5 dollar gas...are we ready?

[JF_Gophers]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I'm not anti oil. I'll be dead long before there is an actual energy crisis or any other kind of natural resource crisis for that matter.

I just think its better to be proactive than reactive.

 

[unh_hockey]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I'm not anti oil. I'll be dead long before there is an actual energy crisis or any other kind of natural resource crisis for that matter.

I just think its better to be proactive than reactive.

true, and my comment wasn't directed at you but was more general. I also agree its best to be proactive. heck , I tried to! However, I am not the next Henry Ford, or Craig Venter unfortunatly. On the optimistic side, I see my favorite plug, algae, being mainstream in the next hundred years so hopefully we can grow our own oil.

 

[unh_hockey]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Lets play a game with the electric car hype. Its called “Guess the year this quote occurred”. I post a quote regarding electric cars which came out in the past, you guess the year. :

#1: “ (Electric cars) has long been recognized as the ideal solution” because it “is cleaner and quieter” and “much more economical.”

#2 “Prices on electric cars will continue to drop until they are within reach of the average family”

#3 “a giant carmaker has found “a breakthrough in batteries” that “now makes electric cars commercially practical.” The new zinc-nickel oxide batteries will provide the “100-mile range that General Motors executives believe is necessary to successfully sell electric vehicles to the public.”


I have the answers, but lets see how you all do.

 

[amherstblackbear]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

If you have a point to make, just make it. Saves time

-ABB 20 April 2011

 

[unh_hockey]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

If you have a point to make, just make it. Saves time

-ABB 20 April 2011

1911, 1915, 1979

I figured if america has been that gullible for 100 years, what would a few more posts in a day make ?

 

[amherstblackbear]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I'm sure you can find "futurists" making all sorts of wild assertions, on all sorts of subjects. I'm not sure what the point is.

Re: electrics, there are serious conversations to be had, no doubt. But describing things as blind faith when they're actually old news probably isn't the best way to start.

*Apparently, GM already eclipsed the 100-mile mark about 10 years ago, with the gen2 batteries in their EV. I hadn't realized that.
*The nominal price of gas is almost 4x what it was when automakers axed their electrics in the late 90s / early 00s -- inflation hasn't been *that* great.

 

[unh_hockey]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I'm sure you can find "futurists" making all sorts of wild assertions, on all sorts of subjects. I'm not sure what the point is.

Re: electrics, there are serious conversations to be had, no doubt. But describing things as blind faith when they're actually old news probably isn't the best way to start.

*Apparently, GM already eclipsed the 100-mile mark about 10 years ago, with the gen2 batteries in their EV. I hadn't realized that.
*The nominal price of gas is almost 4x what it was when automakers axed their electrics in the late 90s / early 00s -- inflation hasn't been *that* great.

Its the same old song and dance. People push electric cars becasue of battaries, cost, range....all of which has been the story for 100 years. Car comapnies love it because if a government subsidies them, which they do, than they make money. What about market penetration? The pruis took 10 years to acquire 0.5 % market share. 1 million vehicles in a US fleet of roughly 250 million, and several billion world wide. That isn't so hot. Do you think a EV vehicle which gets 100 mile range is going to be commonplace? The target markets are socal and anyplace where they can run reliably. Moreover, the demographic are folks who already own cars.

I let the numbers talk for me. They haven't said much. Sorry, I don't buy electric hype. Not the Tesla, not the Volt. As the president of Audi said There are not enough idiots who will buy it"

For closure, the 3 quuotes were from the New York times, and Washington Post in 1911 and 1915/1979 respectivly

 

[amherstblackbear]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

The barriers to entry in the auto business are so high that I don't think it's really possible to read demand from sales the way that you can with small-ticket items. People will buy what the big manufacturers market & sell. If firms have an interest in continuing existing product lines, rather than pursuing new ones, and they don't face new competitors, of course there will appear to be limited demand.

As for government subsidizing corporate activity, we're truly looking at just the tip of the iceberg, here.

eta:

Hybrids are a different animal. You're still filling up at the pump, just once less per month (the increase in fuel economy over other compacts just isn't that great anymore). The selling point is image as much as anything.

 

[unh_hockey]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

The barriers to entry in the auto business are so high that I don't think it's really possible to read demand from sales the way that you can with small-ticket items. People will buy what the big manufacturers market & sell. If firms have an interest in continuing existing product lines, rather than pursuing new ones, and they don't face new competitors, of course there will appear to be limited demand.

As for government subsidizing corporate activity, we're truly looking at just the tip of the iceberg, here.

eta:

Hybrids are a different animal. You're still filling up at the pump, just once less per month (the increase in fuel economy over other compacts just isn't that great anymore). The selling point is image as much as anything.

Or a limited demand because a product is not feasible due to function , or cost. This describes the electric vehicle to a tee. Ask yourself a few questions. Can a consumer deal with 50 mile one way trips? Can they deal with hours of downtime. Can they deal with the high cost, and low reliability of a car? Can they afford a 6 figure tag price? No. Hense no demand. The only reason car companies are taking the plunge into the EV market is because of subsidies. There is no real demand for a 100,000 dollar car that goes 50 miles and requires a day to charge.

Hybrids are a different beast, and I hope they make some ground. Its a great idea which can maybe deal with the downsides of both fuel sources. For now, I have my eyes set on a Diesel but those won't ever come state side due to regulations.

 

[amherstblackbear]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

For $100k, you're looking at something like this:

Which has a range of 250 miles.

I'm just guessing that it would be possible to make a Prius-style econobox for a bit less.

 

[unh_hockey]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

During a road trip to san fran, we saw one and pulled over to snap a few shots. Its a good looking car no doubt about it. A range of 250 mile would be sufficient for 95% of my needs too.

