5 dollar gas...are we ready?

[Slap Shot]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

And there you have it - you just talked yourself out of solar-based energy as a viable replacement for all of our energy needs.

When did he ever intimate as much? The question shouldn't be, "Will it replace all our needs?" but rather, "Will it replace x% of our needs at a -net cost?".

 

[Kepler]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

If a was female I wouldn't walk around alone anywhere near the suspension bridge at night.

I was thinking of urban crime, not frat boy date rape. But point taken.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

What a surprise, the hippies WERE getting their panties in a bunch.

 

[Tundra]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

What a surprise, the hippies WERE getting their panties in a bunch.

There is a problem with the amount of discharged wastewater in fracking, just like in mining. as long as we raise royalty taxes and use part of that money for enviromental damage I've no problem letting companies drill anywhere.

On the CA $1 spike of gasoline over 7 days... let me just paste from prior investigations that found no collusion but only free market supply and demand.

I find it ridiculous that they mention gasoling station, reseller profit margins hasn't changed, but they never talk about refiners PROFIT MARGIN.

http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Feds-No-collusion-or-price-gouging-Blame-it-on-2518183.php

2006-05-23 04:00:00 PDT Washington -- Gas prices soared across the country after Hurricane Katrina in late summer, but federal investigators reported Monday they could find no evidence that oil companies manipulated prices or colluded to take advantage of the situation to increase profits.

The Federal Trade Commission also determined in a longer-range finding that during the past 20 years refiners didn't seek to manipulate prices by cutting the number of operating refineries or limiting increases in capacity

http://www.adn.com/2009/02/12/689066/investigation-finds-no-evidence.html

An investigation into last year's high gasoline prices found no evidence of illegal price-fixing among sellers, the Alaska attorney general's office said Thursday.

A 30-page report cites "market conditions" peculiar to Alaska for causing gas prices to remain elevated here while pump prices in other states fell sharply once record-high crude oil prices plunged over the second half of 2008

It's the second time this decade that a state probe found no illegality behind high gas prices. The previous investigation was finished in 2002 during the administration of former Gov. Tony Knowles

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

The spread between WTI and Brent is now $23. That means our domestic oil is WORTHLESS. We can't move it anywhere. We don't have the capacity to refine it.

 

[joecct]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Yes, it is....

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

And there you have it - you just talked yourself out of solar-based energy as a viable replacement for all of our energy needs. If we're currently around 30% in efficiency, then we can only get a maximum of 3.33x better, but we're orders of magnitude away from viability. I'm not sure what other analogies I can use, but it's like you're trying to fill a swimming pool with a teaspoon and saying, "gee, if I only had a TABLESPOON (3x bigger), we'd be all set."

I assure you that this is not my problem with understanding solar - I'm one of the industry experts that the USAF turns to on matters of thermal efficiency in new aircraft designs. The problem is that we ARE close to the maximum efficiency - we're "only" 3x away from the absolute peak efficiency, but solar radiation is ~1000x too diffuse to be viable. Play around with the efficiency all you like and we still wouldn't get there. The problem that most people who favor solar have is that they usually only focus on replacing electricity generation (not total global energy usage), so they're only looking at a rather small, relatively easy part of the global energy problem - solar can't begin to scratch the surface of our current reliance on petroleum for transportation (land, sea, and air).

Congratulations. I'm sure the USAF also calls you when they want to discuss solar cells.

What you fail to even address is what the solar efficiency means. It's meaningless without production and varying fuel costs included in the discussion. Right now we're in the infancy of solar technology when compared to petroleum, coal, and natural gas. Solar isn't viable right now because the production costs are too high. New technology is reducing this cost while increasing the solar efficiency and decreasing the size of the collectors required.

Photon-to-electron efficiency is only one factor in the whole solar mess. All signs point to 50% as the magical number to where solar has the $/kW low enough to compete commercially with other sources. 30% is the breakeven point on a non-commercial, micro scale. This doesn't even include the solar concentration technologies. Between the miniaturization, better capture and concentration, and better transfer efficiency, it will become commercially viable. I would highly recommend reading some of the peer-reviewed articles of the latest advances in solar technology. It's moved well beyond the silicon-based technology we all know and love.

The biggest gains will be from the average household being able to generate their energy needs near the point of consumption. This would reduce the massive losses in efficiency that occur during transmission of electricity. Again, It's the localization that's going to be a huge benefit. So while this won't take care of all of our energy needs, it could act as a supplement to our energy portfolio in the near term and grow far beyond inclusion in just a "renewable energy sources" line item.

According to the EIA, residential energy consumption accounts for 22% of the energy consumed in the US and commercial accounts for 18% of consumption. In addition, 27% of the electricity generated in the US is lost due to transmission. Let's just assume that the 40% scales with the electrical losses (11% of total energy generated). We're talking 32% of the electricity generated in the US that goes to residential, commercial, and electrical losses (to commercial/residential). That's a massive chunk of energy that could be reduced and not this meaningless chunk you reference. 32% is NOT insignificant. It's more than the 28% that goes to transportation within the US.

