2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

[trixR4kids]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

And from CATO and Club for Growth and Heritage... crickets.

But clearly it was because their policies weren't libertarian enough! If only we could go back to the late 1800's...

 

[SJHovey]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

And yet none of our "economic experts" on here will explain this, or explain Kansas. I want someone to break down Kansas and tell me why the ONLY idea Paul Ryan has has failed miserably.

What has happened in Kansas is pretty easy to see.

The state made some drastic cuts to it's tax revenue with the hope of stimulating jobs growth/economic growth in the state.

The effect of that, in the short term, was a substantial loss of state revenue, which then resulted in either no public sector job growth, or even some retraction in the number of public sector jobs.

Kansas did see an increase in private sector jobs. Whether that increase was due to the tax cuts, or to just a general uptick in the economy is probably pretty hard to figure.

But because the private sector increases were not enough to offset the public sector decreases or stagnation, their numbers look pretty bad right now.

Whether it will ultimately be good for Kansas that they squeezed public sector jobs for the hope of an increase in private sector jobs remains to be seen in my opinion. It's pretty easy to create jobs if you are the government if you just want to create a bunch of public employment positions. How good or bad for the economy that action causes is almost certainly subject to disagreement.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

What has happened in Kansas is pretty easy to see.

The state made some drastic cuts to it's tax revenue with the hope of stimulating jobs growth/economic growth in the state.

The effect of that, in the short term, was a substantial loss of state revenue, which then resulted in either no public sector job growth, or even some retraction in the number of public sector jobs.

Kansas did see an increase in private sector jobs. Whether that increase was due to the tax cuts, or to just a general uptick in the economy is probably pretty hard to figure.

But because the private sector increases were not enough to offset the public sector decreases or stagnation, their numbers look pretty bad right now.

Whether it will ultimately be good for Kansas that they squeezed public sector jobs for the hope of an increase in private sector jobs remains to be seen in my opinion. It's pretty easy to create jobs if you are the government if you just want to create a bunch of public employment positions. How good or bad for the economy that action causes is almost certainly subject to disagreement.

And the manner in which this is done is to not pay your bills and have your credit rating decreased? That's what Minnesota's prior governor did. Now that we have a governor with a brain we have a surplus, have paid back the school districts with the money the Republicans borrowed (stole) from them, and have a growing economy.

It still doesn't explain Kansas' (Brownback's) methodology.

If you really want to shrink Government you have to cut something. Not paying the bills doesn't shrink it. That's the false choice the Republicans are making all the time.

 

[trixR4kids]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Well I think people just assume that tax cuts spur private growth because they use some type of underpants gnome logic. If you cut out taxes and, as a result public jobs (and the ones that are still around take a pay cut), they have less money to spend on the private sector and therefore you won't see much growth there. There's also the problem of the state not having as much money to put into projects/programs that have a multiplier effect.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

And the manner in which this is done is to not pay your bills and have your credit rating decreased? That's what Minnesota's prior governor did. Now that we have a governor with a brain we have a surplus, have paid back the school districts with the money the Republicans borrowed (stole) from them, and have a growing economy.

It still doesn't explain Kansas' (Brownback's) methodology.

If you really want to shrink Government you have to cut something. Not paying the bills doesn't shrink it. That's the false choice the Republicans are making all the time.

I personally believe state legislatures, and even more so, state governors, have very limited impact on the growth or non-growth of the economy and jobs within that state.

They can take some steps to cause an immediate uptick or downtick in jobs or the economy, but by and large it's going to be driven by outside influences such as the national and worldwide economy.

For example, this is an article I saw on MN job growth. http://www.minnpost.com/macro-micro-minnesota/2014/10/no-minnesota-not-dead-last-midwest-job-growth What you see is that under both Republican and Democratic governors, MN had job growth. You also see the steep decline, which coincidentally occurred at the same time as the collapse of the economy nationwide.

I don't give Pawlenty credit for the job growth from 2003 to 2008, and I don't give Dayton credit for the growth today.

Some of a state's economic advantages stem from pure happenstance, such as the discovery of oil, having a location on the coast with large ports, upturns or downturns in agriculture, etc...

I think a state can, over a very, very long time, give itself some advantages over neighboring states. Investments in higher education, a good infrastructure, etc... But you don't see those returns tomorrow, or even during the course of a governor's term in office. Believing otherwise is just an exercise in political grandstanding.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

I personally believe state legislatures, and even more so, state governors, have very limited impact on the growth or non-growth of the economy and jobs within that state.

They can take some steps to cause an immediate uptick or downtick in jobs or the economy, but by and large it's going to be driven by outside influences such as the national and worldwide economy.

For example, this is an article I saw on MN job growth. http://www.minnpost.com/macro-micro-minnesota/2014/10/no-minnesota-not-dead-last-midwest-job-growth What you see is that under both Republican and Democratic governors, MN had job growth. You also see the steep decline, which coincidentally occurred at the same time as the collapse of the economy nationwide.

I don't give Pawlenty credit for the job growth from 2003 to 2008, and I don't give Dayton credit for the growth today.

Some of a state's economic advantages stem from pure happenstance, such as the discovery of oil, having a location on the coast with large ports, upturns or downturns in agriculture, etc...

I think a state can, over a very, very long time, give itself some advantages over neighboring states. Investments in higher education, a good infrastructure, etc... But you don't see those returns tomorrow, or even during the course of a governor's term in office. Believing otherwise is just an exercise in political grandstanding.

And that's fine.

But, I do blame Pawlenty for our downgraded credit rating. That's the rub. Pay the bills. If you can't pay the bills, cut something.

 

[LynahFan]

And that's fine.

But, I do blame Pawlenty for our downgraded credit rating. That's the rub. Pay the bills. If you can't pay the bills, cut something.

