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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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Kepler said:
Obsessing over the Veep and fault finding with whoever is chosen is falling into a trap. To quote an esteemed peer, it's the "Tiger Beat on the Potomac" gimmick of political gossip just to roil the waters and have something to kvetch about.

It's inventing agita for its own sake.

Any of the finalists are fine choices. Whichever of the cheerleaders you go home with, be happy.
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Except Karen Bass. Pro Castro and Scientology is no.
 
Kepler said:
Yes, Harris is TERRIBLE choice for a Republican running mate.

A black woman is going to be toxic with racists and misogynists. We are going to lose the conservative vote. Gee whiz.
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She ran in the Democratic primary.

I'm not saying this is a mean way, but I'm not sure I have ever not understood one of your takes more than this. Do you know something about Rice and that is the reason?
 
Drew S. said:
She ran in the Democratic primary.

I'm not saying this is a mean way, but I'm not sure I have ever not understood one of your takes more than this. Do you know something about Rice and that is the reason?
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No, I think Rice is great. But every politician is an opportunist. Obama, who I think it the best thing to happen to American politics since MLK, is a fierce opportunist. Just imagine the ego and the drive and the unhealthy psychology of somebody willing to take that job. In all honesty, nobody with a mentality within normal bounds would tolerate it. It's like being America's garbage man.
 
Not-So-Breitbart claiming Dems are playing 'war games' and planning for the threat of a west coast secession in the event the election results are contested. :-D
 
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1290338790654042112

"BREAKING: New York prosecutor seeking President Trump's tax returns cites reports of 'protracted criminal conduct' at the Trump Organization."

Manhattan prosecutor trying to get President Donald Trump’s tax returns told a judge Monday that he was justified in demanding them, citing public reports of “extensive and protracted criminal conduct at the Trump Organization.”

Trump’s lawyers last month said the grand jury subpoena for the tax returns was issued in bad faith and amounted to harassment of the president.

Manhattan District Attorney District Attorney Cyrus R. Vance, Jr. is seeking eight years of the Republican president’s personal and corporate tax records, but has disclosed little about what prompted him to request the records, other than part of the investigation is related to payoffs made to women to keep them quiet about alleged affairs with Trump.

In a court filing Monday, though, attorneys for Vance said Trump’s arguments that the subpoena was too broad stemmed from “the false premise” that the probe was limited to so-called “hush-money” payments.
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bronconick said:
Except Karen Bass. Pro Castro and Scientology is no.
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Also I didn't realize she's 66 years old and has never faced the scrutiny of a national campaign. A 77 year old and a 66 year old ticket doesn't feel right.

Biden doesn't need a Hail Mary. A safe pick like Harris will do the trick. I'd prefer Abrams as VP but I would have preferred Warren as the nominee as well. No worries as I'm happy to support Biden and whoever he chooses. Harris is probably best suited to step right in given her background as senator and AG of California.
 
538.com shows Biden with a tiny lead in Texas and has now for the last week or so. What were the polls like for Clinton in Texas 3 months before the 2016 election? Now I do not believe Biden will win in Texas. Instead I believe it will be ground zero for republican attempts to suppress the vote. But if the polls are that tight there 90 days before the election, that tells me that if we were not a third world when it comes to our elections Biden would probably win at least 35 states and at least 448 EC votes.

Not only can trump not win a fair election, he couldn't even be competitive in a fair election. it will take an unprecedented amount of voter suppression to keep Biden anywhere near 300 EC votes.
 
WeAreNDHockey said:
538.com shows Biden with a tiny lead in Texas and has now for the last week or so. What were the polls like for Clinton in Texas 3 months before the 2016 election? Now I do not believe Biden will win in Texas. Instead I believe it will be ground zero for republican attempts to suppress the vote. But if the polls are that tight there 90 days before the election, that tells me that if we were not a third world when it comes to our elections Biden would probably win at least 35 states and at least 448 EC votes.

Not only can trump not win a fair election, he couldn't even be competitive in a fair election. it will take an unprecedented amount of voter suppression to keep Biden anywhere near 300 EC votes.
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
 
I was curious about incumbents losing, some interesting numbers jumped out:
  1. It's happened ten times
  2. In the most recent four (Bush 92, Carter 80, Hoover 1932, Taft 1912), the incumbent lost an astonishing 248 or more EVs.
    1. Bush: 426->168 = 60.6% loss
    2. Carter: 297->49 = 83.5% loss
    3. Ford: N/A
    4. Hoover: 444->59 = 86.7% loss
    5. Taft: 321->8 = 97.5% loss
    6. Harrison (1892): 233->145 = 37.8% loss
    7. Cleveland (1888): 219->168 = 23.3% loss
      1. Cleveland & Harrison were funny because it was incumbent Cleveland who lost to Harrison in 1888 and incumbent Harrison who lost to Cleveland in 1892. Bizarre.
    8. Van Buren (1840): 170->60 = 64.7% loss
    9. John Quincy Adams (1828): 84->89*
      1. He didn't actually win the EC in 1824, he was one of four >30.
    10. John Adams (1800): 71->65 = 8% loss
  3. Presidents that won less than 56.5% of the EV went 2*-2 (Bush*, Nixon & Cleveland, Carter)
I find it fairly amazing that a president who won 84% of the EC could lose 87% of those votes. It's also incredible to me that the swing has been as substantial as it was in five of those. For Trump to hit the same level levels of rebuke, he'd need to lose Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Texas, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine (2),Nebraska (1), Montana to even get to HW's losses.

Popular vote:
  1. Bush: 7M margin ->5.8M loss = 12.88M swing = 12.4% of turnout
  2. Carter: 1.7M -> 8.4M = 10.1M = 11.7%
  3. Ford: N/A
  4. Hoover: 6.4M -> 7.1M = 13.5M = 34%!!!
  5. Taft: 1.3M -> 2.2M = 3.4M = 22.9%
  6. Harrison (1892): -91k* -> 363k
  7. Cleveland (1888): 58k -> -91k*
  8. Van Buren (1840): 213k -> 146k = 359k = 14.9%
  9. John Quincy Adams (1828): -38k* ->141k
If 9-15% margin swing are typical, we're looking at 14.4M - 22.1M margin. Turnout wasn't really a factor in most. So call it 71.5 million to 57.1 million just to get to that 14.4M margin. That would be the largest vote total every by a significant margin (2M) and the lowest since 2000 (not adjusted)

I don't see either the EC or popular vote swing we would typically see in an incumbent losing. Interesting though.
 
unofan said:
Yeah, but 1) Hillary never had a lead as big as Biden currently has, and 2) Trump filled his inside straight on the river. Shiat happens.

Could he do it again? Sure, but it's even less likelier today than it was 4 years ago.
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Don't disagree, in fact, we're both saying the same thing. I just wanted to post the resource he was looking for.
 
So here's a summarized conversation I just read from one of my old high school classmates on Facebook:

Classmate: "I'm sad I have to vote for Biden because he sucks, just less than Trump. I'm planning to punish the DNC for making me feel bad by voting straight Republican down ticket"
Random other person: "Vote third party instead, because Biden could always lose and your vote for him would be just as wasted."
Classmate: "I know, I'm not pretending my vote even matters because Iowa isn't a swing state."
Rando: "Then vote third party!"
Classmate: "Honestly don't even know why I'm bothering to request an absentee ballot."
Rando: "Can't fault you there."

There aren't enough Picard facepalm gifs in the world to respond to that. And yes, he's a senior engineer at Rockwell Collins. How'd you guess?
 
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