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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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French Rage said:
While FL going the other way is never good, FL is very different than other states, so it is possible FL could break more from models than OH/PA/MI/WI/etc. We'll have to see.

For example, from the 538 blog:
Click to expand...

My wife says thanks for keeping me from chugging all of our hard liquor
 
Remember Fulton County GA (i.e. Atlanta) is running late on processing ballots due to a water pipe burst earlier today (no ballots were harmed). Could result in a blue shift at the very end....

Followup: ABC says 200K absentee ballots in GA arrived today, which will take longer to process.
 
WCCO (CBS in Minnesota) is showing Ellsworth, WI and there is a massive line and like an hour wait to vote.
 
Handyman said:
CBS has Biden way ahead in OH and I think the Post does as well...
Click to expand...

ABC said what sounded like good stuff too. A healthy early vote lead, and some western counties that went close for Trump last time have Biden leading now.

(Of course all of this "now" stuff never says if in takes into account how much of "now" is early versus today votes.)
 
WCCO says exit polling (I think in Minnesota but maybe the Midwest) says Biden was winning amongst people who didn't vote last election and White Working Class people.

[insert comment about exit polls here]
 
CBS says Minnesota leaning Biden.

CBS has Trump needing 55% of the outstanding vote in NC to catch Biden...

Texas is a toss up but they seem to think Trump will take it on the in person vote.
 
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In 2016MN too early to call was a big deal because exit polling was a better representation than this year which was basically useless
 
dxmnkd316 said:
This is such a mixed ****ing bag.
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Yes.
- The Miami-Dade thing sucks. But not all Hispanics are the same, and not all might be won over by Trump "Biden is a commie" message. And this bloc is specific to Florida.
- While it's not great that one swing state is trending redder than others, we don't know what that says about others, given FL's difference from other states mentioned above. But still, it's not good, just not necessarily bad.
- And remember, he doesn't need Florida, it's just how it acts as a bellweather.
- That said, some people are saying the AA vote is underwhelming this cycle. But one of the guys saying that was Chris Christie so take that for what it's worth.
- Biden is doing better in the suburbs and with college-educated than Hillary. The remaining swing states may lean on that more than FL.

So who knows.
 
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