(See this graphic: http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/pdf/sec17_5.pdf and this graphic: http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/pdf/sec2_5.pdf ).

I would also recommend this: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/pdfs/47927_chapter2.pdf

 

[LynahFan]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Congratulations. I'm sure the USAF also calls you when they want to discuss solar cells.

Uh-huh. And your degree in solar energy came from where?

What you fail to even address is what the solar efficiency means.

I think it means "useful energy out divided by total energy in." Pretty standard definition, and it has nothing to do with cost or any of the other gobbledegook you're trying to use to paper over the basic physics.

Photon-to-electron efficiency is only one factor in the whole solar mess.

That's pretty much my primary point, and my secondary point is that of all the factors, collector efficiency is a relatively unimportant one. Even if we had 100% efficient collectors, we'd still be a long way from being able to use solar energy for all of our energy needs. Achieving 30% or 50% or any other efficiency target does not solve the fundamental problem with solar energy: the sheer amount of land area that must be devoted to energy collection.

The biggest gains will be from the average household being able to generate their energy needs near the point of consumption.

80% of the US population lives in urban/suburban areas. Diffuse energy source + dense population = fundamental mismatch. Solar will have just as many transmission problems as our current electrical grid. Also, you're still focused entirely on the electricity market. A suburban house may have enough roof area for most/all of the household's electricity needs, but what about its transportation needs?

I fail to see how this chart (http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/pdf/sec17_5.pdf) demonstrates that solar will be able to replace those huge mountains of fossil fuels. Don't forget that this discussion/thread is about gasoline prices. Where's the link on this chart between renewables and transportation? Oh, wait, I found it: "4%".

And on http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/pdf/sec2_5.pdf, did you happen to notice that chart in the lower right?

I would also recommend this: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/pdfs/47927_chapter2.pdf

I can summarize that in one sentence: "Wow, the sun sure puts out a lot of energy." So what? There's a ton of iron ore on Mars, too, but we can't use that either. This study did nothing to address the real barriers to solar energy becoming a viable replacement for fossil fuels.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

The spread between WTI and Brent is now $23. That means our domestic oil is WORTHLESS. We can't move it anywhere. We don't have the capacity to refine it.

I will never understand why it isn't a national priority to increase refinement capacity. I don't get that.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I will never understand why it isn't a national priority to increase refinement capacity. I don't get that.

We used to have more refinement capacity. The refineries were losing money - many (most?) are not owned by BP, Exxon, etc - and thus a lot of them closed.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I will never understand why it isn't a national priority to increase refinement capacity. I don't get that.

What do you think Hyperion is trying to do? And what is the government doing?

Refineries and drilling themselves are practically worthless if you can't get product between the two. The Philadelphia refinery uses Brent crude, because it can't easily get WTI crude. There's no pipeline. Even if they carried it by train, it would cost probably about $15/bbl to transport it from North Dakota.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

We used to have more refinement capacity. The refineries were losing money - many (most?) are not owned by BP, Exxon, etc - and thus a lot of them closed.

Well, that sucks but I'm not shocked. I guess I don't have a real grasp of the history then.

What do you think Hyperion is trying to do? And what is the government doing?

Refineries and drilling themselves are practically worthless if you can't get product between the two. The Philadelphia refinery uses Brent crude, because it can't easily get WTI crude. There's no pipeline. Even if they carried it by train, it would cost probably about $15/bbl to transport it from North Dakota.

I have read the Hyperion information and what the government "isn't" doing is what bothers me.

EDIT: for those interested there is a factcheck article on this. My cynical side agrees that those closings were directly tied to getting more profit. That's why we need a real energy plan at the Federal Level.

http://www.factcheck.org/2008/05/us-oil-refining-capability/

 

[bigmrg74]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I will never understand why it isn't a national priority to increase refinement capacity. I don't get that.

The NIMBY crowd for one.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

The NIMBY crowd for one.

That, and environmental permit regulations. Both are causing serious delays in the Hyperion refinery building. Not to mention, if you put a refinery in the middle of South Dakota, where are you going to deliver? OK, you'll probably put a dent in the Chicago and Minneapolis markets, MAYBE help out Denver, but you need the infrastructure to get the product there.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Well, that sucks but I'm not shocked. I guess I don't have a real grasp of the history then.



I have read the Hyperion information and what the government "isn't" doing is what bothers me.

