5 dollar gas...are we ready?

[LynahFan]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Um, ALL energy initially was solar based, it was called photosynthesis and that grew the plants that died and turned into coal, oil, and gas.

Of course - but it took millions of years for plants to collect the solar energy that was stored in the oil that we're going to burn up within 200 years, at most. That's not a sustainable energy source. To be sustainable, energy must be put into whatever "cache" we're using at the same (average) rate we are taking it out, otherwise that cache will eventually be depleted and there will not be enough energy supply. Of course, if that "cache" happened to be so large (e.g. the amount of hydrogen that could be available for fusion reactors) that it would last tens of thousands of years at our current energy usage, then that is a different story.

What I take you to mean is that trying to capture solar energy by relying soleley on our current technology is misguided.

No, I'm much more pessimistic than that. What I mean is that I don't think we will ever be able to create an energy infrastructure based on solar energy which could support anything close to our civilization's current energy usage, regardless of any future improvements in solar collection technology. When (not if) we deplete our fossil fuel resources, if "solar" (including wind, biofuel, PV cells, etc.) really is our only energy source, then modern civilization will collapse, period. There's just no way we will be able to create an energy infrastructure based on solar that can provide the amount of energy that we consume today. We need something better - fusion, etc.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Of course - but it took millions of years for plants to collect the solar energy that was stored in the oil that we're going to burn up within 200 years, at most. That's not a sustainable energy source. To be sustainable, energy must be put into whatever "cache" we're using at the same (average) rate we are taking it out, otherwise that cache will eventually be depleted and there will not be enough energy supply. Of course, if that "cache" happened to be so large (e.g. the amount of hydrogen that could be available for fusion reactors) that it would last tens of thousands of years at our current energy usage, then that is a different story.

What goes into the creation of oil? A whole bunch of pressure and the right composition of basic materials, right? Lab diamonds are already being created and those go under similar pressure constraints, so why couldn't we do the same thing with oil? Granted, I'm not trying to suggest defiling graves for carbon sources, but if we can create that sort of stuff even over the course of a month, we have the sustainability problem solved. In addition, you could put those sorts of labs right next to refineries, and you've just knocked off a large delivery cost!

 

[LynahFan]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

What goes into the creation of oil? A whole bunch of pressure and the right composition of basic materials, right? Lab diamonds are already being created and those go under similar pressure constraints, so why couldn't we do the same thing with oil? Granted, I'm not trying to suggest defiling graves for carbon sources, but if we can create that sort of stuff even over the course of a month, we have the sustainability problem solved. In addition, you could put those sorts of labs right next to refineries, and you've just knocked off a large delivery cost!

What's the source of energy for your machines that generate the pressure and the heat? Carbon (and oxygen and hydrogen) are easy to come by, but as they assemble into hydrocarbons, they'll only absorb some fraction of the energy being put into the machine - it might approach 1, but it will certainly never exceed 1. You're not talking about an energy source, you're talking about converting energy from some unspecified source into the chemical bond energy of hydrocarbons. You can't just turn around and burn the hydrocarbons to provide the energy, because the amount you create won't be enough to keep the machine running - that would be a perpetual motion machine, and those can't exist.

So what's the source?

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

What's the source of energy for your machines that generate the pressure and the heat? Carbon (and oxygen and hydrogen) are easy to come by, but as they assemble into hydrocarbons, they'll only absorb some fraction of the energy being put into the machine - it might approach 1, but it will certainly never exceed 1. You're not talking about an energy source, you're talking about converting energy from some unspecified source into the chemical bond energy of hydrocarbons. You can't just turn around and burn the hydrocarbons to provide the energy, because the amount you create won't be enough to keep the machine running - that would be a perpetual motion machine, and those can't exist.

So what's the source?

Obviously you'd have to have a good deal of energy to create the temperature and pressure conditions. I don't know exact numbers, but as always, trying to think outside the box here.

