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2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

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Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

SJHovey said:
This actually isn't true.

In 2004 white guys over the age of 65 made up 4.52% of the total population. In 2008 it went up to 4.59% and as of 2011 has hit 4.86%

For white guys 55 or older, they made up 8.55% of the population in 2004 but 9.81% in 2011 (9.18% in 2008).

Better start treating us with more respect. We're gaining on you. :p

Edit: Forgot link

http://www.census.gov/population/age/
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Minority voters gain 2% of the total voting pool every election since the 80's. They're coming at the expense of somebody. I'm wondering if the total population isn't corresponding to turnout much like you have in both youngsters and minorities (as in their % gain in the census doesn't always equate to their growth in the voting population).
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Kepler said:
"Probably"? Come now, Cuomo has no greater shot than 5 or 6 other Dems: Biden, O'Malley, Warner (who as was pointed out is no prize) all are in that tier. Patrick, Klobuchar, Schweitzer and Gillibrand are in the next tier. If Elizabeth Báthory doesn't get it, Cuomo has at best a one-in-five shot, before accounting for the backlash among liberals for attempting to hand the Oval Office to Goldman Sachs.
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Mind you I'm no fan of the guy, but you're pooh poohing his chances by putting him in the same category as O'Malley and Warner. I'm discounting a Biden bid for right now due to his age (73) at the time of the election. Thinking dispassionately for a second, Cuomo has 1) name recognition, 2) the ability to raise big bucks from his Wall St pals, 3) some bipartisan creds since he inexplicably went along with the GOP running the state Senate even though they're in the minority over there (long story) and 4) I believe was the driving force in NY being the first state to legalize gay marriage legislatively.

Beyond that, he pretty much locks down places like PA that Republicans always slobber over even though they haven't won the state since 1988. He can also reach out to the other Rust Belt states such as Ohio. Really, that's all he needs provided Hispanic heavy states of NV and NM stay home. Provided he can avoid a scandal (a big IF as he seems a little oily) I don't see the O'Malley's or Schweitzer's of the world keeping up with him.

So, no Hillary + no Biden = Cuomo IMHO. Not saying I like that, but he'd be tough to stop for the nomination.
 
Rover said:
Minority voters gain 2% of the total voting pool every election since the 80's. They're coming at the expense of somebody. I'm wondering if the total population isn't corresponding to turnout much like you have in both youngsters and minorities (as in their % gain in the census doesn't always equate to their growth in the voting population).
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His stats are caused by the baby boomers aging.

Your stats are caused by the millennials replacing the boomers' parents (and ever moreso, the boomers themselves) in the voting pool.

You're both right.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

unofan said:
His stats are caused by the baby boomers aging.

Your stats are caused by the millennials replacing the boomers' parents (and ever moreso, the boomers themselves) in the voting pool.

You're both right.
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Right. The two growth demographics are non-whites and old people, so in a 2x2 matrix of white/non-white and young/old, 3 squares are growing. The one that's shrinking relative to the others is young whites. This has enormous ramifications.

The political-demographic time-bomb isn't that old whites are dying off -- old whites are actually living a few weeks longer with each passing year. It's that when we finally do die we're going to be replaced by everything except young whites. After 150 years of patiently waiting for America to fix the racial-wealth correlation politically, Mother Nature has decided the hell with it, she'll just fix it Herself.
 
Kepler said:
Right. The two growth demographics are non-whites and old people, so in a 2x2 matrix of white/non-white and young/old, 3 squares are growing. The one that's shrinking relative to the others is young whites. This has enormous ramifications.

The political-demographic time-bomb isn't that old whites are dying off -- old whites are actually living a few weeks longer with each passing year. It's that when we finally do die we're going to be replaced by everything except young whites. After 150 years of patiently waiting for America to fix the racial-wealth correlation politically, Mother Nature has decided the hell with it, she'll just fix it Herself.
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Young whites have to start reproducin'!!
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Kepler said:
Right. The two growth demographics are non-whites and old people, so in a 2x2 matrix of white/non-white and young/old, 3 squares are growing. The one that's shrinking relative to the others is young whites. This has enormous ramifications.