100 k$ still is beyond my reach. Think if you purchased a 20 k$ toyota than invested the rest. I bet you would never reach a break even point even saving money on the gas. I am too lazy to calculate this so take my word on it =)

She is sexy. I'd still rather have a lambo, or a lotus. 70 grant will get you the elise i believe. Heck with that, i'd just get the STI and a motor cycle and call it at day at 40 k$.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

For $100k, you're looking at something like this:

Which has a range of 250 miles.

I'm just guessing that it would be possible to make a Prius-style econobox for a bit less.

$109k, actually. The cost may or may not be related to that price, though. Also, a pretty significant part of the cost is *because* it has all that range. That cost doesn't come out no matter what body style you slap on the chassis.

 

[amherstblackbear]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

That, and the motor draws enough power to take it 0-60 in 3.something seconds. Which, while nice, is not a requirement for the standard compact market segment.

ETA:

I'm not sure how much of it is body style, how much is motor, how much is interior materials. Their new sedan has a more sedate motor (5.6 0-60) and a 300-mile range, and will retail for $50k.

As I said, presumably a model that is smaller, lighter, less powerful, not aimed at the luxury market, and with a range of ~200 as opposed to 300 miles . . . I'm guessing you could shave off several thousand more. And a bit more on top of that if you could produce in volume.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Do I hear $6?

 

[bigblue_dl]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

For now, I have my eyes set on a Diesel but those won't ever come state side due to regulations.

Ding, ding, ding. We should be moving towards diesels, since diesel fuel has more energy density than gasoline. Unfortunately, oil refining methods currently use limit the amount of diesel that is obtained from a barrel of oil. In the US we refine oil to maximize gasoline production, not diesel production. Until that changes and diesel fuel prices correct themselves, we won't see the demand for small diesels significantly increase. (and that is not going to change)

We really need to make advances in HCCI, which will increase engine efficiency quite a bit. This is the next big step in ICE technology.

 

[unh_hockey]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Do I hear $6?

ech, thats even worse than I thought when I posted this thread. I believe goldman called for lower futures prices, but it would seem they don't have a good pulse on the market and said futures finished something like 3-5 dollars higher than they thought. That said, not sure anyone is gullible enough to hold short positions given the instabilites and uncertain future as referenced in this article.

The fed and uncle sam need to stop playing these ****ty games ala QE2, and start instilling faith ( LOL) and stability into the USD. So far it seems they are trying their best to do the exact opposite. The article suggests a inverse correlation of the dollar to crude prices , and if thats the case and we have more QE, than oil prices are going to suck.

And now for my favorite plug, the carbon tax. Ask yourself this. How fair would it be for freight companies who rely on burning petrol to do business to ALSO tax them? Basically its one big double dip. Price go up and they get taxed for it. I really hope no carbon taxing goes into effect expecially considering how volitile energy costs are.

 

[unh_hockey]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Ding, ding, ding. We should be moving towards diesels, since diesel fuel has more energy density than gasoline. Unfortunately, oil refining methods currently use limit the amount of diesel that is obtained from a barrel of oil. In the US we refine oil to maximize gasoline production, not diesel production. Until that changes and diesel fuel prices correct themselves, we won't see the demand for small diesels significantly increase. (and that is not going to change)

We really need to make advances in HCCI, which will increase engine efficiency quite a bit. This is the next big step in ICE technology.

Right. the EU focuses more on Diesel production from what I understand. The demand is lower, the prices are higher, and the land masses are smaller so its more managable over there. However given the efficincy bump , wouldnt you think that the US should push for this? It seems like politics as usual is holding back something that could save a lot of money. As always, I refer to the experts for more as my interest is soley on acquiring a hot Subaru Diesel that gets great gas miliage, drives far, handles great, and the like. (Dream on )

 

[unofan]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

The article suggests a inverse correlation of the dollar to crude prices , and if thats the case and we have more QE, than oil prices are going to suck.

The dollar is not a store of wealth, but a means of exchange. Stability simply means we get back to our normal 1-2%/year inflation. Also, is it really that shocking that when you have more dollars chasing a smaller amount of oil, the price rises?

That said, the weak dollar, while a contributing factor, is hardly the prominent one. Oil is a global market, the rising demand in places like China, India, and the other developing economies has played a much bigger role than the Federal Reserve.

How fair would it be for freight companies who rely on burning petrol to do business to ALSO tax them? Basically its one big double dip. Price go up and they get taxed for it. I really hope no carbon taxing goes into effect expecially considering how volitile energy costs are.

Is it fair that they get to cause environmental issues for everyone without paying for such costs? That's literally the textbook example of an externality getting priced into the market (albeit, in the textbook it's SO2 from the industrial revolution). See also "tragedy of the commons."

But if you want to shift this thread to economics, be my guest. That is one of my fields.

 

[Twitch Boy]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

The problem I have with these electric cars is that they're all 2WD nerd rockets. Good for shuttling people around town, but not for much else.

Wake me up when someone comes up with an electric 4X4 that can haul a trailer and get you to work in 12 inches of snow.

Whichever car company can do that first will make a king's ransom. Trucks are where the Big 3 make their big money anyway.

 

[bigblue_dl]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

The problem I have with these electric cars is that they're all 2WD nerd rockets. Good for shuttling people around town, but not for much else.

Wake me up when someone comes up with an electric 4X4 that can haul a trailer and get you to work in 12 inches of snow.

Whichever car company can do that first will make a king's ransom. Trucks are where the Big 3 make their big money anyway.

Exactly. The direction to go for these applications is definitely hybrid diesel. Tons of torque when you need to tow, 40-50 mpg when you're just driving around. Electric vehicles can't be used for doing real work, if the batteries today can only get a matchbox car 100 miles, what they hell is going to happen when you toss 20,000 behind a electric truck?