 

[walrus]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I thought that already was the standard in many places?? The electric meter is set up to run both ways. During the day when you are out and businesses are the prime users of electricity, your solar panels feed into the grid and you get credits; then at night when many businesses shut down for the day, you draw power from the grid when you get home. More electricity available overall without an increase in conventional generating capacity.

The biggest problem here is the transition. If I could figure out how to embed solar fibers in roofing shingles, then the problem would be mitigated over 30 years merely by attrition in old roofs!

The grid doesn't just ramp up and ramp down because the sun sets or rises.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

The grid doesn't just ramp up and ramp down because the sun sets or rises.

The demand might not, but the supply would. What would you end up doing for night usage, especially businesses that make their living on night life? Even the large solar fields have natgas plants nearby to cover the night.

 

[joecct]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

The demand might not, but the supply would. What would you end up doing for night usage, especially businesses that make their living on night life? Even the large solar fields have natgas plants nearby to cover the night.

There are also many businesses (we have a Duron plant nearby) that do the production runs at night to take advantage of the cheaper rates.

 

[BassAle]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

The demand might not, but the supply would. What would you end up doing for night usage, especially businesses that make their living on night life? Even the large solar fields have natgas plants nearby to cover the night.

I've read about wind and solar installations that store excess energy by using the electricity to pump water uphill. Then when more energy is needed they use it for hydro power. You obviously could not store enough energy to meet all of our nighttime needs, but it is a neat idea.

 

[Slap Shot]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

$3.45 today although I am sure that is fleeting.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I've read about wind and solar installations that store excess energy by using the electricity to pump water uphill. Then when more energy is needed they use it for hydro power. You obviously could not store enough energy to meet all of our nighttime needs, but it is a neat idea.

It can actually be relatively efficient, too, and economical compared with batteries due to much lower maintenance costs - ponds don't have to be replaced too often.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

It can actually be relatively efficient, too, and economical compared with batteries due to much lower maintenance costs - ponds don't have to be replaced too often.

Also figure the life span of these rechargable "batteries". How long can they actually hold a charge?

Obviously the plan depends on rivers and streams. Not every place, especially Arizona, has the St. Lawrence River nearby.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Wow, some GOP are desperate.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

No, I'm much more pessimistic than that. What I mean is that I don't think we will ever be able to create an energy infrastructure based on solar energy which could support anything close to our civilization's current energy usage, regardless of any future improvements in solar collection technology. When (not if) we deplete our fossil fuel resources, if "solar" (including wind, biofuel, PV cells, etc.) really is our only energy source, then modern civilization will collapse, period. There's just no way we will be able to create an energy infrastructure based on solar that can provide the amount of energy that we consume today. We need something better - fusion, etc.

Thomas Malthus felt the same way at the end of the 18th century, you know.

I'm not disagreeing with you at all, merely pointing out that we frame all these predictions based only on what we already know, and it is impossible to factor in what kinds of breakthroughs will occur when you marry desperation with ingenuity.

One of the asssumptions you make that I wonder about is that you assume energy use per capita will remain at current levels or increase. Not sure I'd agree, just as if we were talking about infrastructure, I'd way it is extremely foolish to "invest" in high-speed rail; we won't need to be moving people about as much as we do now. Prototypes of self-propelled vehicles that get well over 100 mpg have already been built (I also think battery-powered electric cars are a ridiculous idea; we don't have enough electricity generation to charge 5% of the vehicles on the road now, and what about trucks?)

If I knew how to find the company, I'd invest in bioengineered chloroplasts as local electricity generators.

The biggest single problem we face, in my estimation, is one of constricted vision. It seems all the assumptions are based on centralized this, government-funded that, etc. My bet is that the so-called "third world" will make the advancements first, because they are not locked into the inertia of systems and thinking that we are. Sort of like, how after WWII, European manufacturing could leapfrog ahead of us, because all of their facilities were destroyed, and they rebuilt from scratch using the most modern technology available, while we were locked into aging plants and equipment.