The political-demographic time-bomb isn't that old whites are dying off -- old whites are actually living a few weeks longer with each passing year. It's that when we finally do die we're going to be replaced by everything except young whites. After 150 years of patiently waiting for America to fix the racial-wealth correlation politically, Mother Nature has decided the hell with it, she'll just fix it Herself.
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And that shift is going to create a very interesting political dynamic as it occurs. As the baby boomers move from the workforce into full dependency mode, and the costs of programs skyrocket even more than they presently do, which way will the Echo Boomers and the young, less white, voters go? Just full blown economic socialism similar to some European models, or do they now become the "conservatives" lashing out at excessive taxation and government programs?
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

I'm not sure Boomers is the right way to look at it. People born in 1946 and therefore came of age during GOP ascendancy and then were in their 30's during the Reagan era seem to be more conservative than people born in the early 60's who were in college during the 1980's. Roughly from what I can tell the sweet spot for conservatism seems to be roughly from pushing 60 years old to your mid 70's. A generation too young to remember the shared sacrifice of WWII and the Great Depression, hence no memory of the New Deal or alliance driven foreign policy, but who do remember the height of the Cold War and the strife of Vietnam.

Now if you were born in the early 60's you'd have little recollection of the height of the Vietnam war, would have been in grade school when Nixon resigned, but would have hit your 30's during the peace and prosperity of the Clinton Era.

There's an interesting article floating around about the back end of the Millenial generation, those born in 1998. They'd have no memory of Clinton and a vague memory of the Bush II disaster, so they're formative years will be of the Obama years, and will that make the more liberal or more conservative. The premise was that the economic stagnation might make them conservative, which sounds good in theory if young people weren't so socially liberal.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

SJHovey said:
And that shift is going to create a very interesting political dynamic as it occurs. As the baby boomers move from the workforce into full dependency mode, and the costs of programs skyrocket even more than they presently do, which way will the Echo Boomers and the young, less white, voters go? Just full blown economic socialism similar to some European models, or do they now become the "conservatives" lashing out at excessive taxation and government programs?
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The funniest part will be that it's a multiracial working population supporting a white social security population. The entire rhetoric of inter-racial balance of payments will be reversed. It will be amusing to watch the Foghorn Leghorns suddenly see the wisdom of a strong social safety net, and the Ta-Nehisi Coates types adopting the rhetoric of pull yourself up by your bootstraps and don't rely on a handout. :)

In all seriousness, it's the best thing that can happen to us. Every society has a perpetual balancing act between protecting equality of opportunity while not stifling innovation. The poison in America has been that this lined up with the racial divide. Breaking the white monopoly on wealth once and for all will obviously not stop the left/right pendulum swings -- those are forever and healthy -- but it will finally suck all the toxic racism out of them and allow those arguments to be a lot less emotional and vicious.
 
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Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

GrinCDXX said:
I'm sure there will still be plenty who put on the "shocked and outraged" routine because he laughed at it.
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The Freeper crowd will probably insist he'd already taken several hits in the bathroom, and that gay sex was involved. ;)
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Kepler said:
Have you seen the pictures from Rio?

They've got to start miscegenating.

An American 8 is a Brazilian 3.
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I've been there - it's not that disparate. You can't judge by the average jersey chaser they show in the stands. Everyone knows there are hot women at sporting events and ESPN isn't in the habit of showing ugos.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Slap Shot said:
I've been there - it's not that disparate. You can't judge by the average jersey chaser they show in the stands. Everyone knows there are hot women at sporting events and ESPN isn't in the habit of showing ugos.
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Fair nuff, though it's not an observation that began with this WC.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Kepler said:
Fair nuff, though it's not an observation that began with this WC.
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I think part of it is the allure, the exotic look, and that some of the features they have stand out. In Thailand the most beautiful women there blow me away, but the other end of the spectrum is worse than in the US imho. I liken it somewhat to the phrase, "Behind every hot chick there's a guy that's tired of her s**t".
 
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