EDIT: for those interested there is a factcheck article on this. My cynical side agrees that those closings were directly tied to getting more profit. That's why we need a real energy plan at the Federal Level.

http://www.factcheck.org/2008/05/us-oil-refining-capability/

It's not so much more profit as it is to decrease expense costs. This goes back to the Brent/WTI price difference again. Most of the refineries that closed were forced to use the more expensive Brent crude. This drove up not only core costs, but you also have to factor in the delivery cost and relevant Ex/Im taxes to get it shipped from its primary location, whether it's the Middle East, Venezuela, or somewhere else not in North America.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

For me, the bottom line is that if the best alternatives we can come up with are solar based (whether that means PV cells, wind, or biofuel) then human civilization as we know it will cease to exist. Solar-based energy collectors will NEVER be able to produce energy at the rate (i.e. at the power) that human civilization currently consumes it. This is an objective fact. Saying, "but we have to do something!" is like investing effort into throwing teaspoons of water on the Chicago fire. We. Will. Not. Get. There. regardless of how soon we start investing or how much we invest. You cannot invest your way around, over, or through the laws of physics.

We have two choices:

1. Accept that in 100 years we will not have an energy supply capable of producing the 16 million MW that a modern, civilized population of 7 billion people consumes. Either the population or our lifestyle (and likely both) will experience a massive decline as society adjusts to getting by on the meager scraps provided by solar-based energy.

2. Invest in non-solar based alternative energy (nuclear/fusion) and hope for a breakthrough that keeps us away from option #1.

That's it. It's not pleasant to contemplate, but trying to paper over this choice by dreaming that biofuel, solar, and wind can solve the problem is wishful thinking and willful ignorance of reality.

Um, ALL energy initially was solar based, it was called photosynthesis and that grew the plants that died and turned into coal, oil, and gas.

What I take you to mean is that trying to capture solar energy by relying soleley on our current technology is misguided. It seems to me that the answer is to genetically engineer chloroplasts into something that can power our electronic devices. Then the oil and gas can be used exclusively for self-propelled vehicles, reducing the demand substantially and extending the longevity of our reserves for centuries.

To me, by far the biggest error in thinking is that energy generation (except for self-propelled vehicles) has to occur in centralized plants from whence it is then distributed. Decentralized, localized energy generation tailored to local geographical, geological, and climactic features makes far more sense.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Um, ALL energy initially was solar based, it was called photosynthesis and that grew the plants that died and turned into coal, oil, and gas.

What I take you to mean is that trying to capture solar energy by relying soleley on our current technology is misguided. It seems to me that the answer is to genetically engineer chloroplasts into something that can power our electronic devices. Then the oil and gas can be used exclusively for self-propelled vehicles, reducing the demand substantially and extending the longevity of our reserves for centuries.

I was watching an old episode of Dragon's Den the other day, and one entrepreneur was making chemically legitimate diamonds over the course of days. Why couldn't we look into something like that to create fossil fuels? If all we need is appropriate temperature and pressure along with the correct chemical makeup, it should be doable.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I wonder what fraction of our energy use is the result of how inexpensive it is, and how much more efficiently it would be used if it was at a higher price. Is it possible to shift, over time, to a less energy intensive economy without massive drops in our quality of life? I guess that is the real underlying question.

That shift is already well underway. With electronic conferencing, business travel is down, for example; grandma and grandpa now visit in person a bit less and use the internet with video phone more; telecommuters don't go into the office every day any more (I work remotely two days a week and travel into the office three days a week).

People are trying to use more locally-grown foods in their diet, reducing transport costs (there is a farm near us that now sells shares in its annual harvest to the public), and this in the middle of suburbia, not in some exurban part of the country.

The single biggest danger we face, in my estimation, by far, is over-reliance on centralized planning and the concomitant stifling of innovation and creativity that will result. Oddly, sustainable reforms of public pensions and entitlement programs become essential so that the voracious needs of government to confiscate everything to feed them can be tamed.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Nothing that prevents having both solar panels AND being connected to the overall electrical grid.

I thought that already was the standard in many places?? The electric meter is set up to run both ways. During the day when you are out and businesses are the prime users of electricity, your solar panels feed into the grid and you get credits; then at night when many businesses shut down for the day, you draw power from the grid when you get home. More electricity available overall without an increase in conventional generating capacity.

The biggest problem here is the transition. If I could figure out how to embed solar fibers in roofing shingles, then the problem would be mitigated over 30 years merely by attrition in old roofs!

 

[bigmrg74]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I thought that already was the standard in many places?? The electric meter is set up to run both ways. During the day when you are out and businesses are the prime users of electricity, your solar panels feed into the grid and you get credits; then at night when many businesses shut down for the day, you draw power from the grid when you get home. More electricity available overall without an increase in conventional generating capacity.

The biggest problem here is the transition. If I could figure out how to embed solar fibers in roofing shingles, then the problem would be mitigated over 30 years merely by attrition in old roofs!

You don't think somebody else ain't working on that Billion dollar idea?? A waterproof, weatherproof roof covering that could also collect solar energy along with being easily installed by any idiot with a hammer and last at least a decade?? Billions would be made off of that.