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2026 Elections: To the Midterms and Beyond!

unofan said:
FWIW, 4 years ago they were about 370k early votes in Iowa. There's nearly 500k this year, slightly less than 2 years ago but still high for a midterm. Best guess is that's about 40% of the total votes that will be cast. The split is not as pronounced pro-Dem as 4 years ag, but independents voting early have jumped by about 50%.

Polk County (City of Des Moines) usually reports its absentee count very quickly, so there will be a huge blue mirage that will diminish throughout the night.

Key will be how big that early lead is. 30k or less and it's going to be a long night. 50k or better and the Dems are going to have a really good night. 40k and there are going to be some tight calls.
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We’ll know the outcome in Alaska by…

Let’s just pencil in Thanksgiving.

I kinda joke but also am serious, it might take a while. It does have to be done by December 1st because that’s when the new Governor’s term starts.
 
Kepler said:
More like Super Bowl Sunday.
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It won’t go that far.

I think almost everyone is missing the impact the Governor’s race is going to have on the Senate race and any shenanigans. If the Democrat JKT wins (as he is likely to), a lot of the shenanigans will either stop or be dead in the water immediately come December 1st.
 
Something similar could happen in TX where remarkably the Dems might take the Governor's mansion as well as a Senate seat.

Is the TX state leg a GOP supermajority? I can imagine them ratfucking a Dem gov like the NC leg did to Cooper.

Edit:

Texas State Senate (31 total seats)
    • Republicans: 20 seats (65%)
    • Democrats: 11 seats (35%)

Texas House of Representatives (150 total seats)
    • Republicans: 88 seats (59%)
    • Democrats: 62 seats (41%)
 
Something in general to look at after the dust clears. A state government trifecta is a term to describe when one political party holds majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office. A state government triplex is a term to describe when one political party holds the following three positions in a state's government: governor, attorney general, and secretary of state.

Currently:

There are 23 Republican trifectas, 16 Democratic trifectas, and 11 divided governments where neither party holds trifecta control.

There are 24 Republican triplexes, 21 Democratic triplexes, and 5 divided governments where neither party holds triplex control.

In a true blue wave, we ought to be able to whittle that down.
 
I know I shouldn't interact with the bots sending me political texts, but when one told me "We deserve leaders who reject antisemitism, stand against hate, and bring people together.
In your heart, you know Mike Rogers is the better choice"

I couldn't resist replying "In my brain I know El-Sayed is the better choice"
 
For those who didn't vote by mail, any of you seeing the Gestapo...errr ICE at your polling sites? I assume not given how lily white most of board's remaining membership is.

Markwayneheinrichwhatever claims they will only be present if there is a "threat". Whatever that means.
 
FadeToBlack&Gold said:
For those who didn't vote by mail, any of you seeing the Gestapo...errr ICE at your polling sites? I assume not given how lily white most of board's remaining membership is.

Markwayneheinrichwhatever claims they will only be present if there is a "threat". Whatever that means.
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Not in White Cloud. We're white on rice in a glass of milk on a paper plate in a snowstorm white.
 
FadeToBlack&Gold said:
For those who didn't vote by mail, any of you seeing the Gestapo...errr ICE at your polling sites? I assume not given how lily white most of board's remaining membership is.

Markwayneheinrichwhatever claims they will only be present if there is a "threat". Whatever that means.
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Nothing in my podunk little city. Turnout was steady but unfortunately the more democratic precinct only had 3 people voting. There was quite a few younger people but that is probably not a good sign either.
 
Early is early is early, but Booker is currently running 14-18 points better against Barr in some eastern Kentucky counties than Harris did against Trump with more than 40% of the vote counted. 73-24 Trump in Anderson County is currently 65-33 Barr.
Now, KY-06 is a +15 Trump district (albeit +15 Beshear with a bluer electorate in 2023), so IF this holds, that’s a toss-up in KY +06 with hopefully a bluer midterm electorate.

That’s a massive if.

Laurel County is +29 Barr with 48% of vote counted that went for Trump +50.
 
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Alright so looks like that was early voting, which of course skews democratic in KY too. Casey County is now 73% in and Booker is running 16 points better than Harris. 16 points better in Laurel County with 71% in. Not enough for Booker to win, but hopefully continues to hold elsewhere in KY-06.
 
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