BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

[devildog]

Re: BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

I haven't had any problems with it locking up for more than 2-3 seconds. I am on cable internet, so it might be connection speed.

That's hockey for you, two completely different games. Good to see some nice back and forth play, and NMU was so close to winning it in OT. Nothing can be done now except congratulate the team for coming alive, hitting hard and earning the points they did.

UNO just got swept by Lake State and we swept them earlier in the year. Gotta keep the intensity up.

I am on Dish Internet, so I guess I better check for clouds before I purchase. Rain moved in last night and my speed has been real slow since. I am pumped I get to see the Cats more often.
Not very impressed with the crowd. I saw a whole bunch of empty seats.

 

[Billy Blanks]

Re: BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

I am on Dish Internet, so I guess I better check for clouds before I purchase. Rain moved in last night and my speed has been real slow since. I am pumped I get to see the Cats more often.
Not very impressed with the crowd. I saw a whole bunch of empty seats.

Its been like that for the last few seasons. The fan support at games has been extremely lackluster. The tie last night pretty much killed our chances of making the NCAA's, as we are now 23rd in the PWR rankings.

 

[aparch]

Re: BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

Its been like that for the last few seasons. The fan support at games has been extremely lackluster. The tie last night pretty much killed our chances of making the NCAA's, as we are now 23rd in the PWR rankings.

We were approximately 23rd before the MTU series, so it's been a wash. There is still two months of hockey left, and LOTS of PWR wiggle room still.

 

[AnchorsAway]

Re: BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

I'm sure there were more on-ice drama than what we could see/hear from the stands. I saw at least one other incident where they shoved Stewie and nothing came from it (this was at the time of T.J.'s first grasping the facemask penalty).

So, I figure BGSU was frustrated and possibly NMU was running their mouths a bit. Those things together can really fan the flames. Long story short whatever lead up to it, it was uncalled for. I wish the refs just let Spady go and kicked No. 28's *** just to teach him a lesson.

It was definitely a cheap shot i can't deny that but i know Bobby Shea personally and trust me if Spady went after him it wouldn't have ended very well for Spady...Shea played 52 games with Green Bay in the USHL last year and got into 20 fights. Dropyourgloves.com judges his record in those fights at 10-3-2 (they usually dont render a decision if it isn't a clean fight.) He'll never be confused with Ray Bourque or Nick Lidstrom but if there is one thing that Bobby Shea is good at in hockey, trust me it's fighting.

 

[davyd83]

Re: BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

It was definitely a cheap shot i can't deny that but i know Bobby Shea personally and trust me if Spady went after him it wouldn't have ended very well for Spady...Shea played 52 games with Green Bay in the USHL last year and got into 20 fights. Dropyourgloves.com judges his record in those fights at 10-3-2 (they usually dont render a decision if it isn't a clean fight.) He'll never be confused with Ray Bourque or Nick Lidstrom but if there is one thing that Bobby Shea is good at in hockey, trust me it's fighting.

I agree that Shea is pretty tough. But Spady is quick and strong as an ox. It would have been a pretty good scrap.

 

[Billy Blanks]

Re: BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

We were approximately 23rd before the MTU series, so it's been a wash. There is still two months of hockey left, and LOTS of PWR wiggle room still.

Looking at the remainder of schedule...what would you think we'd need to do against Michigan, LSSU and Ferris? Minimum of 4 out of 6 wins to get an at large bid?

 

[DETBrass27]

Re: BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

Unless we can sweep two and split one of those series we might be on the fence for an at large bid depending on what the rest of the conference does. We are probably looking at winning the CCHA to get into the NCAA's.

 

[davyd83]

Re: BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

Looking at the remainder of schedule...what would you think we'd need to do against Michigan, LSSU and Ferris? Minimum of 4 out of 6 wins to get an at large bid?

The PWR is such a convoluted formula that it is impossible to say how many games you have to win and against whom. There is absolutely no way of knowing until all conference tourneys have ended.

 

[nmu_27]

Re: BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

Its been like that for the last few seasons. The fan support at games has been extremely lackluster.

I'm not sure of the numbers, but the students section looked pretty full for both games, more-so than for much of the beginning of the year, which surprises me against BG.

 

[dankthetank]

Re: BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

I am on Dish Internet, so I guess I better check for clouds before I purchase. Rain moved in last night and my speed has been real slow since. I am pumped I get to see the Cats more often.
Not very impressed with the crowd. I saw a whole bunch of empty seats.

An empty milk jug and some zip ties would help with that problem. That's what we use out in bush Alaska, and it work surprisingly well for keeping the rain off of the LMB.

 

[aparch]

Re: BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

Looking at the remainder of schedule...what would you think we'd need to do against Michigan, LSSU and Ferris? Minimum of 4 out of 6 wins to get an at large bid?

Win.


