Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

[dxmnkd316]

NYT has FL as 99% Trump

 

[First Time Long Time]

NYT has FL as 99% Trump

While CBS has it as a toss up

 

[Jimjamesak]

ABC: “Let’s look at exit polling...”

Nate Silver: “Exit polling likely to be flawed.”

 

[French Rage]

NYT has FL as 99% Trump

Only partial mail-in vote, though; expected to go D: https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/1323789560283828225

 

[aparch]

Checking in to see if I'm missing anything by not paying too much attention to talking heads trying to find airtime to fill... and it appears I have made a good decision in not watching.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Denton Cty TX went +8D relative to 2016

holy shit

 

[dxmnkd316]

Decision Desk called Florida

 

[dxmnkd316]

Biden is going to win Williamson TX
HOLY FUCK

trump won by 10 pts and is down by 3

 

[Jimjamesak]

Denton Cty TX went +8D relative to 2016

holy ****

Williamson County (Austin suburbs) seems to have flipped to Dem.

 

[dxmnkd316]

I don’t like that trump won Florida by 3.5 and is trending up in GA

 

[dxmnkd316]

Economist model has dropped to 85% Biden

 

[Handyman]

Jesus i work out for half an hour and all hell breaks loose!

Where is Denton County in TX?

 

[BassAle]

I’m going to throw up I think. Was hoping to pull out Georgia and Florida and put this to bed early.

 

[MinnesotaNorthStar]

Jesus i work put for half an hour and all hell breaks loose!

Where is Denton County in TX?

North of Fort Worth. It's where I-35 splits to 35E/W

 

[dxmnkd316]

NYT now has FL 95% trump, GA 86% trump, and NC 66% trump.

Fuck

 

[Kepler]

NYT now has FL 95% trump, GA 86% trump, and NC 66% trump.

****

It looks like NYT is the only engine actually trying to factor in the early to in person mixture. I've been screaming at CNN and MSNBC all night for that data.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Yeah. It’s no bueno what tv is doing.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Botecofer


The calling of VA w/o any song & dance tells me that the *** beating Biden delivered Trump here must be profound.




This means that the *** beating Trump is taking tonight among college-educated voters/college edu whites must be severe as VA is 6th in the nation in college grads

 

[Handyman]

So I saw someone post a tweet about Miami Dade...is that factored in to the NYT numbers?

 

[French Rage]

Botecofer


The calling of VA w/o any song & dance tells me that the *** beating Biden delivered Trump here must be profound.




This means that the *** beating Trump is taking tonight among college-educated voters/college edu whites must be severe as VA is 6th in the nation in college grads

While FL going the other way is never good, FL is very different than other states, so it is possible FL could break more from models than OH/PA/MI/WI/etc. We'll have to see.

For example, from the 538 blog:

With 80 percent reported, Biden is up 17 points so far in Johnson County, Kansas, a well-off suburban county to the west of Kansas City. Clinton lost it by 3 points in 2016. That would be a positive sign for Biden, since it might imply a strong performance in other Midwestern suburbs — although again, it’s hard to make too much of things unless we know the mix of early vs. Election Day votes and unless our prior reporting said to expect a red shift in Kansas.