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2nd Term Part 5: Big Brotha
- Thread starter geezer
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Re: 2nd Term Part 5: Big Brotha
Not in regards to the economy. US spending and employment will stop to some extent. That is less money spent...which means that fewer businesses break even. It is a total fallacy that the private sector will step up and spend more when there is less money spent by the state. The private sector froze up when spending dropped in 2008 and I know of no business that would say 'gosh, the gdp is dropping and there is less spending out there...I want to grow my business'.
The government needs to be trimmed, but there are sectors that develop fewer jobs than others and sectors that benefit our business community less than others. The only people that are happy with shutting down the govt is the tea party and other anarchists.
Not in regards to the economy. US spending and employment will stop to some extent. That is less money spent...which means that fewer businesses break even. It is a total fallacy that the private sector will step up and spend more when there is less money spent by the state. The private sector froze up when spending dropped in 2008 and I know of no business that would say 'gosh, the gdp is dropping and there is less spending out there...I want to grow my business'.
The government needs to be trimmed, but there are sectors that develop fewer jobs than others and sectors that benefit our business community less than others. The only people that are happy with shutting down the govt is the tea party and other anarchists.
Re: 2nd Term Part 5: Big Brotha
Just like the sequester, if it's not directly impacting you, it's easy to say no big deal. Par for the course who fight tooth and nail to retain subsidies for petroleum companies, but can't wait to poke holes in the security net for those fighting to survive.
Just like the sequester, if it's not directly impacting you, it's easy to say no big deal. Par for the course who fight tooth and nail to retain subsidies for petroleum companies, but can't wait to poke holes in the security net for those fighting to survive.
ExileOnDaytonStreet
Drunkard
Re: 2nd Term Part 5: Big Brotha
As pointed out on The Daily Show yesterday... the same people downplaying the impact of the shutdown were apoplectic over the sequester resulting in canceled White House tours.
As pointed out on The Daily Show yesterday... the same people downplaying the impact of the shutdown were apoplectic over the sequester resulting in canceled White House tours.
Re: 2nd Term Part 5: Big Brotha
You guys are missing the point. Obviously it's a big deal to those federal employees who are working for a dysfunctional boss, and now face the uncertainty of the loss of a paycheck. My point was that contrary to what the news media, and some posters here, want you to believe, the shutdown and the debt ceiling issue are not some apocalyptic event, or "crisis."
You guys are missing the point. Obviously it's a big deal to those federal employees who are working for a dysfunctional boss, and now face the uncertainty of the loss of a paycheck. My point was that contrary to what the news media, and some posters here, want you to believe, the shutdown and the debt ceiling issue are not some apocalyptic event, or "crisis."
P
Priceless
Guest
Re: 2nd Term Part 5: Big Brotha
There are now enough votes among Republicans (17) to join the Democrats in passing a clean CR and ending the shutdown. We just need the Boner to bring it to the floor.
There are now enough votes among Republicans (17) to join the Democrats in passing a clean CR and ending the shutdown. We just need the Boner to bring it to the floor.
Re: 2nd Term Part 5: Big Brotha
The short-term nature of this contest won't change decisions in the private sector across the board. I would think a company with govt ties might hold their breath for a few days but be confident this logjam breaks after everybody gets their picture taken at half empty tables.
The short-term nature of this contest won't change decisions in the private sector across the board. I would think a company with govt ties might hold their breath for a few days but be confident this logjam breaks after everybody gets their picture taken at half empty tables.
St. Clown
Liberal Rebel Scum, apparently
Re: 2nd Term Part 5: Big Brotha
There are too many unchanged variables, and too many short-term expectations for the private sector to change its spending levels. Yes, the public spending is down, but the tax rates have remained the same and the spending reductions will return to normal before the month ends - probably before the week ends. The Federal Reserve Bank is independent of the federal government's budget, so it's still participating in the purchasing of debt. There's no great swing in overall economic expectations, so there will be no great change in private sector practices. It's going to be lean for a few days, and you hope that your retail employers have the capacity to weather the storm in the short-term.
