USCHO Fan Forum
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
-
The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.
Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?
- Thread starter Kepler
- Start date
- Status
French Rage
NICKERSON HAS [CENSORED]
What is the difference between the "Lying" Democrat and the "Lyin'" Democrat?
FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
Kepler
Cornell Big Red
Liked.
WeAreNDHockey
\../ \../
The Economist is currently forecasting Biden with a 5/6 chance to win the electoral college. Their model is showing him with a sure or very likely win in states totaling 245 electoral college votes and another 63 at 75% likely or better. Throw in Arizona and North Carolina (60% chance or better of winning) and Biden ends up with 334 EC votes.
Keeping trump below 200 EC votes will be hard unless Biden could somehow pull off all those likely or better states and grab Ohio. If voter suppression wasn't an issue I believe he'd end up close to where the upper region of their forecast is, which is 412. Since we will be seeing that in a number of states, he won't be anywhere near. That voter suppression might also be what costs the democrats a realistic shot at the senate.
Keeping trump below 200 EC votes will be hard unless Biden could somehow pull off all those likely or better states and grab Ohio. If voter suppression wasn't an issue I believe he'd end up close to where the upper region of their forecast is, which is 412. Since we will be seeing that in a number of states, he won't be anywhere near. That voter suppression might also be what costs the democrats a realistic shot at the senate.
FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
No one has garnered more than 55% of the popular vote since Saint Ronnie walloped Mondale in '84. A Dem hasn't done it since LBJ crushed AuH2O in '64. Fck the polls and get out the vote.
Jimjamesak
Already insane, UAA making it worse
Kepler
Cornell Big Red
Plus, a Dem needs +6 points minimum to win given the flyover bias of the EC.
Kep this is nonsense and needlessly defeatist. Obama won comfortably with a 4 point margin in 2012. If a 2 point margin didn't get it done in 2016 we're looking at 3 points to feel pretty good about the EC. +6 is heading towards Obama in 2008 territory which wasn't exactly a nail biter....
I wouldn't call Kepler defeatist. To the contrary, he just wants to take no prisoners and will avoid false security like the plague. I think Kep understands the grunt work necessary to win this and will stress urgency until the final horn goes off. We haven't always done that.
Kepler
Cornell Big Red
I appreciate your words, and of course you are right. I ask a favor: please do not quote that poster when his trolling is directed at me. I have made a final assessment about the worth of that poster, after a decade of giving him the benefit of the doubt as a sincere actor. He is a bad actor and, especially with the new format, he does not exist for me unless people I do respect, like you, quote him.
There is only one way to deal with trolls.
FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
You know who else had it in the bag in mid-June and was up by double digits in the polls?
Kepler
Cornell Big Red
WeAreNDHockey
\../ \../
Mid-June? How about mid-October? An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released on October 16th gave her an 11 point lead. A Reuters poll published 8 days later showed her with a haul of better than 320 electoral college votes, and finally, an AP poll conducted just 12 days before the election had her winning by an astonishing 14 points. Polling was quite clearly flawed then and who knows what the state of it is just 4 years later.
In a free and fair election, Biden would win by a margin somewhere around what George Bush managed in 1988. This election is not gonna be free or fair. Our votes will be undercounted (and prevented outright) so we MUST turn out voters like never before. And that's without even making allowances for how awful democrats sometimes are at running their campaigns. Biden should win, but it is up to us to ensure he does win. Make a plan today about how you are going to vote, and make sure you help your friends and family make a similar plan. Vote early and volunteer to take people to the polls on election day.
FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
The Rust Belt was sewn up so airtight that she quit campaigning here and put the moves on Georgia and Arizona, which were statistically in-play. It was a historic victory. #psyche
People are confusing two different concepts. Saying we need to go balls to the wall and not be butthurt if our candidate isn't the Demn nominee is obvious and correct. Stating that we need a 6 plus vote margin to eek out a win is a big exaggeration. Drawing on the actual results of the past 2 elections the sweet spot seems to be 3 points which is far more attainable than greater than 6. Obama himself hit a bit over 7 in 2008 and that was about as big if a blowout as we're going to see in modern times.
psych
Well-known member
Yeah, I’m not sure how what you said was controversial. If we win by 6 in November, the Senate is likely ours, and we’ll gain more seats in the House, outside of the two pickups in NC, thanks to redistricting. Generic Congressional ballot currently has Dems up 8, and it’s been steady between 6-8 for a while now.
Kepler
Cornell Big Red
Except not really. People still can't really wrap their minds around 95% likelihood meaning one time in twenty it will go the other way. That's not inaccuracy and it's not a mistake. It's not even a fluke. It's probability.
The polling was fine. The strategy might actually not have been that silly. The US rolled snake eyes. It happens. Not every disaster has somebody to blame.
I hear ya. If I posted that rain is wet I can name at least 3 posters who'd jump on here and start arguing with me.
However I agree with your analysis. Regardless of Chump's current approval rating he'll get his 62M votes and 45-46 percent like Goopers usually do. Generally third parties (loonitarians, greens, etc) get 1-2 percent. A 6 point win means Biden netted about 52-53 percent which is Obama in 2008 and that sends Chump and Moscow Mitch packing for Russia. There's always the hope/possibility of an influx of new voters but as Bernie Sanders can and did attest, you can't rely on that happening.
- Status