No seriously, we need to win outright those six, and let the dice roll on what those six teams do. The whole PWR is based on:
Your Record
Your Opponent's Record
Your Opponents Opponent's Record.

So do as much as you can and hope that those teams can help you out. The PWR gets shuffled up till the final game is played just before Selection Sunday.

http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/pwrdetails.php?teamid=15


*edit* Actually, some big help would be for Lake State to sweep Miami, and Bemidji split or do whatever would help make UNO and Duluth look better.

 

[NMU8405]

Re: BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

Win.


No seriously, we need to win outright those six, and let the dice roll on what those six teams do. The whole PWR is based on:
Your Record
Your Opponent's Record
Your Opponents Opponent's Record.

So do as much as you can and hope that those teams can help you out. The PWR gets shuffled up till the final game is played just before Selection Sunday.

http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/pwrdetails.php?teamid=15


*edit* Actually, some big help would be for Lake State to sweep Miami, and Bemidji split or do whatever would help make UNO and Duluth look better.

To be considered for an at large, you really need to be in the top 16, or even top 12 of the PWR to make it. NMU is sitting in 24th spot right now. If you look at the matchups lost to other TUCs, we really have a lot of ground to make up. Teams that we are close to winning a matchup with are: Colorado College (down 2 to 1), Cornell (down 1-0), Denver (down 2 to 1), Maine, (1-1), UMass-Lowell (1-1), Minnesota (2-2), North Dakota (2-1), and Yale (1-0).

Some of those are closable gaps, thanks to wins over Duluth and Minnesota. I dont believe we have any common opponents with Yale, so that is going to come down to RPI and record vs. TUCs. Even if we were to swing all 8 of those matchups, that puts us in 16th at the moment. The wild card to watch is our matchup against Lake State (currently down 3-1). With two head to head wins, that puts it up to 3-3, and Lake State hasnt played the min. number of games vs. TUCs to get points for that. When they do, they will lose that catagory to NMU (4-3 NMU).

This is so hard to predict though, as Aparch said, its based on how the opponents of your opponents do. So, teams we have beat, you want them to go out and beat good quality teams. Teams we lost too, you want them to go out and win (most times) so it makes your loss look better.

There is still a lot of shuffling to be had, Ferris sits at 5th, and I truely believe they wont hang around the top 10 much longer. Michigan is up there, and we still have games remaining against them, and the same can be said vs. Alaska (currently 21st). The 'Cats can only win games and hope for the best from everyone else.

One last note, every series except for the Western one, has large RPI single game swings. If we win, mega RPI points. If we lose, then we lose a lot of RPI points. If the cats lose more than 2 or 3 games the rest of the way, They dont have great chances.

 

[aparch]

Re: BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

Some of those are closable gaps, thanks to wins over Duluth and Minnesota. I dont believe we have any common opponents with Yale, so that is going to come down to RPI and record vs. TUCs. Even if we were to swing all 8 of those matchups, that puts us in 16th at the moment. The wild card to watch is our matchup against Lake State (currently down 3-1). With two head to head wins, that puts it up to 3-3, and Lake State hasnt played the min. number of games vs. TUCs to get points for that. When they do, they will lose that catagory to NMU (4-3 NMU).

AND... to add to the confusion, this is only what NMU *could* do. Fifty seven other NCAA Division 1 teams are in the same boat of: "What do I need to do to maintain/improve my Pair-wise Ranking?" NMU could do all the above, and still get screwed. Just like in 2002-2003. Fu**ing Ohio State (who we beat) and Minnesota Duluth.

 

[davyd83]

Re: BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

To be considered for an at large, you really need to be in the top 16, or even top 12 of the PWR to make it.

You have to be in the top 16. Take it up one notch for each auto-qualifier that comes from outside that group. Right now Bemidji is in the top 16, Air Force is not. So it would be Air Force plus the Top 15. Now, should there be any conference tourney upsets that would give a team outside that group and auto-bid, it further eliminates bubble teams. The bottom line is that is impossible to know, even on the final weekend of conference tourneys exactly what you must do to get in if you are a bubble team. For those who post that the ties this weekend pretty much killed our chances of getting an at large bid, they are flat out wrong. One component of the PWR is record vs Teams Under Consideration (TUCs), which are all teams with an RPI in the top 25. Now, NMU is 2-0-3 vs Notre Dame, Alaska and Minnesota. If those teams drop out of that top 25, it would hurt NMU. If NMU sweeps Alaska, it would almost be a wash on NMUs PWR, because you would lose those points for record vs TUCs, but gain for your overall RPI. Let's say NMU sweeps Alaska to go 2-0-2 against them, but bubble sitter Alaska drops a game to Anchorage, then stubles in the conference tourney and is eliminated in the first round and drops out of the top 25, or say something similar happens to Notre Dame or Minnesota. Those things could hurt NMU badly. One other thing about record vs TUCs, is that it only counts in the PWR if both teams have at least 10 games vs TUCs, so what you see in some comparisons is 0 points because the other team doesn't have the 10 TUC games yet.