There are too many unchanged variables, and too many short-term expectations for the private sector to change its spending levels. Yes, the public spending is down, but the tax rates have remained the same and the spending reductions will return to normal before the month ends - probably before the week ends. The Federal Reserve Bank is independent of the federal government's budget, so it's still participating in the purchasing of debt. There's no great swing in overall economic expectations, so there will be no great change in private sector practices. It's going to be lean for a few days, and you hope that your retail employers have the capacity to weather the storm in the short-term.
unofan
Well-known member
If we default, the debt ceiling will certainly constitute a crisis under any definition of the term.
Re: 2nd Term Part 5: Big Brotha
Giant meteor hurtling towards earth = real problem
antibiotic resistant deadly flu spreading rapidly throughout the country = real problem
level of national debt = real problem
debt ceiling issue = not a real problem
Here is how I know. I have a real simple filtering system that I use to figure out whether one of these "crisis" is a real problem, or just something someone has ginned up for political purposes.
If the "problem" can be solved by these clowns we call Congress getting together, raising their hands and say "I vote that we don't have a problem anymore", and the "problem" is gone, we don't have a real problem. And that's what the debt ceiling is.
I control one house of Congress in Casa Hovey. The Mrs. controls the other. We have, through some heated negotiations over the years, agreed upon "debt ceilings." They have become the law of our house. Without casting any stones, I can also tell you this law has been violated by certain parties. This has lead to name calling, heated discussions, recrimination and the like. But it has been worked out.
Same way with this debt ceiling. Congress has set the taxes. Congress has appropriated money and taken on certain obligations. When this artificial debt ceiling is hit, here is what's going to happen. Obama is going to tell Treasury, go ahead and sell the bonds. Cruz, or some other clown will organize a lawsuit claiming that Treasury and Obama are breaking the law. Finally, the grownups in the Courts will get to tell them that you don't get to have an absurd result. You can't commit to certain obligations, then have taxes that generate not enough revenue. Pay your bills. No one is going to default (except for maybe me, unless I can figure out how to win a majority in both houses in Casa Hovey's next election).
Giant meteor hurtling towards earth = real problem
antibiotic resistant deadly flu spreading rapidly throughout the country = real problem
level of national debt = real problem
debt ceiling issue = not a real problem
Here is how I know. I have a real simple filtering system that I use to figure out whether one of these "crisis" is a real problem, or just something someone has ginned up for political purposes.
If the "problem" can be solved by these clowns we call Congress getting together, raising their hands and say "I vote that we don't have a problem anymore", and the "problem" is gone, we don't have a real problem. And that's what the debt ceiling is.
I control one house of Congress in Casa Hovey. The Mrs. controls the other. We have, through some heated negotiations over the years, agreed upon "debt ceilings." They have become the law of our house. Without casting any stones, I can also tell you this law has been violated by certain parties. This has lead to name calling, heated discussions, recrimination and the like. But it has been worked out.
Same way with this debt ceiling. Congress has set the taxes. Congress has appropriated money and taken on certain obligations. When this artificial debt ceiling is hit, here is what's going to happen. Obama is going to tell Treasury, go ahead and sell the bonds. Cruz, or some other clown will organize a lawsuit claiming that Treasury and Obama are breaking the law. Finally, the grownups in the Courts will get to tell them that you don't get to have an absurd result. You can't commit to certain obligations, then have taxes that generate not enough revenue. Pay your bills. No one is going to default (except for maybe me, unless I can figure out how to win a majority in both houses in Casa Hovey's next election).
unofan
Well-known member
Default caused by debt ceiling = real problem.
The debt ceiling itself is simply an idiotic tool to provide political points for the minority party. You're correct as far as that.
But when the consequences involve real world financial implications, that becomes more than just a political issue. There have been no indications so far what Obama will do come 10/17 if congress fails to act, so we have to presume default is still a potential option.