If you are at all familiar with microcap lending, you'll have a better sense of what I am trying to convey.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

What goes into the creation of oil? A whole bunch of pressure and the right composition of basic materials, right? Lab diamonds are already being created and those go under similar pressure constraints, so why couldn't we do the same thing with oil? Granted, I'm not trying to suggest defiling graves for carbon sources, but if we can create that sort of stuff even over the course of a month, we have the sustainability problem solved. In addition, you could put those sorts of labs right next to refineries, and you've just knocked off a large delivery cost!

There's this thing called "the law of conservation of energy" that is a problem for your scheme, and also the Second Law of Thermodynamics...

Edit: oops, LynahFan beat me to it.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

There's this thing called "the law of conservation of energy" that is a problem for your scheme, and also the Second Law of Thermodynamics...

Edit: oops, LynahFan beat me to it.

Those damm science laws.

 

[BassAle]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

(I also think battery-powered electric cars are a ridiculous idea; we don't have enough electricity generation to charge 5% of the vehicles on the road now, and what about trucks?)

We don't have to replace all vehicles, like trucks, but commuter cars make to move towards electric -- especially as battery technology improves and drops in cost. Most people would charge them overnight when our generating capacity exceeds demand and it doesn't take that much to charge a car enough to cover an average commute. My wife commutes less than one mile each way to work. We're talking a few cents worth of electricity to recharge overnight. I commute _much_ farther but I use a mix of telecommuting (work from home a couple days a week) and public transportation. I usually drive less than half a mile round trip to get to/from said public transportation (I would walk/bike, but I usually don't give myself enough time in the morning!).

 

[J.D.]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Good thing I just had a 2nd telecommuting day approved...

 

[FreshFish]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

We don't have to replace all vehicles, like trucks, but commuter cars make to move towards electric -- especially as battery technology improves and drops in cost. Most people would charge them overnight when our generating capacity exceeds demand and it doesn't take that much to charge a car enough to cover an average commute. My wife commutes less than one mile each way to work. We're talking a few cents worth of electricity to recharge overnight. I commute _much_ farther but I use a mix of telecommuting (work from home a couple days a week) and public transportation. I usually drive less than half a mile round trip to get to/from said public transportation (I would walk/bike, but I usually don't give myself enough time in the morning!).

I'd like to see the data from which you draw your conclusions about the electrical capacity required to charge battery-powered automobiles. From what I've read, we do not have the capacity to charge very many on a proportionate basis relative to the number of cars on the road. It may well be that the data upon which those articles are based is faulty....

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I'd like to see the data from which you draw your conclusions about the electrical capacity required to charge battery-powered automobiles. From what I've read, we do not have the capacity to charge very many on a proportionate basis relative to the number of cars on the road. It may well be that the data upon which those articles are based is faulty....

How much electricity is required to charge one battery? We can figure it out from there. This ain't tLodge, math's OK.

 

[unh_hockey]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

What goes into the creation of oil? A whole bunch of pressure and the right composition of basic materials, right? Lab diamonds are already being created and those go under similar pressure constraints, so why couldn't we do the same thing with oil? Granted, I'm not trying to suggest defiling graves for carbon sources, but if we can create that sort of stuff even over the course of a month , we have the sustainability problem solved. In addition, you could put those sorts of labs right next to refineries, and you've just knocked off a large delivery cost!

You forgot the most important factor in the equation - time. We can't synthesize time effect in creating a 'new' energy source. Everything we have took years to get to its current state. Oil and natural gas took millions of years of pressure and heat. Heck even nuclear energy and fissile material took millions of years to radioactively decay to its current state.

The sustainability problem is that of size. There are too many people on the planet to provide energy for in any sort of sustainable fashion. Look at the emergence of India and china as world players in the oil arena. Many feel this above speculation is accounting for the general upward cost of oil.