2024 Elections: One Last Chance for Democracy

[state of hockey]

Michigan is on pace for record turnout as well. I don’t think these are going to be new people turning out to vote for Trump.
Slap, find something Rosenberg, Bonier, and some of those Democratic pollsters are posting. I’ve seen all positive stuff.
For me? It’s the vibes. Feels like it’s going to go our way today, thanks to a strong finish from an extremely disciplined, well-oiled campaign machine.

A machine that just emailed me that they need another $47.

I’m not mad it genuinely made me laugh.

 

[dxmnkd316]

NE senate?

Done

 

[dxmnkd316]

NE senate?

Actually, this will be interesting to see if it breaks the spreadsheet. I basically swapped the Dem and Independent columns. We'll see if it still works. The only state that has returns I can test on is NH so...

 

[rufus]

Possible. Trump is finishing about as well as the Yankees.

Finishing about as well as he did with Stormy.

 

[rufus]

Michigan is on pace for record turnout as well. I don’t think these are going to be new people turning out to vote for Trump.
Slap, find something Rosenberg, Bonier, and some of those Democratic pollsters are posting. I’ve seen all positive stuff.
For me? It’s the vibes. Feels like it’s going to go our way today, thanks to a strong finish from an extremely disciplined, well-oiled campaign machine.

NH is expecting record turnout. Kamala +28?

 

[Bronco]

Trump already crying about Philly. Must be in trouble.

 

[Handyman]

A machine that just emailed me that they need another $47.

I’m not mad it genuinely made me laugh.

I have gotten like 4 texts and 2 emails...this is what happens when you raise a billion dollars!

 

[Handyman]

NH is expecting record turnout. Kamala +28?

I still can't believe that number...

 

[Handyman]

Michigan is on pace for record turnout as well. I don’t think these are going to be new people turning out to vote for Trump.
Slap, find something Rosenberg, Bonier, and some of those Democratic pollsters are posting. I’ve seen all positive stuff.
For me? It’s the vibes. Feels like it’s going to go our way today, thanks to a strong finish from an extremely disciplined, well-oiled campaign machine.

Rosenberg and Bonier have been bullish for days...they have been saying Trump's early turnout is soft despite what the media narrative was.

 

[Jimjamesak]

I still can't believe that number...

The exit polling data starting to come out is close to that poll. Democracy being the biggest issue, women being a larger portion of the electorate.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Trump already crying about Philly. Must be in trouble.

Looking at the photos and videos of the long lines in Pennsylvania and Michigan, unless there’s a unprecedented break of young female voters towards Dump, it doesn’t look good for Dump.

 

[BassAle]

I still can't believe that number...

The poll also asked the same voters who they voted for in 2020. The same pool of people went for Harris by 3% more than Biden so it’s believable.

 

[RaceBoarder]

So 50 minutes away from the 1st polls closing...

I assume some of the immediate calls will be as follows:

DUMP - SC, WV
Harris - NH, MA, VT, DC

Anything else looking super blatant one way or the other currently? Probably could pencil in Indiana for DUMP too, but I don't know if they are on EST or CST with daylight savings time being over.

 

[Bronco]

So 50 minutes away from the 1st polls closing...

I assume some of the immediate calls will be as follows:

DUMP - SC, WV
Harris - NH, MA, VT, DC

Anything else looking super blatant one way or the other currently? Probably could pencil in Indiana for DUMP too, but I don't know if they are on EST or CST with daylight savings time being over.

I think Indiana is still on 1860s time.

 

[dxmnkd316]

So something changed from 2022 to 2024 where I can't cleanly paste tables anymore... I'll give it a shot in chrome as well but doesn't seem to work in Edge. Anyways...

Here is what the summary update will look like:

The Over/underperform value is the % the Democrat (or Independent in the case of NE Senate) would need to statewide in each county to win by only 1 vote. Negative is good here. It means the D would need to underperform current returns.

The Trend is a new value this year. It represents whether the over/underperform is improving or worsening. Good is good. Bad is bad. [TABLE="width: 837"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl81, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]As of:[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: #D9D9D9, colspan: 17"]President[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl101, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]Nov 5 4:50 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]AZ[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]FL[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]GA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]IA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]KS[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]MI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]MN[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]NC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]NH[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]NM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]NV[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]OH[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]PA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]SC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]TX[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]VA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl97, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]WI[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]Over/Underperform[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]-[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]Trend[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]-[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl83, bgcolor: white"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: #D9D9D9, colspan: 11"]Senate[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: white"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: #D9D9D9, colspan: 3"]Governor[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: white"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl91, bgcolor: white"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl94, bgcolor: white"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]AZ[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]FL[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]MI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]MN[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]MT[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]NE[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]NV[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]OH[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]PA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]TX[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]WI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl98, bgcolor: white"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]IN[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]NC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]NH[/TD]
[TD="class: xl99, bgcolor: white"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: white"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]Over/Underperform[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86, bgcolor: white"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl89, bgcolor: white"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl92, bgcolor: white"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #D9D9D9"]Trend[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl87, bgcolor: white"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: white"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl93, bgcolor: white"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


For individual races, I'm not sure if I'll be able to post full county breakdowns or create a summary for each state. I guess we'll see as returns come in!

 

[Jimjamesak]

So 50 minutes away from the 1st polls closing...

I assume some of the immediate calls will be as follows:

DUMP - SC, WV
Harris - NH, MA, VT, DC

Anything else looking super blatant one way or the other currently? Probably could pencil in Indiana for DUMP too, but I don't know if they are on EST or CST with daylight savings time being over.

SC might be one to watch considering it’s between NC and GA. Dump is almost certain to win but the totals could give a clue for NC and GA.

 

[Handyman]

Michigan SoS tweets "turnout if off the charts".

NBC News exit poll shows Trump favorability with white voters went from 57% in 2020 to 49% today.

If that is even close to true I am not sure how long they can pretend he isn't completely screwed. He is getting killed with Women and he won't be making up enough ground with other demographics. An 8 point drop amongst his core demographic has to be seen as a death knell if it holds past the early exit polling.

I did see some fun videos from SC a couple weeks back where the young women at the University of South Carolina all said they supported her because of Abortion. That won't be enough to flip it but its still fun to watch

Still a long way to go but if he is already ranting about Philly then they are getting troubling info there as well.

 

[bronconick]

So 50 minutes away from the 1st polls closing...

I assume some of the immediate calls will be as follows:

DUMP - SC, WV
Harris - NH, MA, VT, DC

Anything else looking super blatant one way or the other currently? Probably could pencil in Indiana for DUMP too, but I don't know if they are on EST or CST with daylight savings time being over.

I like to play around with the 270towin site and poll closing timers to simulate the EC
Probably called within about an hour if we're counting takes as long as pre 2020
7pm:
Trump: Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina
Harris: Vermont
730pm
Trump: West Virginia
8pm:
Trump: Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma
Harris: Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Maine, (3 of 4) New Jersey, Rhode Island, D.C
830pm
Trump: Arkansas
9pm:
Trump: Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska (4 of 5), North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming
Harris: Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York
10pm
Trump: Montana, Utah
11pm
Trump: Idaho
Harris: California, Oregon, Washington
12am
Harris: Hawaii

 

[aparch]

MSNBC called for Kornacki about an hour ago (per people posting on Threads). Feels too early for his appearance.

Who's the producer on tonight's programming, Dusty Baker?

 

[Jimjamesak]

MSNBC called for Kornacki about an hour ago (per people posting on Threads). Feels too early for his appearance.

Who's the producer on tonight's programming, Dusty Baker?

They have a YouTube livestream of him.