irrelevant tweaking. BoJo can't do that, so he needs another way to call an election.

Even if he does, it will fail. Corbyn has been convinced not to dissolve parliament until after 31 October. The earliest the UK could hold elections would be the last week of November. That is horrible news for BoJo. He would have the choice of illegally taking the UK out without a deal, facing the electorate as a lawbreaker and having the election just as - everyone but the rosiest of Brexiteers say - the negative effects of Brexit are felt. Or he can let 31 October pass and the UK remains in Europe which will trigger the Brexit Party to contest the election. That has the potential to devastate the Tories.

But that strategy is not without risk for Labour. Delaying the election could anger the electorate. There is also a very real possibility that the outcome of an election with so many viable parties leads not to a Labour majority and Jeremy Corbyn as PM but a Brexit majority and Nigel Farage as PM. It could also lead to a hung parliament, which as we've seen is a disaster.

The fireworks from Westminster are just getting started. Although the next five weeks will be quiet since parliament will be prorogued.
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

ticapnews said:
If you thought Brexit was a mess, you ain't seen nothing yet.

First of all, BoJo cannot simply call for a new election. He already did that this session. You cannot present the same bill to parliament twice in the same session without making changes. Theresa May got around that with her Brexit plan by doing some minor and irrelevant tweaking. BoJo can't do that, so he needs another way to call an election.

Even if he does, it will fail. Corbyn has been convinced not to dissolve parliament until after 31 October. The earliest the UK could hold elections would be the last week of November. That is horrible news for BoJo. He would have the choice of illegally taking the UK out without a deal, facing the electorate as a lawbreaker and having the election just as - everyone but the rosiest of Brexiteers say - the negative effects of Brexit are felt. Or he can let 31 October pass and the UK remains in Europe which will trigger the Brexit Party to contest the election. That has the potential to devastate the Tories.

But that strategy is not without risk for Labour. Delaying the election could anger the electorate. There is also a very real possibility that the outcome of an election with so many viable parties leads not to a Labour majority and Jeremy Corbyn as PM but a Brexit majority and Nigel Farage as PM. It could also lead to a hung parliament, which as we've seen is a disaster.

The fireworks from Westminster are just getting started. Although the next five weeks will be quiet since parliament will be prorogued.
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So in other words, Pootie's plan to cause anarchy in the UK is still in good shape.
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

ticapnews said:
He would have the choice of illegally taking the UK out without a deal
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I don't quite follow this. I assume it's illegal because of the law that just passed that broke the ruling majority. But isn't it a little like passing a law against dying? You do what you can to prevent it, but if it's gonna happen...
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Kepler said:
Did Russia do Brexit too, or did they just kind of fall into luck, there?
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Cambridge Analytica. As much as certain people like to point out the referendum results, the truth is the British version of the FEC said the election would have been voided except it was a non-binding referendum, so technically it had no authority to do so. Frankly the Election Commission is astonished government are going through with it.

Kepler said:
I don't quite follow this. I assume it's illegal because of the law that just passed that broke the ruling majority. But isn't it a little like passing a law against dying? You do what you can to prevent it, but if it's gonna happen...
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It's been illegal. This is just the latest bill to say so. Parliament passed a law long ago to make a no-deal Brexit illegal. Further, as I've been pointing out, leaving the EU without a deal puts England in direct violation of the Good Friday Agreement and makes them a rogue state. This isn't just my opinion. Members of the EU have used those words - rogue state - to describe England if no-deal happens.

I'm watching a discussion on Channel 4 in Britain where an expert is saying that if 19 October comes and goes and BoJo has broken the law by refusing to ask the EU for an extension, Queen Elizabeth might actually sack him. That would bring up a whole host of issues. This descent into madness is amazing spectacle but simultaneously horrifying to witness.
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

The queen isn’t going to sack him. She’s going to stay out of it, even if it hurts England, as that family is nothing if not steeped in conservative tradition
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
The queen isn’t going to sack him. She’s going to stay out of it, even if it hurts England, as that family is nothing if not steeped in conservative tradition
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Most likely, but BoJo has already broken tradition by involving the monarch in politics by asking her to prorogue parliament. If he breaks the law it is her royal prerogative (some might argue her duty) to remove him from office. The big problem for her would be who to name in his place. There is no unifying force who could 'command the confidence of the House' so she'd be stuck. The best she could do is dissolve parliament and demand new elections, but who would lead in the meantime? And what would Europe (and the rest of the world) say about this? I would have said it was unfathomable even a few months ago, but now? The Chinese curse has come true. We do live in interesting times.
 
ticapnews said:
Most likely, but BoJo has already broken tradition by involving the monarch in politics by asking her to prorogue parliament. If he breaks the law it is her royal prerogative (some might argue her duty) to remove him from office. The big problem for her would be who to name in his place. There is no unifying force who could 'command the confidence of the House' so she'd be stuck. The best she could do is dissolve parliament and demand new elections, but who would lead in the meantime? And what would Europe (and the rest of the world) say about this? I would have said it was unfathomable even a few months ago, but now? The Chinese curse has come true. We do live in interesting times.
Click to expand...
The best move for The Queen is to die and make Charles deal with this s-.
 
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