Re: 2nd Term Part 5: Big Brotha
The Republicans will get killed on this thing. No doubt. As far as I'm concerned, anything that has the possibility of shaking this nation out of its debt-induced stupor is promising, as we'll default sooner or later on the trajectory we're on, it's just a matter of how soon.
The Republicans will get killed on this thing. No doubt. As far as I'm concerned, anything that has the possibility of shaking this nation out of its debt-induced stupor is promising, as we'll default sooner or later on the trajectory we're on, it's just a matter of how soon.
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Re: 2nd Term Part 5: Big Brotha
The country isn't going to default. The Republicans want to hold the debt ceiling hostage, for what advantage still isn't clear to me. Obama wants the default option on the table because it creates an artificial crisis, trumpeted by the talking heads, he can blame on the Republicans and create political pressure of his own.
The country isn't going to default. The Republicans want to hold the debt ceiling hostage, for what advantage still isn't clear to me. Obama wants the default option on the table because it creates an artificial crisis, trumpeted by the talking heads, he can blame on the Republicans and create political pressure of his own.
Re: 2nd Term Part 5: Big Brotha
Agreed, in the short term. Long term, that's a different story.
Agreed, in the short term. Long term, that's a different story.
unofan
Well-known member
If you've been paying attention at all, you'd know this has nothing to do with government spending levels.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: 2nd Term Part 5: Big Brotha
LOL
You haven't been paying attention. The Repubs got their budget number and still shutdown the governent over a CR that basically only required a budget number. You honestly think they're not going to add Obamacare, abortion, and whatever else they can throw in at the debt ceiling? And do you honestly think Obama is going to be stupid enough to cave to those morons?
The only way we don't default is by an Executive Order of some sort. And the GOP will go NUTS if that happens cause they're already ticked that Obama has had to go Executive Order multiple times because the GOP absolutley refused to govern ANYTHING.
LOL
You haven't been paying attention. The Repubs got their budget number and still shutdown the governent over a CR that basically only required a budget number. You honestly think they're not going to add Obamacare, abortion, and whatever else they can throw in at the debt ceiling? And do you honestly think Obama is going to be stupid enough to cave to those morons?
The only way we don't default is by an Executive Order of some sort. And the GOP will go NUTS if that happens cause they're already ticked that Obama has had to go Executive Order multiple times because the GOP absolutley refused to govern ANYTHING.
Re: 2nd Term Part 5: Big Brotha
If I say to my family that we're not going to charge more than $5000 on a credit card, and then the balance hits $5000, and I say, ok, we're not going to charge more than $10,000 on the credit card, the problem is not the argument my wife and I have over the move from $5000 to $10,000. And we're not going to default as we go past that $5000 number. The problem is that at some point we will hit a number that we can't service, and then we will default.
Same with the country. Whatever the debt ceiling is now, if we go past that number we're not going to default, whether we agree to raise that ceiling or not. If default were a real threat as we cross that divide, we ought not even be talking about raising it. But somewhere down the line there will be a number. We're not close yet, but someday we will be.
Of course. The Republicans will throw everything into the negotiations over the debt ceiling. And they'll get none of it. There won't be any deal by the 17th. And there won't be and default on the 17th or after, at least not in the foreseeable future. I do agree that the country does need to get a handle on the debt overall.
If I say to my family that we're not going to charge more than $5000 on a credit card, and then the balance hits $5000, and I say, ok, we're not going to charge more than $10,000 on the credit card, the problem is not the argument my wife and I have over the move from $5000 to $10,000. And we're not going to default as we go past that $5000 number. The problem is that at some point we will hit a number that we can't service, and then we will default.
Same with the country. Whatever the debt ceiling is now, if we go past that number we're not going to default, whether we agree to raise that ceiling or not. If default were a real threat as we cross that divide, we ought not even be talking about raising it. But somewhere down the line there will be a number. We're not close yet, but someday we will be.
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