Call me when Politico isn't run by German Right Wingers...
Its early voting everything is running weird right now. It is fun and frustrating to try and watch "analysts" break down why numbers are the way they are based on one specific stat. Like a story I saw out of NC where "Republicans are early voting in higher numbers" but the breakdown was 1/3 GOP, 1/3 Dem, 1/3 Unaffiliated. They seemed to ignore the 3rd group or what it might mean it was just doom and gloom over the other 2/3rds. Then they pivoted to saying its because Rural Black Voters havent voted yet in numbers expected because of the Trans stuff with no real evidence to back it up. I wonder if there might be other reasons rural voters in North Carolina might be having issues early voting...not to mention there was no mention of gender breakdown in any way.
(I havent seen anything out of Nevada because I am not actively looking for anything and never open my SM apps)
It is weird that women are being ignored so heavily and part of that is how they vote historically. Despite at least the last 4 cycles proving that trying to use historical trends means you are going to be off significantly they all still seem to be going with the historical trends to try to predict something that is not predictable. I mean it is one thing for us to play that game but pundits and professional pollsters should be over that stuff by now. Previous trends don't matter anymore this election is weird and upside down. There is just no way to know the effect certain issues will have on getting people out or voting one way or the other. Assuming low propensity voters will come out (they are low propensity for a reason) or that certain demographics will stay loyal and true is impossible at this point. Even party affiliation isn't really a reliable indicator right now because of the various issues. I get there is a need to fill content and scare the bejesus out of the voters on every side but this stuff amounts to trying to explain who will win a game 2 weeks out when we don't know who will even be playing for each team, what the weather will be like, what the conditions of the stadium will be or how the games in the interim will play out. Weird to watch.