Huh. Never figured you for that much of an austere-ist.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

And that's fine.

But, I do blame Pawlenty for our downgraded credit rating. That's the rub. Pay the bills. If you can't pay the bills, cut something.

If a governor doesn't have line-item veto powers, how can s/he "cut something" when spending bills are written within the legislature? The governor can state its priorities, but when facing a state house that's either divided or entirely of the opposing party, how can you place all blame at the foot of the governor?

Had the state approved voter ID and banning gay marriage to the state constitution during the 2012 voter refendum would you have hung that on Dayton's neck? That logic isn't far off from what you're laying at Pawlenty's feet. Compromise with the opposition party isn't always pretty.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Huh. Never figured you for that much of an austere-ist.

Paying the bills can be done by raising taxes.

If a governor doesn't have line-item veto powers, how can s/he "cut something" when spending bills are written within the legislature? The governor can state its priorities, but when facing a state house that's either divided or entirely of the opposing party, how can you place all blame at the foot of the governor?

Had the state approved voter ID and banning gay marriage to the state constitution during the 2012 voter refendum would you have hung that on Dayton's neck? That logic isn't far off from what you're laying at Pawlenty's feet. Compromise with the opposition party isn't always pretty.

Talked to a state rep (D) once about the governor (Pawlenty) and why he was getting so much of what he wanted. She told me the governor gets most of what they want. They have a lot of power and when voters vote them in they can get things done.

The reason those things didn't pass is because Dayton was in office. If Emmer had gotten elected they would have. No question about it.

 

[joecct]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

This is fascinating. Only 18 states plus DC have recovered all the jobs lost since recession. Strip out the energy producing states of TX, OK, ND, AK, LA who's job growth is unrelated to any gubmint policies since either you have oil or you don't, and the positive job gain states are almost all blue states! Go figure.

From liberal newsrag the WSJ:

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014...ent-recovered-the-jobs-lost-in-the-recession/

CA, CO, DC, IA, MD, MA, MN, NY, WA are the Dem states in full recovery. Fully how WI or KS isn't on there with their Tea Party governors instituting policy...

DC and MD probably are due primarily to the expansion of government and its contractors vs. private sector.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

DC and MD probably are due primarily to the expansion of government and its contractors vs. private sector.

Contractors aren't private sector?

There's a lot of independent commercial development in MD and VA, though you have a point.

As for DC, at this point I think it's being driven by lobbyists from Pfizer and Comcast more than anything else.

 

[joecct]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Contractors aren't private sector?

There's a lot of independent commercial development in MD and VA, though you have a point.

As for DC, at this point I think it's being driven by lobbyists from Pfizer and Comcast more than anything else.

Many live off the largesse of the Feds.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Many live off the largesse of the Feds.

Hey, I didn't even mention Cliven Bundy.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

The reason those things didn't pass is because Dayton was in office. If Emmer had gotten elected they would have. No question about it.

Voter ID and the gay marriage amendment votes were voted upon via referendum - you and me. It didn't matter who was in office, MN Constitutional amendments are voted upon by the voting public, not our elected officials. The only vote they have is whether or not to allow us the chance to approve or decline the amendments.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Voter ID and the gay marriage amendment votes were voted upon via referendum - you and me. It didn't matter who was in office, MN Constitutional amendments are voted upon by the voting public, not our elected officials. The only vote they have is whether or not to allow us the chance to approve or decline the amendments.

Aaah, my bad. Forgot that. I don't see the parallel you were trying to draw then, but that's ok.

EDIT: When were the votes for those? Before Dayton, or after, or at the same time? I think it was the same time. Dayton may be in office because those were on the ballot.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

But clearly it was because their policies weren't libertarian enough! If only we could go back to the late 1800's...

True. They never even got to abolish child labor laws, the minimum wage, and the estate tax! L. Neil Smith has a sad.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Aaah, my bad. Forgot that. I don't see the parallel you were trying to draw then, but that's ok.

My point is that not accolades and not all faults can be placed upon the governor. What would Dayton's term in office look like if the Republicans retained the MN house in 2012? Your state rep contact is just wrong in the larger scheme. Dayton didn't get what he wanted during the 2012 budget debate. In fact, the spending bill he eventually signed for the budget is the exact budget he originally vetoed to send the state government into "shutdown" mode (like the Feds, it's not truly a shutdown, only certain departments close and a few departments scale back on their duties for a time).

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

My point is that not accolades and not all faults can be placed upon the governor. What would Dayton's term in office look like if the Republicans retained the MN house in 2012? Your state rep contact is just wrong in the larger scheme. Dayton didn't get what he wanted during the 2012 budget debate. In fact, the spending bill he eventually signed for the budget is the exact budget he originally vetoed to send the state government into "shutdown" mode (like the Feds, it's not truly a shutdown, only certain departments close and a few departments scale back on their duties for a time).

Fair enough. That being said Brownback got what he wanted in Kansas. Are we saying he's not at fault? That's the way people vote. My saying fault is with the governor is just shorthand for the perception and reality of what should or is likely to happen at the ballot box. You want the top job then you get stuck with the results. That's the way it is and frankly the way it should be.

 

[unofan]

Fair enough. That being said Brownback got what he wanted in Kansas. Are we saying he's not at fault? That's the way people vote. My saying fault is with the governor is just shorthand for the perception and reality of what should or is likely to happen at the ballot box. You want the top job then you get stuck with the results. That's the way it is and frankly the way it should be.

The tea party guy in Pennsylvania is about to become the first governor in that state ever to lose a re-election campaign. Think about that.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

The tea party guy in Pennsylvania is about to become the first governor in that state ever to lose a re-election campaign. Think about that.

Interesting. For some reason I haven't followed that one at all. I'll have to do some reading.