There are four comparisons made. First is the RPI, which is 25% your win %, 21% your opponents win % and 54% your opponents opponents win%. The team with the better RPI gets a point. RPI is also the tie breaker if the number of points in the comparison is tied. The other comparisons are head to head record, one point for each win, record vs TUCs (with a minimum of 10 each) with one point to the team with the better winning % and no points awarded if at least one team doesnt have 10 TUC games. The final point goes for record vs common opponents.

There is no subjectivity in the process. It is done strictly on the numbers. The top 16 in the PWR, minus any spots for non-Top 16 automatic qualifiers.

And you thought the BCS was convoluted!

 

[nmupiccdiva]

Re: BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

You have to be in the top 16. Take it up one notch for each auto-qualifier that comes from outside that group. Right now Bemidji is in the top 16, Air Force is not. So it would be Air Force plus the Top 15. Now, should there be any conference tourney upsets that would give a team outside that group and auto-bid, it further eliminates bubble teams. The bottom line is that is impossible to know, even on the final weekend of conference tourneys exactly what you must do to get in if you are a bubble team. For those who post that the ties this weekend pretty much killed our chances of getting an at large bid, they are flat out wrong. One component of the PWR is record vs Teams Under Consideration (TUCs), which are all teams with an RPI in the top 25. Now, NMU is 2-0-3 vs Notre Dame, Alaska and Minnesota. If those teams drop out of that top 25, it would hurt NMU. If NMU sweeps Alaska, it would almost be a wash on NMUs PWR, because you would lose those points for record vs TUCs, but gain for your overall RPI. Let's say NMU sweeps Alaska to go 2-0-2 against them, but bubble sitter Alaska drops a game to Anchorage, then stubles in the conference tourney and is eliminated in the first round and drops out of the top 25, or say something similar happens to Notre Dame or Minnesota. Those things could hurt NMU badly. One other thing about record vs TUCs, is that it only counts in the PWR if both teams have at least 10 games vs TUCs, so what you see in some comparisons is 0 points because the other team doesn't have the 10 TUC games yet.

There are four comparisons made. First is the RPI, which is 25% your win %, 21% your opponents win % and 54% your opponents opponents win%. The team with the better RPI gets a point. RPI is also the tie breaker if the number of points in the comparison is tied. The other comparisons are head to head record, one point for each win, record vs TUCs (with a minimum of 10 each) with one point to the team with the better winning % and no points awarded if at least one team doesnt have 10 TUC games. The final point goes for record vs common opponents.

There is no subjectivity in the process. It is done strictly on the numbers. The top 16 in the PWR, minus any spots for non-Top 16 automatic qualifiers.

And you thought the BCS was convoluted!

Whatever happened to the straight forward "do good, don't suck, you're in" philosophy of playoffs?
I have an idea, let's get 7 more teams to join up, have all 64 teams qualify, and drag this sucker out for over a month in a 64-32-16-8-4-2-1 tournament way. Sound good?

 

[aparch]

Re: BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

There is no subjectivity in the process. It is done strictly on the numbers. The top 16 in the PWR, minus any spots for non-Top 16 automatic qualifiers.

And you thought the BCS was convoluted!

It's all simple math. There are no smoke filled rooms that decide the process (anymore, I think 2002-03 was one of the last "let's tweak the percentages" years).

I'd gladly take the PWR, and it's flaws, over the BCS method any day.

 

[nmupiccdiva]

Re: BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

It's all simple math. There are no smoke filled rooms that decide the process (anymore, I think 2002-03 was one of the last "let's tweak the percentages" years).

I'd gladly take the PWR, and it's flaws, over the BCS method any day.

Yeah, it's simple math, but there's a lot of it. That leads to the convoluted appearance of it all.

 

[NMU8405]

Re: BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

Whatever happened to the straight forward "do good, don't suck, you're in" philosophy of playoffs?
I have an idea, let's get 7 more teams to join up, have all 64 teams qualify, and drag this sucker out for over a month in a 64-32-16-8-4-2-1 tournament way. Sound good?

Sounds stupid to me

Also, this is a good site for % of making the NCAAs and league standings.

Playoff Status

 

[aparch]

Re: BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

Sounds stupid to me

Also, this is a good site for % of making the NCAAs and league standings.

Playoff Status

Thank you! I lost the bookmark to that site and have been looking for it for a while.

 

[RaceBoarder]

Re: BGSU @ NMU, Jan 15/16: Oh, yeah, we have these games, too...

One thing that also should be mentioned regarding an At-Large bid... Come Conference Playoff time, there is the potential for additional matchups that can lend a huge helping hand like Miami, Michigan, etc... For those to really help though, we would need to make the Joe and win at least a game...

Then again, if we win those, we could just take the Mason Cup and be done with this at-large nonsense